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alpine

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  • Alcoa Makes The Turn, Aluminum Is The New Steel [View article]
    AA stock price does not yet reflect the leverage built into the following:

    - the move of more and more smelting to its 50/50 JV in Saudi Arabia, where it obtains energy at a fraction of the cost, and labour from South Asia at a bargain;
    - as more and more earnings come from outside USA, AA will tax invert its earnings, so that the non-US earnings accrue to the bottom line at almost 0% tax rate;
    - finally, it is practically rid of all the high cost smelters in USA, Europe and elsewhere, and compete against the likes of Rusal and Chinalco with its Saudi Arabia JV "MAD weapon".
    Jul 11, 2014. 03:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Bet On Alcoa's Momentum? [View article]
    I feel AA's prospects are tethered to 2 strong, unbreakable "pulls":

    a) the Saudi JV which will become a showcase project for both AA and the Saudis, as it is the first time the latter party has come out to use its almost 0 cost energy sources to smelt Aluminium. Consequently, AA now has a strong response, worldwide, to compete with the best and the worst of low cost suppliers, including the likes of Rusal, Chinalco, etc;
    b) most of the industrial giants have come to rely on AA "Engineered" products to supply the growing need for low weight, low cost, low maintenance, composite "performance" materials in airframes, engines, trains, vehicles, medical equipment, etc etc. For all these requirements, AA, after years and years of painful and costly investment, is now, "war ready". Watch the next few years unfold.
    Finally, their "release" from being the permanent laggard of the Dow must be a major relief for KK and his coterie of mangers as well as suppliant directors.
    Apr 9, 2014. 08:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Alcoa A Buy Or A Sell At $9 Per Share? [View article]
    I believe AA's true value, long term, lies not in its numbers but the following well concealed, mostly unpolished "gems":

    a) it is the only credible western aluminium manufacturer that leading Western technology companies in the automotive, aerospace, transportation (think hi speed rail systems), medical and utilities industries have "eco-system" links to. This is a huge advantage as many precious trade secrets, process technology knowledge, etc simply cannot and will not be shared by the likes of BA, GM, BMW, GE with the likes of Chalco or Rusal;
    b) the past few financially painful years at AA have been about massive restructuring which has its financial performance deeply, and consequently, justifably, hurt its stock price;
    c) being forced out of the Dow has finally "freed" AA from being compared as a stable, timeless player with peers such as IBM, JPM, BA, GE, etc which it is not, at least not any longer. Its mentality has to shift to being a nimble, "just another" fast moving, dynamic industro-technology company shedding its "rusting" past and morphing itself to be a technology leader in key technologies;
    d) its Saudi JV is a key competitive advantage to lowering its overall manufacturing cost of its "rusting" smelting business, whose financial advantages will only emerge in the months and years to come; and finally,
    e) for all his shortcomings, the CEO is desperate to succeed, and has both high EQ and IQ to get the Company forward rapidly in the technology, more profitable "downstream" edges of the business

    so that AA will prove to be a winning investment over the next 5 years. If one believes in BA, one should go first with AA.....as the saying goes.
    Nov 11, 2013. 05:44 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa - Lower Aluminum Prices Do Not Bode Well For Third Quarter Earnings [View article]
    Good insight on the poor prospects for an already ailing company. But could the court actions in the USA to stop AA from operating those hydroelectric dams in certain states and collecting revenues from selling electricity to 3rd party customers be a further depressant to earnings going forward. If so, how certain is this event likely, and would it materially depress its meagre earnings prospects?

    I wonder when the CEO and Board will get their due, given that they have suffered a multitude of embarassements this quarter, esp their long overdue dismissal from the Dow.
    Oct 3, 2013. 04:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: Awaiting An Answer To 'Bounce Or Breakdown?' [View article]
    Interesting article as well as diverse comments on the poor prospects for this company under current management. Do you care to provide an update on this article, based on recent:
    - aluminum price trends,
    - latest AA short interest trends,
    - whether their JV in Saudi Arabia is in fact a good thing or bad thing for them financially, as it seems, on the one hand they can produce cheap aluminum there, but of what use is low cost aluminum in a market oversupplied with excess inventory, including recycled stuff;
    - demand impacts from Alcoa's end markets in autos and aircraft, etc and of course,
    - impact of its long overdue, but equally, thoroughly ignominous boot from DJIA.
    Sep 22, 2013. 05:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Earnings Strategies [View article]
    Given everything that is going on in China, the state of the aluminum industry, the depressed metal commodities market, the economic problems in core European markets and the rising price of energy complex worldwide, it would seem that AA is a perfect stock to short. Does anyone have latest information on this stock's short interest as of say, end June 2013?
    Jul 5, 2013. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Slips To Multi-Year Lows Ahead Of Q2 2013 Earnings [View article]
    Given everything that is going on in China, the state of the aluminum industry, the depressed metal commodities market, the problems in Europe and the rising price of energy complex, it would seem that AA is a perfect stock to short. Does anyone have latest information on this stock's short interest?
    Jul 5, 2013. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa's Earnings Preview: What Ugly Looks Like [View article]
    Given everything that is going on in China, the aluminum industry, the metal commodities market, the problems in Europe and the rising price of energy complex, it would seem that AA is a perfect stock to short. Does anyone have latest information on this stock's short interest?
    Jul 5, 2013. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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