Avoiding Wind Power Stocks: Geographic Diversity Debunked [View article]
Dear Mr. Petersen
I did the analysis using your data - and just for the heck of it I added an extra data-set (for Danish production). The result is given here: seekingalpha.com/user/...
I would argue, that while the facts, as you say, ideed show the inadequacy of a 5 (or 6)-member supergrid the facts (numbers) also demonstrate very clearly, that production is evening out - in almost perfect agreement with the central limit theorem. If oly one could connect 20 windparks...
Saudi Arabia Posts Major Oil Production Decline: Back on the Roller Coaster [View article]
Read Matthew Simmon's book. "Twilight in the Desert". Published in 2005 and immediately ridiculed from all sides. Critics are getting harder to come by every day.
Soon (within a few year) everyone will claim, that "they understood" peak-oil in 200X - while today >>90% still think that oil still has infinite supply.
--- "That, which is not sustainable, will not be sustained."
Avoiding Wind Power Stocks: Geographic Diversity Debunked [View article]
OK - your disdain of statistics brings to mind a wonderful episode of my favorite sitcom, "Yes Minister" ;-) Anyhow, would you be willing to share your spreadsheet, then? I'd be happy to play with the numbers and draw my own conclusions.
Avoiding Wind Power Stocks: Geographic Diversity Debunked [View article]
Excellent. Thanks for the clarification.
Your graphs certainly show some degree of averaging due to the pooling of diverse wind farms. (Look at the NSW data in the July graph!) I would however agree, that the overall averaging effect is somewhat disappointing.
On the other hand, can you present an argument why global averaging like this should not follow the central limit theorem?
To shed some light on this, could you perhaps state the statistical moments you've extracted from the data - i.e.: Mean power, and standard deviation on mean (or expectation value if you assumed Poisson statistics) for each of the five areas and for your two sets of pooled data. This should help quantify the drop in relative variance - if any.
Avoiding Wind Power Stocks: Geographic Diversity Debunked [View article]
John,
Great work! It is very commendable that you have collected this data - it makes for interesting discussion.
I might have missed to it somewhere, but how do you arrive at the 16 GW figure? When I sum the quoted nameplate capacities I find 8.7 GW - so where is the factor missing factor 1.8 hiding?
Are you actually implying that Obama (or whoever happens to be president) is the source of money, or are you just making a refined joke?
If you were just being sarcastic, which I hope, the joke is on me. If you are serious, which I strongly doubt, could you please elaborate on how Obama produces money?
The real problem is that people don't understand what money is and - more importantly - where it comes from (who controls its quantity). People therefore project the common (and sound) experience that working off debt/becoming free of debt is a good thing onto business, government etc. BUT, when all money represents debt, paying off debt would be a deflationary disaster (there would *be* no money at all).
I personally know several otherwise smart people who have college degrees in national economics and who don't know/understand this. And worse - they cannot imagine a different system (e.g. one where a dollar would represent *value* instead of debt). I think the reason that monetary theory is not even taught in college is largely because the debt-money system has been great during the massive global growth period that was the last 400 years, but now - with real constraints on growth given by availability of natural resources the game has changed.
In a post-growth world, the debt money system is bankrupt by design. It is *totally* irrelevant if you are left or right on the political spectrum.
We are absolutely without a permanent monetary system. This should be the only priority for world leaders.
Of course, the system is not going to be changed - exept perhaps in isolated places like Iceland where the average man has been so obviously and brutally raped by the banksters and their puppets (politicians) that he has figured out the "something" must be changed with the system - he just does not know what, since he does not understand the difference between *value* money and debt-money.
The good news is that if you understand the system predicting the (macro)-future becomes almost trivial and you can make tons of money by joining the gang-rape of the average citizen who has no clue despite perhaps being intelligent and well educated. People like us, like our government, suck *value* (not money) out of other peoples retirement savings, etc. Like stealing candy from a baby - except this baby doesn't even know it's being taken to the cleaners - it's too busy discussing politics liberal/conservative/the next president... WHO CARES??
The *only* relevant question people should ask is: "Who controls the money supply?" If they did that, the World would be a much better place...
Revisiting Kandi: Why I Remain Confident in This Stock [View article]
Aurthur,
My rhetorical question was directed at etwon44. Thanks largely to your initial 4 articles, I have a significant position in KNDI, to which I might even add more when sanity returns to the market for Chinese small caps.
Other stocks I either own or consider are in the fields of wind energy e.g. APWR, MY, 2208 photovoltaics e.g. STP, CSUN, JASO, TSL, DQ batteries and storage e.g. ABAT, CSGH
As you can see from the choice of sectors - I think non-fossil energy will grow as far as the eye can see - especially in China!
KNDI seems a unique play in the EV-market in China. That's why I am grateful for your pitch in those four articles - despite the current loss in the position.
Revisiting Kandi: Why I Remain Confident in This Stock [View article]
As you serious? Can't you see the banksters behind the scene? Any small-cap china stock you can find has been beaten down to insane levels.
I own (and continue to accumulate) several Chinese positions where the companies have (one or more of): - a 2010 PE of less than 7 - some less than 3.5 - a price/book far below 1 - a price to sales at approx 0.5 - typical CAGR of 35-100% (for 3+ years)
If you calculate PEGs, it is almost criminal. KNDI may or may not be a "Microsoft" in the early 80's-type investment but if you diversify to other china-cleantech companies you will get a handsome return, no matter what. PE ratios below 5 galore. What's not to like
Spot on. Anyone interested in the history of the FED should watch "The Money Masters" - well worth the 3.5 hours it takes. video.google.com/video...
For understanding why the monetary system is bankrupt by design (!!) watch "Money as Debt" and/or "Money as Debt II - Promises unleashed" video.google.com/video...
--- Once you understand that the FED is a private for-profit company (not part of government), every single action of the FED in recent years makes perfect sense. Anyone complaining about how stupid the FED is acting has simply not understood what the FED is and whom it serves.
Anyone who thinks the problem is "fiat" money and that gold is the only solution should check out the "The secret of Oz": youtube.com/watch?v=7q...
--- The winners will be those who understand the game they play.
Wind Power Investors Should Also Be Transmission Investors [View article]
I've written an instablog which expands the argument:
seekingalpha.com/user/...
The conclusion is that there is a clear averaging effect in this supergrid.
Avoiding Wind Power Stocks: Geographic Diversity Debunked [View article]
A inter-continental supergrid is a fantasy. A trans-continental supergrid may not be.
Avoiding Wind Power Stocks: Geographic Diversity Debunked [View article]
seekingalpha.com/user/...
Avoiding Wind Power Stocks: Geographic Diversity Debunked [View article]
I did the analysis using your data - and just for the heck of it I added an extra data-set (for Danish production).
The result is given here:
seekingalpha.com/user/...
I would argue, that while the facts, as you say, ideed show the inadequacy of a 5 (or 6)-member supergrid the facts (numbers) also demonstrate very clearly, that production is evening out - in almost perfect agreement with the central limit theorem.
If oly one could connect 20 windparks...
Saudi Arabia Posts Major Oil Production Decline: Back on the Roller Coaster [View article]
Published in 2005 and immediately ridiculed from all sides. Critics are getting harder to come by every day.
Soon (within a few year) everyone will claim, that "they understood" peak-oil in 200X - while today >>90% still think that oil still has infinite supply.
---
"That, which is not sustainable, will not be sustained."
Avoiding Wind Power Stocks: Geographic Diversity Debunked [View article]
Anyhow, would you be willing to share your spreadsheet, then? I'd be happy to play with the numbers and draw my own conclusions.
Avoiding Wind Power Stocks: Geographic Diversity Debunked [View article]
Your graphs certainly show some degree of averaging due to the pooling of diverse wind farms. (Look at the NSW data in the July graph!) I would however agree, that the overall averaging effect is somewhat disappointing.
On the other hand, can you present an argument why global averaging like this should not follow the central limit theorem?
To shed some light on this, could you perhaps state the statistical moments you've extracted from the data - i.e.:
Mean power, and standard deviation on mean (or expectation value if you assumed Poisson statistics)
for each of the five areas and for your two sets of pooled data. This should help quantify the drop in relative variance - if any.
Avoiding Wind Power Stocks: Geographic Diversity Debunked [View article]
Great work! It is very commendable that you have collected this data - it makes for interesting discussion.
I might have missed to it somewhere, but how do you arrive at the 16 GW figure? When I sum the quoted nameplate capacities I find 8.7 GW - so where is the factor missing factor 1.8 hiding?
U.S. Economic Pessimism Jumps [View article]
Are you actually implying that Obama (or whoever happens to be president) is the source of money, or are you just making a refined joke?
If you were just being sarcastic, which I hope, the joke is on me.
If you are serious, which I strongly doubt, could you please elaborate on how Obama produces money?
U.S. Economic Pessimism Jumps [View article]
The real problem is that people don't understand what money is and - more importantly - where it comes from (who controls its quantity). People therefore project the common (and sound) experience that working off debt/becoming free of debt is a good thing onto business, government etc. BUT, when all money represents debt, paying off debt would be a deflationary disaster (there would *be* no money at all).
I personally know several otherwise smart people who have college degrees in national economics and who don't know/understand this. And worse - they cannot imagine a different system (e.g. one where a dollar would represent *value* instead of debt). I think the reason that monetary theory is not even taught in college is largely because the debt-money system has been great during the massive global growth period that was the last 400 years, but now - with real constraints on growth given by availability of natural resources the game has changed.
In a post-growth world, the debt money system is bankrupt by design. It is *totally* irrelevant if you are left or right on the political spectrum.
We are absolutely without a permanent monetary system. This should be the only priority for world leaders.
Of course, the system is not going to be changed - exept perhaps in isolated places like Iceland where the average man has been so obviously and brutally raped by the banksters and their puppets (politicians) that he has figured out the "something" must be changed with the system - he just does not know what, since he does not understand the difference between *value* money and debt-money.
The good news is that if you understand the system predicting the (macro)-future becomes almost trivial and you can make tons of money by joining the gang-rape of the average citizen who has no clue despite perhaps being intelligent and well educated. People like us, like our government, suck *value* (not money) out of other peoples retirement savings, etc. Like stealing candy from a baby - except this baby doesn't even know it's being taken to the cleaners - it's too busy discussing politics liberal/conservative/the next president... WHO CARES??
The *only* relevant question people should ask is:
"Who controls the money supply?"
If they did that, the World would be a much better place...
-
enough said
Revisiting Kandi: Why I Remain Confident in This Stock [View article]
My rhetorical question was directed at etwon44.
Thanks largely to your initial 4 articles, I have a significant position in KNDI, to which I might even add more when sanity returns to the market for Chinese small caps.
Other stocks I either own or consider are in the fields of wind energy e.g.
APWR, MY, 2208
photovoltaics e.g.
STP, CSUN, JASO, TSL, DQ
batteries and storage e.g.
ABAT, CSGH
As you can see from the choice of sectors - I think non-fossil energy will grow as far as the eye can see - especially in China!
KNDI seems a unique play in the EV-market in China. That's why I am grateful for your pitch in those four articles - despite the current loss in the position.
Revisiting Kandi: Why I Remain Confident in This Stock [View article]
I own (and continue to accumulate) several Chinese positions where the companies have (one or more of):
- a 2010 PE of less than 7 - some less than 3.5
- a price/book far below 1
- a price to sales at approx 0.5
- typical CAGR of 35-100% (for 3+ years)
If you calculate PEGs, it is almost criminal.
KNDI may or may not be a "Microsoft" in the early 80's-type investment
but if you diversify to other china-cleantech companies you will get a handsome return, no matter what.
PE ratios below 5 galore. What's not to like
Overtaken by Events [View article]
Anyone interested in the history of the FED should watch "The Money Masters" - well worth the 3.5 hours it takes.
video.google.com/video...
For understanding why the monetary system is bankrupt by design (!!) watch "Money as Debt" and/or "Money as Debt II - Promises unleashed"
video.google.com/video...
youtube.com/watch?v=_d...
---
Once you understand that the FED is a private for-profit company (not part of government), every single action of the FED in recent years makes perfect sense. Anyone complaining about how stupid the FED is acting has simply not understood what the FED is and whom it serves.
Anyone who thinks the problem is "fiat" money and that gold is the only solution should check out the "The secret of Oz":
youtube.com/watch?v=7q...
---
The winners will be those who understand the game they play.