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  • Overtaken by Events [View article]
    Spot on.
    Anyone interested in the history of the FED should watch "The Money Masters" - well worth the 3.5 hours it takes.

    For understanding why the monetary system is bankrupt by design (!!) watch "Money as Debt" and/or "Money as Debt II - Promises unleashed"

    Once you understand that the FED is a private for-profit company (not part of government), every single action of the FED in recent years makes perfect sense. Anyone complaining about how stupid the FED is acting has simply not understood what the FED is and whom it serves.

    Anyone who thinks the problem is "fiat" money and that gold is the only solution should check out the "The secret of Oz":

    The winners will be those who understand the game they play.
    Feb 13 11:30 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • US default could be doomsday option for economy [View article]
    I don't know who wrote this piece, so I can't judge whether mistakes are deliberate or just due to ignorance.

    Case in point - first sentence:
    "WASHINGTON -- The United States has never defaulted on its debt and Democrats and Republicans say they don't want it to happen now."


    When Nixon overnight refused to give honor the obligation of the US Govt. to redeem Dollar-holders their promised gold (at the Bretton-Woods ratio of $35/tr. oz Au) - after the US for decades had claimed that their *Federal Reserve Notes* (see below) were redeemable at that price - that was a flat out default. Period.

    You promise something, but don't deliver on your promise = default.
    That was the "Nixon Shock" - the *next* US govt. default will be the "Obama/next president -shock".

    One other thing - please do not call the present day dollars "greenbacks". They are rightfully called "Federal Reserve Notes" - and represent debt (interest bearing).

    Google it.

    The "Greenback" was something entirely different. Debt free money. Also known as "United States Notes", introduced by Lincoln during the civil war...

    I wish people like the author knew just a tiny bit of history and understood the profound difference between debt-free greenbacks (representing wealth) and the current federal reserve notes (representing debt).
    - Both are "fiat" - but one is far superior to the other...
    Apr 23 10:56 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can They Spare A Penny A Click For International Coverage? [View instapost]
    I fully agree that SA has way too narrow focus on the US equities markets. The world is big - and I'd argue that many of the best and most interesting investments are to be found elsewhere.

    The SA editors also have a clear tendency to dismiss submitted articles ("We think this would make a very good instablog...") if the main theme is not about US stocks.

    Keep up the good work, Jon.
    (If you want your readers to be able to "tip" you for good content just add a bitcoin address. I'd tip good articles.)
    Nov 23 05:06 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: $25 in Sight [View article]
    I measure (the value of) my silver in Kilograms. Not arbitrary debt-money units like EUR or USD.

    There is NOTHING the price of silver can do to perturb my wealth. It can go to $1 /tr oz or $1000/ tr oz. It does not change the amount of kilograms I hold.

    When TSHTF - kilograms - (not SLV or futures) is what you want.
    Perhaps your view on silver is different. Perhaps you prefer something else. But make sure that you (personally) are in physical possession of something that hurts if you drop it on your foot. Real wealth does.
    May 17 10:26 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: The Latest Bubble Stock? [View article]
    Well I'm long. Have been for many years - and I'm very happy for it.

    At this juncture I wanted to re-read some of the (many) hit-pieces published here on SA in 2011 which thankfully made me *increase* my KNDI position at the time.
    Funny enough - I couldn't find any of them. They have all been deleted after utterly failing....
    Mar 18 11:09 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • US default could be doomsday option for economy [View article]
    No amount of tweaking can save the present system (not just the US) in a post-growth world.

    Without perpetual, exponential growth, a debt-money system is bankrupt by design. Compound interest makes this a mathematical fact.
    This is why all states which have adopted debt-money (nearly all states of the World) will eventually go bankrupt.

    The fractional reserve system, was (maybe) a reasonable, but somewhat perverse, idea when it was finally legalized with the Bank of England. But today, the prospect of global growth is not what it was in 1694. Far from it. The system is an anachronism.
    Apr 23 11:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Musings From The EV Black Knight [View instapost]

    I've just written an article about availability of chemical elements - where I review the entire periodic table. I think you might find it interesting (Jack Lifton might too).
    Executive summary : Terawatt scale energy conversion is a *hard* problem to tackle, and there really are only 25-35 elements available in any reasonable amounts.

    I think the paper is free access, but if you can't get the download to work, let me know and I'll send the pdf to your personal email.
    Jul 14 04:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal Is Dead; Long Live Natural Gas [View article]
    This post is ironic, right??

    I think your first paragraph *ought* to read:

    "Major GAS manufacturers in the United States, including (insert ANY shale gas driller here), made the same mistake the predecessors of today's oil giants, such as BP p.l.c. (BP) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), made in the 1980s. They built up too much capacity when commodity price was high, raising their own fixed cost structure and increasing their debt burdens along the way."

    Seriously. Can't you see that the very thing you are blaming the coal industry for doing is *exactly* what is about to destroy the nat. gas industry in the US - because they have done it to a *far, far* higher extent than the coal industry (perhaps) has??

    Surely, this article is meant as a joke :-)
    Jul 14 09:52 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Producers Could Still Have Long Way To Fall [View article]
    Overall, I like the analysis, and best of luck with your short.
    Presently I have no position in copper, but when I enter one it will be long!

    There are two reasons why copper should be way above the long term average price:
    1) Average copper ore grades are dropping off a cliff and have been almost cut in half since the early 90's.
    (scroll to exhibit 8)
    2) Resource extraction costs energy - mostly oil. And in the last ten years oil has gone up by something like 400%.

    It is an empirical fact that the per capita copper usage in developed countries is on the order of 200 kg (plus minus 50 kg) - see "Metal stocks and availability" by R. B. Gordon et al., PNAS, 103 (5), (2006), p. 1209-1214, link:
    China is very, very far from that level yet. Corrections and even market crashes probably will happen, but long term you can't go wrong with real assets like copper.
    Dec 29 05:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals Fundamentals More Bullish Than Anytime During The Entire Bull Market [View article]
    Why all the concern about how silver is priced in terms of an arbitrary unit like USD. Who cares?

    Count your silver wealth in kilograms! Forget futures and "paper silver" which can be printed. The banksters can (naked) short sell (paper) silver arbitrarily low, but they can't affect my physical metal and gravity (kilograms) always wins - even against bankers.

    If you like the idea of a non-inflatable currency there is a far better option than gold.
    Dec 29 06:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Doesn't Understand Bitcoin Yet, But It Will [View article]

    Bitcoin is a *protocol* first and foremost. A protocol for decentralized register of ownership.
    (The fact that the protocol also has a unit of "currency" which confusingly is also called bitcoin is merely a $10 B and counting)-bonus.)

    If you think there is "nothing new" in Bitcoin. Google:
    "Colored coins"
    "Autonomous agents"
    "Smart property"
    "M-of-N transactions and contracts"
    Expect to spend a full day researching each of these topics.
    See you in five days for a discussion of similarities between Bitcoin (the protocol) and tulip bulbs.

    Nov 27 03:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Triumph Over Peak Oil Continue In A Post-Monetary Stimulus World? [View article]
    Clearly the coupling of easy credit and the thight-oil growth in US is very close.

    I find it absolutely amazing how easilly people are fooled into thinking that peak-oil is non-issue when the only really hard indicator - the price of crude - has gone up 400% in ten years!

    Full stop.

    And these people even have the nerve to call the few people who (correctly) warned about peak oil wrong becuase the peak-oilers didn't take a 5x increase in crude price into consideration.

    For perspective on who's typically wrong and right in this fight I encourage everyone to download and read EIAs International Energy Outlook from 2001.
    The fun starts at page 25.
    They were predicting a global output 97 mbdp in 2010 and 109 mbdp in 2015 and a crazy 122 mbpd in 2020.
    In the 2010 edition the 2020 output has been down-revised to 92 mbpd.
    That is a down-revision of 30 mbpd or 3 Saudi Arabias (or 20+ North Dakotas) in just nine years.
    Oh yeah - and in 2001 the EIA also predicted a crude price of $20/bbl until 2020 in their reference case - and up tp $28/bbl in their "high oil price" scenario. And that was without a "great recession"!

    Compared with the EIA "reference case", even the most pessimistic peak-oil predictions from 2001 look downright accurate.

    If you want to know what other people (who's results aren't politically motivated) say this is a good starting point:

    Reports of the "death of peak oil" have been greatly exagerated - and we know who stands to gain from media (dis)information.
    Jul 29 09:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Global Energy Security Rests On The Shoulders Of (Gulp) Iraq [View article]
    To claim that "peak oil is dead" when Brent remains at 110 for the second year running while Europe tanks and the US is struggles is a modern day equivalent of passengers saying

    "But the Titanic can't sink!"

    when the ship had tilted 10 degrees and the first people were already in the boats
    Dec 4 10:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Tail Of Natural Gas Production [View article]
    Which is why natgas prices *will* overshoot the $4-6 (depending on who you trust) break even price.
    I wouldn't be at all surprised to see nat gas hit the $9-11 range -perhaps as early as next year- before it settles back to a more reasonable price.

    I'm loving my Henry hub futures these days!
    Jun 28 09:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Mineral Concentrator, August 19, 2011 [View instapost]

    I agree with most of your statements (expect that the yttrium is held in China - their inventory as of August 19th (the link I provided) shows everything to be held in Busan, South Korea, like I wrote, but this is not very important).

    I agree that another 30x is not going to happen - in fact I would not be surprised to see La and Ce drop back into the 20-40 $/kg range once Lynas and Molycorp come on stream. I think that such a drop would impact the share prices when this happens. Long term, might be another story.

    Will dysprosium and terbium appreciate even more?
    Perhaps not: Dysprosium might suffer demand destruction and the global terbium market *might* come into balance around 2015-16 as per the DOE critical metals report and, in particular, the latest (CRE) report from Gareth Hatch, which you have no doubt read.

    But at the same time I ask myself: - within the REE space, what has very low risk of dropping significantly in price?
    I can't name any REE miner (including GWG, which I hold), but the market price for dysprosium and terbium seem pretty darn solid to me - short term panics aside.

    Will Dacha management get greedy and overpay themselves? Maybe, but if they do people will just dump the stock.

    Right now Dacha (which is basically just a share (literally) of a big pile of Dy and Tb) is trading at less than half it's book value. Like being able to go out and buy dysprosium outside China today for 1200 $/kg. Not as cheap as it used to be, but still a bargin IMhO.
    Aug 22 01:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment