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  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    FWIW ...

    I could be wrong, but regarding rig counts and output growth Kloza's remarks strike me as mixing apples and oranges a bit.

    Talk of 500K U.S. wells producing less than 15 bd as background on rig count points directly toward workover rigs (capable of light duty drilling) used to re-complete existing wells. These rigs are used virtually exclusively to enhance existing well productivity by removal of blockages closing off casing perforations or to perforate well casings at new locations in the producing zone. Well productivity increases resulting from these operations might be a double or triple of pre-workover output (probably < 25 b/d). I strongly suspect many workover rigs have already been idled and their crews now counted among the unemployed. I also suspect that numerous sub<15 b/d wells have remained in production as a source of water for fracking operations or used for disposal of recovered frack water.

    It is my understanding Baker-Hughes rig counts reported weekly address heavy duty drilling equipment capable of drilling thousands of feet with much heavier drill pipe and equipped to contain high pressure blowout incidents (should they occur) where drilling penetrates into high pressure gas. Successful drilling results output orders of magnitude greater than workover operations. Increasing well productivity in producing basins most certainly occurs through refinement of techniques as knowledge of the producing zone increases. But, the greatest contributor to increased well productivity is probably termination of field delineation drilling and concentration on proven reservoir zones of higher productivity.

    Feb 11, 2015. 11:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    Maya, that looks like first hand knowledge of a major factor bearing on U.S. consumer demand -- higher indirect tax burden nominally labeled 'insurance premiums and co-payments' under the affordable care act.
    Feb 11, 2015. 09:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]

    "Samsung Display to invest $3.6 billion in new OLED production line"

    "A Samsung Display spokesman told Reuters on Wednesday the investment will take place from 2015 to 2017 for a new production line that will make medium and small-sized OLED displays for consumer electronics devices like smartphones. "

    "South Korea's Yonhap News Agency separately reported on Wednesday that LG Display Co Ltd plans to invest between 1 trillion won and 1.2 trillion won this year to add capacity in an existing large-panel OLED production line. LG Display declined to comment."

    OLED (Universal Display Corp) has in past been heavily dependent on Samsung Display for revenues. That dependency has eroded somewhat on conclusion of new commercial contracts with LG Electronics ( and Sumitomo Chemical (

    OLED 4Q'14 earnings report is scheduled for Feb. 26.
    Feb 10, 2015. 09:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Data Landslide Reveal Economic Weakness? [View article]
    "Yes there was no republican obstructionism during the last six years and now we will return to reality "

    Republican obstructionism = Democrat obstructionism
    Feb 10, 2015. 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]

    Halliburton -
    "The company said it plans to cut 6.5% to 8% of its global workforce — or 5,200 to 6,400 jobs — including the 1,000 layoffs it announced in December. It has a worldwide staff of about 80,000."

    A niece in San Angelo, TX reported Sat. that Halliburton had been laying off personnel operating in nearby areas.
    Feb 10, 2015. 06:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union (23) January 1, 2015. [View instapost]
    Thnx for the reference, DG. The link provided in the article to BIS data was informative.

    Most recent data presented in the table pertain to June 2014 when EURO derivatives ($26.5 T) amounted to 35.4% of the $74.8 T outstanding in all currencies combined. Roughly 74% of that $74.8T of derivatives had maturities of one year or less. Assuming maturity structure of derivatives is homogeneous across all currencies, something less than $20T of the June 30, 2014 in EURO derivatives were short-term in nature. Seven months have passed since the data point was taken. Many of the short-term derivatives outstanding at that time have expired and risk managers have undoubtedly taken actions to reduce (or increase) their EURO exposures in the intervening time. To me these factors reduce the $26.5T exposure number to dubious value.
    Feb 10, 2015. 06:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    "EIA" should be read as IEA (International Energy Agency, an 'independent' body Paris with the same sponsoring governments as OECD).
    Feb 10, 2015. 05:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    "Hottest news item in Russia right now is speculation as to when (not if) Obama will ship high tech arms to the Ukraine. Russian press treats this as a done deal, and is looking down stream to see what Putin will respond with."

    Low probability event until end of European Winter is comfortably close enough for current non-Russian NG supply plus inventory is enough to keep people for freezing and employed.
    Feb 10, 2015. 12:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union (23) January 1, 2015. [View instapost]
    Interesting article, trip. Thanks for the reference.

    To be workable, though, the order of proposed three steps to a solution for Greece needs reversal. "3. Engage in a transparent national dialog and reach a consensus about taxation and the role of the state in the Greek society and economy" strikes me as a necessary (rather than sufficient) condition.

    :-) Reaching a consensus about taxation and role of the state would help a bit in the U.S. as well.
    Feb 10, 2015. 12:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    Latest Baker-Hughes North America operating rig count shows current total of 1,837 rigs operating on North American land or inland water, down 100 from the prior week. Count operating in U.S. and Canada declined by 87 and 13 respectively.

    381 rigs were operating in Canada this week, down 240 (39%) from 621 in same week last year. Year/year comparison made here due to seasonal factors affecting Canadian drilling activity (frozen ground needed to move heavy equipment).

    1,456 Rigs were operating in U.S., 1,140 of which were targeting oil and 314 seeking natural gas. Targets for two further rigs were unidentified. Operating rigs targeting oil are down 29% from the peak activity level observed in the week of October 10, 2014.
    Feb 6, 2015. 07:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]

    "Weatherford will cut 8,000 workers in the first half of the year. When added to 6,000 firings from last year, the Geneva-based company’s total workforce will shrink 25 percent from the start of 2014, Chief Financial Officer Krishna Shivram said on the call.

    Weatherford’s announcement brings the number of job cuts among oilfield-services companies to 25,000, with more promised. The industry, which help explorers find and produce oil and natural gas, has been the first to feel the effects of the price collapse. Oil companies have slashed spending in the past quarter after crude plunged more than 50 percent since June as U.S. production surged and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries resisted output cuts. "
    Feb 5, 2015. 01:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    Thanks for the QC AND for sharing "Hope a'dawning".
    Feb 5, 2015. 01:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    Good to see you posting, trip.
    Feb 5, 2015. 12:25 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    FWIW, the PR strikes me as equivalent of to a farmer disclosing planting of seed grain. Without further info on soil preparation (fertilizer, ph balancing, etc.), soil moisture and temperature, weather outlook etc., probability of positive yield appears akin to that afforded Texas dry land farmers in Spring of their recent "hundred year drought" year. Will personally place no capital at risk in UQM without evidence the crop has germinated and is likely to get watered.
    Feb 5, 2015. 12:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chubb: Quantifying Lowball Guidance  [View instapost]
    Ditto what AJAdams said, Tom.
    Feb 3, 2015. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment