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  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Interesting spec, Maya. Thanks. Trades on NYSE as REED.
    Apr 9, 2015. 04:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]

    New $3 mil. grant to develop Proterra plant in Cali.

    Foothill Transit orders 13 more Proterra buses for delivery in 2016.
    Apr 9, 2015. 03:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    HUGE petroleum inventory build last week. Total stocks 13.9 mmb with crude oil accounting for 10.9 mmb of the increase.
    Apr 8, 2015. 11:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Schlumberger CEO: 'Oil Price Decline Not Due To Overcapacity' [View article]
    IIMU that most of the shale oil produced in US has API several points above WTI. If so, distillate yield from those crudes is lower than with WTI, Brent, etc. A recent SA article discussed the issue.
    Apr 7, 2015. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's $150 Windows Compute Stick arrives; new reporting detailed [View news story]
    "Newegg has begun taking pre-orders for a $150 Windows 8.1 model, and a $110 Linux model; shipments begin on April 24."

    Compute Sticks are apparently not limited to Windows 8.1
    Apr 7, 2015. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's $150 Windows Compute Stick arrives; new reporting detailed [View news story]
    @Jeff. cmcsess and thesahibzada mentioned business applications for the Compute Stick while you appear focused on consumer use.

    High end smartphones also come with high monthly subscription rates for the mobile services. Look for such subscription volumes to fade as US population ages and retires. As a retiree, my mobile phone use is limited (still have a land line) to locating/coordinating family members on outings, communication tool while traveling, and possible emergency use. My mobile phone bill has run less than $100 annually for several years. Purchase of a $110 linux stick is far more likely than purchase of a smartphone" of any stripe.

    ISTM, markets for Compute Sticks are a fair bit more viable than you anticipate.
    Apr 7, 2015. 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    "protecting the health and safety of employees" can be taken in multiple ways. If it is meant to address work environment and conditions one can readily concur. Mandate(s) to provide medical insurance is another matter that falls within the realm of "excessive rules and regulations."
    Apr 6, 2015. 04:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]

    Atlanta FED GDPnow model
    Apr 3, 2015. 02:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    What I do not see in any of the commentary read thus far on "mining sector" employment is recognition that "mining sector" extends to virtually everything in geographic regions largely dependent on oil/gas production for income. Retail and service sector jobs serving oil/gas related workers are also affected.

    Expect to visit Permian Basin some time this Spring/early Summer and will not be surprised to see some vacant retail stores, restaurants, motor hotels, etc.
    Apr 3, 2015. 12:27 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]

    "North Dakota oil producers complying with new treatment rules"

    New regulatory constraints on flaring associated NG were effective with first of year. Five oil producers have been ordered to reduce April oil output somewhat due to exceeding regulatory flaring limit in March.

    Regulatory mandate for field processing to strip LPGs out of associated gas now effective. Effect of regulations almost certainly has been to slightly reduce crude oil output volumes by disassociating/stripping out ethane, butane, propane, etc. ( for separate transport and marketing. Since all companies operating in N.Dakota are reportedly compliant, markets have likely adjusted to seeing these LPG supplies.
    Apr 3, 2015. 12:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Fascinating, Mark. Thanks.
    Apr 2, 2015. 03:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    >negotiators have 'found' solutions for nuclear deal <

    Surprise! Surprise! Enough 'solutions' found to continue negotiations.
    Apr 2, 2015. 01:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    It should indeed, Mark. Just realized that myself in drafting Scratching my head trying to figure out how I came up with the 1,764,000 bls figure.
    Apr 2, 2015. 12:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Obsessing Over Inventories And Rig Count... Focus On The Cash Flow [View article]
    "US oil production will continue growing as long as cash flows are positive because companies need to service their debt burden."

    NR ... One can reasonably presume that oil producers will maintain production from existing wells as long as cash flow is positive, i.e. - revenue exceeds variable cost of production. One can reasonably project expansion of production as long as producers can reasonably expect to recover their variable cost for doing so, but variable cost of expansion necessarily includes capital investment as well as expenses associated with operating wells once drilled and completed. That is, to grow production operators must finance capital investment in addition to covering their full cost of operations, including debt service obligations. If operating cash flow is inadequate to pay for capital investment in drilling and/or completing new wells such investment will not occur without infusion of additional capital via additional equity contributions or borrowing.

    Declining rig counts are an indicator of declining investment in new wells. Absent drilling of new wells, opportunity for expansion of oil output is limited to completions of an inventory of previously drilled but not completed wells and re-completion (workover) of wells already in production (both of which require capital investment in advance of output growth). There is reason to believe workover rig activity level has roughly tracked that of drilling rigs.

    EIA's latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report indicated domestic crude oil production declined 36,000 b/d, an acceleration from 3,000 b/d decline reported in the prior week. Crude oil inventories increased 4.8 million barrels in the week ending 3/27/15 while crude plus petroleum product inventories increased by a smaller 3.2 million barrels. Crude oil input to refineries increased by 154,000 b/d (1.078 million barrels) and products supplied to domestic markets rose 745,000 b/d.

    Crude oil exports from the U.S. are constrained as your article points out, but product exports are not. Part of the sharp increase in crude oil inventories in February and early March can be attributed to a refinery workers strike that idled multiple refineries. That strike is now resolved and one can expect domestic refinery output of petroleum products to displace imports of foreign refined products and/or an increase in petroleum product exports.

    On balance, I see probability of crude oil storage capacity constraints causing a decline in U.S. crude oil prices as well less than 50%. Crude oil production from existing wells is declining and the number of new wells completed is inadequate to sustain production at current levels. The rapid rate of decline in operating drilling rigs suggests acceleration in decline of new well completions could be more probable than not.
    Apr 2, 2015. 12:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    EIA's latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report was issued today. Crude oil stocks increased 4.8 mmb while crude + petroleum product inventories gained 3.2 mmb and refinery capacity utilization increased 0.7% from 87.9 to 88.6.

    Estimated crude oil production fell 36 mbd to 9,386 mbd from 9,422 mbd in the week earlier. 7 X 36 mbd = 1,764,000 bls.
    Apr 1, 2015. 09:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment