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  • Betting On The First NASH Blockbuster Drug: Dump Intercept And Buy Genfit [View article]
    Do you know if NASH is a life threatening indication, or just something that can be "borne" with say, NSAIDS, bloodthinners or other simpler medications?
    Jun 20, 2015. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Vs. Taiwan Semi - It's The Client, Stupid [View article]
    Much food for thought in this article, but my first reaction is to ask 'aren't the two companies on entirely different paths, i.e. while TSM is continuing to specialise in making power/heat efficient ARM chips, INTC is rapidly transitioning to becoming a "total system" supplier which would include the X86 core chip/s, key software such as security features, photonics connectivity, and even memory and storage embedded within them.

    Consequently, it would seem, over the long term, INTC is a far better play, esp with its higher margin per $ revenue.
    Jun 19, 2015. 04:27 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Betting On The First NASH Blockbuster Drug: Dump Intercept And Buy Genfit [View article]
    While I found this article interesting in terms of potential risks associated with ICPT's therapy candidate for NASH, esp vs this French company called Genfit (whom I'd never heard of before, but this is ok), I was surprised the article never mentioned any of the other "runners" in this race, i.e GALT (Galectin Therapeutics), RPTP (Raptor Pharmaceuticals) and that behemoth with deep expertise and cash, GILD (Gilead) the latter of which does know a thing or two about liver disease.

    Is there any way to have the prospects of NASH therapy from all of the above participants vs just the first two?
    Jun 19, 2015. 04:06 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disruptive Effect Of Open Source Startups [View article]
    Thank you Mr. Tunguz for this timely article, it introduces entirely new names to my 'radar screen' to watch over. It is timely for me because I developed some interest in RHT recently, and have been trying to find out more about OpenStack consortium, and its product and service offerings and whether this huge consortium does actually pose a serious threat to the likes of Oracle, Microsoft. I am naturally bullish on both of the latter companies.

    As I listened to RHT earnings conference call yesterday, I was struck by one comment that the CEO made in response to an analyst question as to whether by now, Open Source is ready for prime time, as so much of this 'stream' is now a known known in the IT community. The CEO responded, quite surprisingly in my opinion, earnestly, that he still does not see it being prime time ready yet, as most companies have still not rolled out OpenSource for mission-critical applications within businesses, at least in large companies. In short, it made me think 'if it is not ready for primetime now, when will it ever be?'

    In the meantime, I was struck by how bullish Oracle was in their conference call a day earlier, and they are, to me at least, as proprietary as you can ever find: they now effectively 'own and control' Java, MySQL, and consequently, they effectively own the juiciest parts of the entire business apps eco-system, and now even the hardware.

    In the case of Microsoft, they too are entirely proprietary with their Windows eco-system, and while they are open to Android and iOS, they don't seem to care too much about OpenStack.

    I'd be grateful for your comments, and how you see the prospects for OpenStack vs the above, and possibly other proprietary players I have not mentioned above.
    Jun 19, 2015. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Hewlett-Packard Stock Worth Considering Right Now? [View article]
    I wonder, since your article does not specifically mention it, if your EBITDA, EPS figures are GAAP or non-GAAP based. I fear, if they are non-GAAP based, they have excluded substantial cash costs of repeated restructuring costs, which is a game many on Wall Street have played, but are, imo, seriously distortionary to a company's underlying financial performance, and therefore, valuation.

    In sum, with so much intense competition from the likes of:
    - Apple, Dell, Lenovo, even Microsoft, etc in laptop and desktop PCs,
    - Cisco, Oracle, IBM, Lenovo, SMCI, etc in servers, including those used in hyperscale data centres,
    - an army of Japanese, Korean and even Chinese low cost printer and printer accessory suppliers,
    - the likes of IBM, Accenture, CSC, SAIC, RHT, Oracle and so many other global, regional and national systems integrators and IT consultants,
    - the likes of SPLK, DATA providing far more focused solutions in big data analytics
    I fear HP's future for both HP Inc as well as HP Enterprise are under serious threat, esp from a "take no prisoners" Oracle.
    Jun 19, 2015. 07:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: The Purple Swan [View article]
    RHT's revenue and earnings came in above, with healthy 20%+ growth, but of course, its size is a lot smaller than the likes of Oracle or Microsoft. Still, I feel corporate customers are spending on IT, and this surely has to benefit MU and INTC in the current quarter.
    Again, I feel the corporate Data Centre should have been good for both players, and it is quite possible that even PC Corporate sales did not fall off a cliff big time. For MU, it was probably a good quarter too, as certainly lots of servers shipped into the data centres should have absorbed lots of DRAM and NAND.
    Jun 19, 2015. 04:51 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: The Purple Swan [View article]
    For some reason I cannot yet explain, I "feel" RHT's earnings call in an hour or so will be even more telling of the promised land for the likes of MU and INTC. It'll be a late night "watch and brief" for me, but I feel it's going to be worth it.
    Jun 18, 2015. 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: The Purple Swan [View article]
    Also read Oracle's earnings conference call on SA (audio not available yet), a painful exercise to say the least, but in sum, the relevant highlights are:
    - their business overall was hugely impacted by currency, but strikingly, US business was very strong;
    - they are giving up licence revenues for annuity subscription based revenues, big time;
    - this annuity move also includes a portion of their hardware revenues;
    - they had a great quarter for their hardware revenues, as they came in better than forecast. More relevant, their Engineered Systems, which has tons and tons of NAND and DRAM, such as
    did very well.

    All in all, I "feel" we should feel optimistic about MU especially, and since their systems also contain many X86 chips, I assume it is great for Intel corporate business as well.

    Today, it's Red Hat's turn, which should also tell a lot about corporate customers.
    Jun 18, 2015. 06:29 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Joins Oracle Death By 1,000 Cuts [View article]
    Sometimes, I tell myself, too little knowledge or preconceived notions, bents or slants are a dangerous thing. Again, if you wish to check out how Oracle has "mismanaged" its business through rampant M&A, as you suggest, I suggest the following simple graph, whether it is for 5 years, or better still, 10 years:{"comparisons":"MSFT,... SAP IBM HP MSFT,SAP,IBM,CSCO","co...

    But if one actually had the inside "track" to see how much depth and breath, both vertically and horizontally spread they are, you'd be floored. But then again, I have no "evil" bent, slant, my humble comments. Another hour or so left.....
    Jun 17, 2015. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Questions Oracle Must Answer When It Reports Earnings On Wednesday [View article]
    Alas, I have following comments about this article:
    a) I suspect Cloud to this author may mean "Public Cloud" while I deeply suspect, to Mr. Hurd, he includes "Private" and "Hybrid" clouds. This distinction is quite important, as while one is tempted to assume that by moving their business to the Cloud could imply that Oracle has successfully "down"sold (yes, it would typically mean lower revenues per user, or licence, etc) to move everything to the Public Cloud, in reality, as I suspect, Oracle simply means that they are effectively leaving things as they are in "Private Clouds", i.e. in company data centres, etc but are in effect, allowing Oracle access to provide key security, data management, manage virtualisation, analytics, IMDB features that cannot be managed by the client IT Dept alone. This is a key distinction, as Oracle is disrupting its software like many others in the industry so that their key software are actually increasingly, continuously controlled/updated/ refreshed from/by Redwood Shores, CA;
    b) if one wants to learn how exactly Oracle is disrupting, it is useful to listen to Mr. McDermott's recent presentation of his SAP approach to all of the issues raised in the article. He is quite clear that IAAS is not a particularly high margin business to be attracted to and devote lots of capex, etc to. In addition, both SAP and Salesforce acknowledge that Oracle's Database (and associated tools, etc) is here to stay, and for large cap companies, is indeed critical foundation software for everything to run smoothly, from these companies applications to BI, big data analytics, and even easier, secure SAAS and PAAS real-time "runs"!
    c) finally, I repeat what I wrote earlier to another article, Mr. Ellison's self-demotion to CTO is one of the most under-followed aspects of what is really going on at Oracle. As we speak, this CTO is seriously disrupting Oracle to disrupt business prospects for the entire non-Oracle eco-system, such as Salesforce, Workday, SAP, and dare I suggest, even the likes of IBM, HP, VMW, RHT and CSCO. We'll not "see" this effect come through in immediate quarters perhaps, but for sure, I feel competitors will feel "intense" pain in quarters further out!
    Jun 17, 2015. 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Joins Oracle Death By 1,000 Cuts [View article]
    This highly slanted article effectively ignores key financial points, which have been pointed out by comments above:
    a) growth has been severely affected by currency movements;
    b) key recent acquisitions such as MICROS will only become highly accretive in future quarters, as the software and installed base is slowly but surely converted to carry more and more Oracle software.

    Another key point, that Mr. Larry Ellison has mysteriously demoted himself to being CTO is entirely ignored by the author. His experience, aggressiveness at being #1, without taking prisoners, and disrupting and disrupting everything that needs to be disrupted, and yet be so smoothly articulate at presenting Oracle's vision to customers, employees, without ever falling prey to the usual government agencies, such as USA's anti-trust or falling prey to China's written and unwritten rules about competition, monopoly, data snooping, such as how Microsoft, Qualcomm, Cisco, Google have suffered. These are real skills, which only Mr. Ellison and his team possess, alone in the industry.

    I do believe the last comment is what will carry Oracle through, and I would venture to say, in the current "messy" IT environment, with so many clouds, Oracle shines through with practically a 1 stop shopping centre.

    We only have a few hours to find out.....if they've made a good start!
    Jun 17, 2015. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Game Of NAND: SanDisk's Uncertain Crown [View article]
    I listened in on SM's presentation at one of the recent conference calls, and came away with the simple thought that these guys "think/plan/act" different, i.e. they are more deliberate and pedantic in their R&D and manufacturing plans, and to this extent, they will take their time to enter 3D NAND. For now at least, I have no doubt that they will successfully transition to 3D NAND, at their own speed, and since the likes of Apple, Chinese players, HP, Dell, IBM and the entire span of in-memory database players would always want a 2nd and 3rd supply source, Samsung and Sandisk will always a role on the NAND stage.
    Jun 17, 2015. 07:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: The Purple Swan [View article]
    Happy (and mighty relieved) to report ADBE reported great revenues and earnings, and momentum continues to future quarters. To me, the results reflect 2 things:
    - large companies are continuing to spend, esp on advertising, marketing & IT;
    - ADBE products and services at customer sites need lots of CPU as well as memory and storage power, since their adverts, reports, instruction manuals, engineering drawings, etc are all prepared, published on powerful workstations (PCs) and distributed, curated and stored on highly secure servers which require lots of the above.

    In short, I believe corporate PC, server and related spending did not likely fall off a massive cliff in Q2. Tomorrow is giant Oracle, which should have another telling corporate IT spending story....
    Jun 16, 2015. 04:23 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: The Purple Swan [View article]
    With so many red coloured dots all rapidly connecting together to point a steep line pointed downwards for MU stock price, I'm going to be spending a lot of my time listening to the following companies' upcoming earnings announcements:
    a) Adobe Systems due tomorrow after NY close 16/6/2015:
    b) Oracle Corp due Wed after NY close 17/6/2015:
    c) Red Hat due Thur after NY close 18/6/2015:
    d) Accenture due following Thur after NY close 26/6/2015
    Although none of them is a direct chip player, a lot can be gleaned from their results on the outlook for corporate IT spending, esp wrt cloud, storage, memory and data centre spending.
    Everywhere I look, it says MU is scheduled to announce its quarterly earnings on 23rd June.....except on MU investor relations page!
    Jun 15, 2015. 02:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: The Purple Swan [View article]
    Nice, esp when the "plot" thickens, while the proverbial silicon chip's layer "thins", even if they "thicken" in 3D terms....what a miracle of continuing human ingenuity, inventiveness, and we have so many sincere individuals on this website to go to great pains to learn, share, even while there is so much "suffering" (esp as MU investor) , without understanding why, etc.

    I "suffer" too tonight, being overwhelmed with so much sudden, complex new knowledge to read, absorb and make sense of, etc, but it is nice to be able to "waste" away an entire beautiful, quiet evening listening to Chet Baker, Miles Davis, Edith Piaf, Nina Simone, among others while downing an entire bottle of red, between just the two of us....sometimes, it seems 3 is one too many!

    It is wonderful an entire community of human beings across this whole planet with entirely different backgrounds, life experiences, ethnicity, "bents", knowledge, "feels", ideas, but almost without exception, can "unite", almost laser focused to discover new investment "paths", on "getting ahead"....methinks, this is likely the only reason we are all here, but such joy it is just "to be, to be alive"......and to be part of the SA "magic".
    Jun 13, 2015. 03:37 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment