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raphael walker

raphael walker
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  • Analyzing Barrick Gold's Debt And Risk [View article]
    There are a couple of problems which might dent the analysis.

    First is, the way percents work is, you double your money, your return is 100%. You triple your money, your return is 200%. You quadruple your money, your return is 300%. Barrick's debt has tripled- i.e. increased about 200% over the past five years. Not 300%.

    Second is, it's not that hard to look up what Barrick's actual cost of debt is. Looks like it's about 5.5% overall. It's even lower if you choose to use the net of capitalized interest numbers. But 5.5% is a good bit lower than the 'average interest rate for a grade of debt a step lower than Barrick's current rating'. Yes, it's easier to pick a number out of a hat than to, say, go look up the third-quarter press release and scroll aaalllllll the way down to footnote 17B.

    But that laziness throws off the rest of the analysis.

    So, back to square one: if you double your money, it's not a 200% return. Start with that, and gradually work your way up to such complicated aspects of financial analysis as reading the footnotes.
    Jan 31, 2013. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spin-Offs: Great Value Even After Cat's Out Of The Bag [View article]
    Thoughts on Seacor and its upcoming helicopter spinoff? (Scheduled for month-end but both spin and stub already have when-issued trading symbols.)
    Jan 25, 2013. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keys To Rare Earth Companies' Success: Innovation, Cost Efficiency [View article]
    The guy who ran TRER down to zero has been appointed to do the same to GW. I used to think that having a big, expensive ex-Newmont team at TRER was money in the bank. Then I realized too late that people used to multi-billion-dollar budgets with enormous companies are not the guys you want in charge of shoestring-budget companies. GW's only hope is to get bought out by some pal of LeVier's. That or toast: no other outcome. So get your butter ready.
    Jan 24, 2013. 04:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leucadia: Searching For One Last Score? [View article]
    Really? Because there's a company with a similar name and stock ticker, only its chairman is named Cumming. Odd coincidence, eh?
    Nov 9, 2012. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leucadia: Searching For One Last Score? [View article]
    Who is this "Cummings" you refer to so often?
    Nov 7, 2012. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Lynas: Intriguing Hybrid Asset Class [View article]
    "Malaysian deposit." That's not a typo, that's a stock tout who is very confused about what he's supposed to be touting.
    Sep 4, 2012. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Buys 66th Local Newspaper [View article]
    Buffett has been 'moving public opinion in his direction' for decades now- long before he became a billionaire, or everyone's favorite dispenser of cornpone bromides. He bought the Washington Monthly a generation ago, even before he bought an influential stake in the Washington Post. He and Munger provided all the behind-the-scenes support for Roe v Wade, and his eponymous foundation continues to support contraception and abortion, sterilization and so on, with an especial focus on warping Catholics. He is currently funding the best-funded "'Catholics' for Abortion' groups to nag ignorant Catholics into thinking the HHS abrogation of the First Amendment is no big deal. And of course he's on television and in Fortune and all the New York prestige media all the time. Plus, there's a Buffett Tax that proposes to tax the nation into wealth for everyone. You may have heard of it. But the papers mentioned in the article are in Waco and College Station- two of the most reliably culturally conservative areas in pretty non-blue Texas. So- whether he is finally giving up a few marbles or not, he's been 'influencing opinion' for a very long time now.
    Jun 25, 2012. 04:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Could Fall Significantly This Year [View article]
    "you're" recommending your own article. can see why criticism of a writer's writing hurted your pwecious feewings, Wyan.
    Apr 10, 2012. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Could Fall Significantly This Year [View article]
    oakey dide me crikitiss opnyun no riter. opinion dumb, add nothing, based on counterfactuals. but hey writers who are wrong about everything, it can't have anything to do with the writer, can it? do let us have first place blue ribbons for all the fine little childrens, valedictorians one and all. (oh- and stop projecting. it's soo wuude, you know, like?)
    Apr 10, 2012. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Could Fall Significantly This Year [View article]
    Another tired piece by a can't-write writer. Hey, the B Sky B thing? It's quoted in pence, which, like, someone who knew what he was writing about would know. But even if you pretend that the stock was at eight hundred dollars US, the fall all the way to today's ~ 660 "dollars" would be a drop of considerably less than the plunge that NFLX experienced. I mean, lots less, or, depending on how illiterately one needs to type to get his point across to a not-two-brite guy, "lot's" less than half.

    If monkeys sitting at a typewriter would eventually randomly produce Shakespeare, it's clear that Vatty has a few millennia to go. I'd like to think that it's admirable that he keeps on trying, but life is short and there are people on SA who can think and write well.
    Apr 10, 2012. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodak Faces Crucial Survival Test [View article]
    I take it you are the author. I suppose there's no law against being inexperienced, as a very young person, and thus sounding extremely underinformed about, like, bankruptcy & stuff. It is young & inexperienced, for instance, to grasp at a single fact- that it's not at this stage a liquidating bankruptcy- as a reason for hope for some glorious return to the days of George Eastman paternalistically taking care of employees & shareholders. And- the sooner, kid, you drop the whole Indians-invented-that-... the sooner you'll sound less like you're an irredeemable doofus. Welcome to America. Welcome to adulthood. Read The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham. Then try writing about investing again.
    Mar 21, 2012. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodak Faces Crucial Survival Test [View article]
    The article sounds like it was written back in the fall, before Kodak did things like, well, I don't know if it's really relevant to the author's point of view, high school and so on, or the title of the piece, survival test and all that drama, but Kodak did sort of file for bankruptcy. I dunno, maybe relevant, maybe not. "Time will tell," as the author portentously notes. But it could be that bankruptcy outweighs selling Kodak Gallery as a "survival test," and that it's possible to hazard a reasonable guess at that without waiting for time to tell us.
    Mar 7, 2012. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Social Security [View article]
    I have to conclude that the author has a hammer labeled '1969', and that his answer to every problem in the world is to hit someone with his hammer. I.e. he's missing the '-savant' part of 'idiot-'.

    Too bad. I thought he might have been a rarity on SA- someone worth paying attention to.
    Feb 23, 2012. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Social Security [View article]
    'Social Security isn't what you think it is' is fine as a teaser piece. What would be useful would be less 'you guys who don't understand my point are dummies' and more 'here's what I think this means for long-term investing, interest rates and bond yields, dollar safety and purchasing power parity, and why you shouldn't go running around in a panic buying up Krugerrands', unless we should be running around in a panic buying up Krugerrands.

    The common objection, which you are not yet addressing, runs this way: 'Social security payments currently take up X% of federal revenue. Social security payments are projected in year 2XYZ to be $Xxxyyyzzzaaa, which is [more, or less?] than projected year 2XYZ federal revenue. Either our economy grows really really tall, or a future dollar bill will not even pay for a single sheet of Kimberly-Clark toilet tissue. Therefore: panic.'

    Please stop the 'I've got a secret' shrugging and answer the question, however poorly it's been phrased. Why is blase okay?
    Feb 22, 2012. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Brings Back DVDs... Sort Of [View article]
    "Begging the question" is a logical fallacy; it is not a short, fun, or cool way of saying 'which leads us to ask' or 'which begs for the question to be asked' or 'which practically begs us to ask the question'.
    Feb 22, 2012. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment