Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • The Dark Before The Dawn For Bears  [View article]
    Does the tune never change Michael? How much longer do we have to hear, "My thesis has been right and the market has been wrong"? So far, it is for longer than the ECRI was wrong in summer of 2011. At least you were right in September 2011 on the October melt up - so you can boast superiority to ECRI.
    Jul 14, 2015. 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Margin Debt: What Does History Say About New Highs And Stock Returns?  [View article]
    ant21b - you need to read a little more carefully. Peak stock markets and peak margin do happen together. However, peak margin debt is NOT an indicator as this article took great pains to show.

    After we look back and identify what the peak of this market run is, we are likely to find that margin debt was very high. However, peak margin debt by itself is usually a false positive.
    Jun 5, 2015. 06:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caesars bankruptcy gets more complicated  [View news story]
    Hello Anthony,

    The assets will be pulled back from a subsidiary of CZR into CEOC, the entity declaring bankruptcy. That will make them available for liquidation to satisfy creditors claims in that bankruptcy. The judge has ruled that CZR's transactions to remove assets from CEOC but leave the debt and remove the parent company's (CZR) guarantee for that debt was a violation of the law. Another word for what they have been trying to do is fraud.

    The stock will indeed pop tomorrow - but the pop is more like the meeting of a pin and a balloon.
    Jan 19, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caesars bankruptcy gets more complicated  [View news story]
    hello Anthony,
    The assets will be pulled back from one subsidiary into the one seeking bankruptcy protection, making those assets available to the creditors. In effect, the court is saying that CZR illegally separated assets from the subsidiary that owed the debt into another CZR subsidiary - and left the debt behind that now can't be covered. Another word for that is fraud.

    CZR will then, overall, have a LOWER asset base and may have to face bankruptcy itself in the not too distant future. The stock will pop tomorrow - but it will be like a balloon popping.
    Jan 19, 2015. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Funding Shortfall, Foundation Selling, And Flawed Structure Likely To Result In Downward Spiral At AFSI  [View article]
    I remember that little episode - the post has now been up for about 16 hours so it will be interesting to see if anything happens.
    Nov 29, 2014. 08:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Funding Shortfall, Foundation Selling, And Flawed Structure Likely To Result In Downward Spiral At AFSI  [View article]
    This is getting funny Gotham - your desperation is palpable.

    What is your relationship with SIRF and GeoInvesting? I don't mind folks shorting a stock and then writing hit pieces; I do have problems with folks who are dishonest while doing so and creating the appearance of objectivity in 3rd parties when they are, in fact, in relationship.
    Nov 28, 2014. 05:15 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Path Matters More Than The Destination  [View article]
    Nov 24, 2014. 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Lower Oil  [View article]
    <i>There are no shortgae of five year olds who have a better grasp of the facts than you do</I>

    There also appears to be no shortage of self proclaimed "market professionals" who are clueless on the relationship between correlation and cause. Lots of anger out there at this most hated bull market in history - mostly because many human beings would rather be right than make money.
    Nov 17, 2014. 07:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility, Corrections, And The Vicious V  [View article]
    Four references to "award winning" in this one Michael - that may be a record. The most I counted in previous articles was three - but every single one has a reference to your "award winning" papers. Those with solid credentials usually don't need to boast about them; those with one bright moment in the sun generally do.

    You are getting increasingly shrill as you conintue to blame the "irrational" market for your system's underperformance.
    Nov 3, 2014. 03:29 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3's Ominous End Looms For Stock Markets  [View article]
    Back at you Glenn - fun post.
    Sep 9, 2014. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3's Ominous End Looms For Stock Markets  [View article]
    This article exhibits some serious correlation=cause myopia, set within a partisan, ideological framework. Very silly.
    Sep 6, 2014. 09:14 AM | 36 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StoneMor Partners: My Reason For Selling This 10% Payout MLP  [View article]
    Brian - this is weaker than usual. Until you accept the challenge of understanding the merchandise trust and its impact on even the Non-GAAP numbers, you are just chanting an old and tired mantra that hasn't gotten any traction for nearly five years now.
    Sep 4, 2014. 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High-Yielding StoneMor's Value Masked By GAAP Reporting Complexities  [View article]
    Sorry Marty - what you have written on the first "for example" is nonsense and is directly contradicted in the filings. The second great "insight" regarding the distribution versus the FFO is the same old tired half baked argument that shows up rather frequently on SA and was effectively addressed in the article if you care to read it carefully.
    Aug 14, 2014. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StoneMor Partners: My Reason For Selling This 10% Payout MLP  [View article]
    mdelmatt - point well taken. However, I was focused on the analysis rather than the credentials of the author. It was a superb analysis and consistent with all of the facts that I am aware of from examining several years of filings and consulting folks I know who know what they are doing in the MLP accounting world. If the analysis is spot on, it really doesn't matter to me if this is a high school kid publishing his first article or Warren Buffett.
    Aug 13, 2014. 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Shouldn't Be So Quick To Dismiss Buffalo Wild Wings  [View article]
    BWLD did not fall short of any estimates. What is likely behind the sell off is the projection for growth for the year given in the conference call of "only" 25-30%. About three quarters of that growth already occurred in the first half of the year, so traders interpreted that as projecting that growth is going to be significantly reduced in the second half of the year.

    The real question is whether BWLD management is sandbagging or whether there are good reasons for the very cautious guidance that was given. Folks looking for some depth on this issue would be better off investing some time with the following article rather than the one above:
    Aug 7, 2014. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment