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minorman

minorman
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  • Can Triumph Over Peak Oil Continue In A Post-Monetary Stimulus World? [View article]
    Clearly the coupling of easy credit and the thight-oil growth in US is very close.

    I find it absolutely amazing how easilly people are fooled into thinking that peak-oil is non-issue when the only really hard indicator - the price of crude - has gone up 400% in ten years!

    Full stop.

    And these people even have the nerve to call the few people who (correctly) warned about peak oil wrong becuase the peak-oilers didn't take a 5x increase in crude price into consideration.

    For perspective on who's typically wrong and right in this fight I encourage everyone to download and read EIAs International Energy Outlook from 2001.
    ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/...
    The fun starts at page 25.
    They were predicting a global output 97 mbdp in 2010 and 109 mbdp in 2015 and a crazy 122 mbpd in 2020.
    In the 2010 edition the 2020 output has been down-revised to 92 mbpd.
    That is a down-revision of 30 mbpd or 3 Saudi Arabias (or 20+ North Dakotas) in just nine years.
    Oh yeah - and in 2001 the EIA also predicted a crude price of $20/bbl until 2020 in their reference case - and up tp $28/bbl in their "high oil price" scenario. And that was without a "great recession"!

    Compared with the EIA "reference case", even the most pessimistic peak-oil predictions from 2001 look downright accurate.

    If you want to know what other people (who's results aren't politically motivated) say this is a good starting point:
    http://bit.ly/14dySmE


    Reports of the "death of peak oil" have been greatly exagerated - and we know who stands to gain from media (dis)information.
    Jul 29 09:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Market Manipulation Reaches Absurd Levels [View article]
    Thank you for a well-informed comment (very rare on SA).

    In the not-so-long run, the *supply* fundamentals for crude are highly bullish - but the *demand* fundamentals are now important. (How many US citizens are now on food stamps again?)

    The 100 $/bbl seems to be where demand destruction (lower-middle class destruction, really) sets in. We'll hover around 100 $/bbl until new demand from Asia has sucked the lower middle class in OEDC dry - this could take a few more years.
    Then we'll move to the next price level. I'm guessing the 170-250 $/bbl range (defined by where demand destruction occurs in the middle class) and so on - all the way down the nasty side of peak oil.
    Market manipulation is noise on top of the big picure here. Bernanke et al. *can't print cheap oil*. This is why the recession (oil crisis) in Europe goes on and on and on. Chronic condition.
    May 22 10:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Palladium Supply Deficit Likely To Continue Until 2017 [View article]
    That's 1.5 M cars/*month* in China (18 M/year).

    Also, Johnson Matthey now acknowledges that the soviet state stockpile is now essentially depleted: http://bit.ly/10VjxOL
    As I told SA readers about two years ago:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 14 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Things You Don't Know About Bitcoin But Should [View article]
    It is not that bad. From the merchant's point of view, he can just price everything in USD and then bitpay checkout automatically generates a quote in the bitcoin for the equivalent (valid for 15 minutes) amount.

    During those 15 minutes the BTC/USD ratio could of course change, but the associated loss (or gain!) is carried by bitpay so the merchant gets the exact USD amount.
    Given the non-existent risk of charge back fraud and bitpay's highly competitive fee (1% in the US) it is no-brainer for web stores to accept bitcoin, really.

    And it works! - I just purchased a $700 USD smartphone on Sunday and paid in bitcoin. No problem. Credit cards are for people stuck in the last century...
    May 14 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Things You Don't Know About Bitcoin But Should [View article]
    They have top reputation in the bitcoin community.
    May 13 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Deficit Rises Again, Prices Could Spike Violently Higher Later This Year [View article]
    I've been long henry hub futures since march 2012. I'm firmly in the green despite horrific contango at the time and my target (based on fundamentals) is $6 with another $2-4 panic premium when the dumb money finally figure out the the so called shale "revolution" is the biggest hype-bubble since the IT/"new economy" bubbleof the 90'ies.
    Apr 27 08:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Why Bitcoin Is Going To Stay Around And How To Trade It [View article]
    Small nitpick. Bitcoin is not 2 years old. The blockchain started in January 2009.

    Otherwise good stuff. Bitcoin is (finally) starting to gain traction on SeekingAlpha. I *really* hope the editors are doing some soul-searching now (with all the articles they turned down in 2010-2012).

    Better late than never - SeekingA.. -Seeking-not-quite-Alpha
    Apr 19 04:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Krugman Missed Bitcoin's Value [View article]
    Thank you!
    This is exactly the point. What would be the fun of yet another print-as-much-as-you-want / "monetary policy" currency.

    Krugman is dead wrong about this:
    http://bit.ly/17uGpZQ
    Apr 19 04:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More On Bitcoin [View article]
    Ahh Krugman again.
    I explained in detail why his argument is wrong the first time he presented it (in 2011) here on SA:
    http://seekingalpha.co...


    But really, according to the "logic":
    If bitcoin goes up - its a failure (because deflation, bla bla.)
    If bitcoin goes down - its a failure, obviously.

    You can't "win" against Keynesians - only outperform their portfolio. -Big time!
    Apr 10 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Things You Don't Know About Bitcoin But Should [View article]
    No problem. Check out the service that bitpay.com (and others) provide.
    As a merchant, you can accept bitcoin (with all its advantages over paypal and credit cards) via bitpay - and have precisely zero exchange-rate risk.
    Apr 9 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Market Not A Bubble And Still Highly Undervalued [View article]
    Yeah, the SA editors are have strange criteria. Back in 2011 when I first wrote about bitcoin on SA my articles were downgraded to "instablogs" for various BS reasons - but now *after* everyone suddenly is a bitcoin expert, there are SA articles about it left, right and center.
    Oh well.
    Keep up the good work, Trace!
    Apr 9 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Market Not A Bubble And Still Highly Undervalued [View article]
    In fact some do and have done so since 2011.
    Apr 9 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Bitcoin The World's Most Perfect Speculative Material? [View article]
    See this
    http://bit.ly/Y3oIwn
    Then read this
    http://bit.ly/14KzsXo
    Apr 5 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin: Such a good idea that it will probably fail [View instapost]
    If bitcoin is not stopped - I think it will evolve to be the most game-changing invention in decades (several decades), but I still think it will come under serious fire which is why only a small fraction of my net worth is in bitcoin.

    An attacker with *very* deep pockets can mount an attack on the "mining" infrastructure buy pouring +$100 million into custom designed ASICs and use this ("+51%" hashing power) to halt legitimate transactions from entering the blockchain effectively freezing bitcoins in the everyone's wallets and cause a panic and bad press.
    At the same time the government could make some high-profile arrests of famous bitcoin people for various charges (and release them after bitcoin crashes, of course) while spreading FUD in the media that bitcoin is only for terrorists and child pornographers and so on...

    Bitcoin is not (yet) immune (which is probably why 1 BTC is $100 and not $100 k)- but once we hit 100 million users the game is over for the bankers.
    Mar 28 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyprus Capital Controls: What To Look For [View article]
    One thing to look for in the context of Cyprus?

    Bitcoin!!
    (Up ca. 50% since the Cyprus fiasco started.)
    Mar 28 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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