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  • Waiting for a rally in small caps as a sign the broader market is ready to break out to new highs? You've gotten it - the Russell 2000 (IWM) is  up 6.6% since August 1 vs. SPY +2.2%. Small caps are often viewed as needing to outperform during uptrends to confirm investor appetite to take on risk. [View news story]
    It makes sense, but the event risks in the immediate future are monumental. I'm also keeping in mind that the bear comes around about every 36 - 48 months. June marks 36 months since the last recession...
    Sep 5 12:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The TIPS Yield Curve: Bad News for Bonds [View article]
    I don't disagree with the expressed opinion. Let me add another way of looking at it. A mix of 5 and 10 year TIPS are an insurance policy against inflation. If the economy doesn't ramp up, unemployment stays high, and/or we actually pay down the deficit, then you have a 2% yield at maturity (and a waste of investment capital). If inflation ramps up, you have a debt instrument that will keep you even with it. The above is from a 62 year old guy. If I were 20-30, I might view it differently.
    Mar 12 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • These Fibs Don't Lie. The Market Is Still a Bear [View article]
    This is an interesting way of viewing the market.
    Also, consider that current fiscal and monetary policy is essentially a group of 'transfer payments' that result in massive public debt that will have to be paid for in a very unpleasant way (interest rates, inflation, etc.). Thinking: enjoy the ride, stay nimble, and hold a lot of cash.
    Jan 11 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment