raphael walker's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/533800/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1142621/comments?source=feed#comment-14412421 14412421
First is, the way percents work is, you double your money, your return is 100%. You triple your money, your return is 200%. You quadruple your money, your return is 300%. Barrick's debt has tripled- i.e. increased about 200% over the past five years. Not 300%.

Second is, it's not that hard to look up what Barrick's actual cost of debt is. Looks like it's about 5.5% overall. It's even lower if you choose to use the net of capitalized interest numbers. But 5.5% is a good bit lower than the 'average interest rate for a grade of debt a step lower than Barrick's current rating'. Yes, it's easier to pick a number out of a hat than to, say, go look up the third-quarter press release and scroll aaalllllll the way down to footnote 17B.

But that laziness throws off the rest of the analysis.

So, back to square one: if you double your money, it's not a 200% return. Start with that, and gradually work your way up to such complicated aspects of financial analysis as reading the footnotes.]]> Thu, 31 Jan 2013 13:33:31 -0500
First is, the way percents work is, you double your money, your return is 100%. You triple your money, your return is 200%. You quadruple your money, your return is 300%. Barrick's debt has tripled- i.e. increased about 200% over the past five years. Not 300%.

Second is, it's not that hard to look up what Barrick's actual cost of debt is. Looks like it's about 5.5% overall. It's even lower if you choose to use the net of capitalized interest numbers. But 5.5% is a good bit lower than the 'average interest rate for a grade of debt a step lower than Barrick's current rating'. Yes, it's easier to pick a number out of a hat than to, say, go look up the third-quarter press release and scroll aaalllllll the way down to footnote 17B.

But that laziness throws off the rest of the analysis.

So, back to square one: if you double your money, it's not a 200% return. Start with that, and gradually work your way up to such complicated aspects of financial analysis as reading the footnotes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1126681/comments?source=feed#comment-14168971 14168971 Fri, 25 Jan 2013 16:29:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1130271/comments?source=feed#comment-14118771 14118771 Thu, 24 Jan 2013 16:56:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/985541/comments?source=feed#comment-11437761 11437761 Fri, 09 Nov 2012 17:35:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/985541/comments?source=feed#comment-11344871 11344871 Wed, 07 Nov 2012 17:26:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/844141/comments?source=feed#comment-9076061 9076061 Tue, 04 Sep 2012 11:45:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/830701/comments?source=feed#comment-9074241 9074241 Tue, 04 Sep 2012 11:04:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/830701/comments?source=feed#comment-8945761 8945761 Thu, 30 Aug 2012 12:48:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/830701/comments?source=feed#comment-8855421 8855421
Over the past couple of decades, I have seen only one analyst who was able to do a little better than 'gosh, earnings are so unpredictable here!' or 'load up on a mini-Berkshire!' Not that many have tried. Call it a dozen in national publications, and a handful of online message board posts masquerading as articles.

This piece is no different. It would be nice if enough people who somehow already owned Leucadia saw this article and decided to dump their shares. I could pick up some already-cheap stock for an even greater discount. But it is likelier that unintelligent, vapid, listless commentary will not have any effect on the stock price at all.

Now, if Seeking Alpha could get a couple dozen guys to write similar pieces, maybe the stock would fall a few pennies. Yeah. Then I'd swoop in. Oh yeah. Is this like those book reviews on Amazon, some guy who's never read the book just posts junk to get his Top Reviewer numbers up? You know, 'wow, another SA article under my belt, whooee!' Because it's just so uninteresting that I can barely press the 'publish' button.]]> Tue, 28 Aug 2012 11:35:52 -0400
Over the past couple of decades, I have seen only one analyst who was able to do a little better than 'gosh, earnings are so unpredictable here!' or 'load up on a mini-Berkshire!' Not that many have tried. Call it a dozen in national publications, and a handful of online message board posts masquerading as articles.

This piece is no different. It would be nice if enough people who somehow already owned Leucadia saw this article and decided to dump their shares. I could pick up some already-cheap stock for an even greater discount. But it is likelier that unintelligent, vapid, listless commentary will not have any effect on the stock price at all.

Now, if Seeking Alpha could get a couple dozen guys to write similar pieces, maybe the stock would fall a few pennies. Yeah. Then I'd swoop in. Oh yeah. Is this like those book reviews on Amazon, some guy who's never read the book just posts junk to get his Top Reviewer numbers up? You know, 'wow, another SA article under my belt, whooee!' Because it's just so uninteresting that I can barely press the 'publish' button.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/682291/comments?source=feed#comment-6780251 6780251 Mon, 25 Jun 2012 16:48:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/487791/comments?source=feed#comment-4290451 4290451 Tue, 10 Apr 2012 12:42:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/487791/comments?source=feed#comment-4290391 4290391 Tue, 10 Apr 2012 12:40:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/487791/comments?source=feed#comment-4285251 4285251
If monkeys sitting at a typewriter would eventually randomly produce Shakespeare, it's clear that Vatty has a few millennia to go. I'd like to think that it's admirable that he keeps on trying, but life is short and there are people on SA who can think and write well.]]> Tue, 10 Apr 2012 10:50:46 -0400
If monkeys sitting at a typewriter would eventually randomly produce Shakespeare, it's clear that Vatty has a few millennia to go. I'd like to think that it's admirable that he keeps on trying, but life is short and there are people on SA who can think and write well.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/415741/comments?source=feed#comment-3690441 3690441 Wed, 21 Mar 2012 14:37:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/415741/comments?source=feed#comment-3259001 3259001 Wed, 07 Mar 2012 13:28:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/381371/comments?source=feed#comment-2864941 2864941
Too bad. I thought he might have been a rarity on SA- someone worth paying attention to.]]> Thu, 23 Feb 2012 11:35:31 -0500
Too bad. I thought he might have been a rarity on SA- someone worth paying attention to.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/381371/comments?source=feed#comment-2834381 2834381
The common objection, which you are not yet addressing, runs this way: 'Social security payments currently take up X% of federal revenue. Social security payments are projected in year 2XYZ to be $Xxxyyyzzzaaa, which is [more, or less?] than projected year 2XYZ federal revenue. Either our economy grows really really tall, or a future dollar bill will not even pay for a single sheet of Kimberly-Clark toilet tissue. Therefore: panic.'

Please stop the 'I've got a secret' shrugging and answer the question, however poorly it's been phrased. Why is blase okay?]]> Wed, 22 Feb 2012 12:25:28 -0500
The common objection, which you are not yet addressing, runs this way: 'Social security payments currently take up X% of federal revenue. Social security payments are projected in year 2XYZ to be $Xxxyyyzzzaaa, which is [more, or less?] than projected year 2XYZ federal revenue. Either our economy grows really really tall, or a future dollar bill will not even pay for a single sheet of Kimberly-Clark toilet tissue. Therefore: panic.'

Please stop the 'I've got a secret' shrugging and answer the question, however poorly it's been phrased. Why is blase okay?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/378991/comments?source=feed#comment-2833681 2833681 Wed, 22 Feb 2012 12:06:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/376711/comments?source=feed#comment-2832921 2832921 Wed, 22 Feb 2012 11:47:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/376711/comments?source=feed#comment-2812401 2812401
Of Spirach I expect no more. But Rich Rockwood could do a much better job, if he felt like it, of offering a constructive critique.]]> Tue, 21 Feb 2012 17:21:24 -0500
Of Spirach I expect no more. But Rich Rockwood could do a much better job, if he felt like it, of offering a constructive critique.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/301523/comments?source=feed#comment-2811211 2811211 Tue, 21 Feb 2012 16:35:41 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/319147/comments?source=feed#comment-2171316 2171316 Fri, 13 Jan 2012 11:07:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/319147/comments?source=feed#comment-2168704 2168704 Thu, 12 Jan 2012 13:29:29 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/313280/comments?source=feed#comment-2103190 2103190

To paraphrase Buffett, if after fifteen minutes at the poker table you can't tell who the patsy is, then you're probably not the pirate.]]> Tue, 13 Dec 2011 16:59:20 -0500

To paraphrase Buffett, if after fifteen minutes at the poker table you can't tell who the patsy is, then you're probably not the pirate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/312912/comments?source=feed#comment-2094932 2094932 Fri, 09 Dec 2011 14:59:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/309348/comments?source=feed#comment-2059034 2059034
If/when Germany runs out of propping-up capacity, then does the euro start acting less like a Deutsche Mark and more like a drachma or lira or escudo? Do ordinary Europeans, faced with a sharp decline in purchasing power, buy more bunds, or do they take a train ride to Zurich to buy a little gold bar or two?

And the dollar, you say, is in even worse shape than the euro. Well gee that's gotta be terrible for gold demand, don't it?

(Since neither ordinary Europeans nor ordinary Americans will be able to afford $2000/oz//euro eq, you may be building a tacit bull case for silver...)]]> Wed, 23 Nov 2011 12:52:03 -0500
If/when Germany runs out of propping-up capacity, then does the euro start acting less like a Deutsche Mark and more like a drachma or lira or escudo? Do ordinary Europeans, faced with a sharp decline in purchasing power, buy more bunds, or do they take a train ride to Zurich to buy a little gold bar or two?

And the dollar, you say, is in even worse shape than the euro. Well gee that's gotta be terrible for gold demand, don't it?

(Since neither ordinary Europeans nor ordinary Americans will be able to afford $2000/oz//euro eq, you may be building a tacit bull case for silver...)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/294717/comments?source=feed#comment-1919887 1919887
Oh.]]> Tue, 20 Sep 2011 10:49:03 -0400
Oh.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/65370-jack-lifton/190242-down-under-down-under-a-visit-to-arafura-resources-nolan-s-bore-rare-earth-s-project-in-australia-s-northern-territories?source=feed#comment-1736581 1736581 www.reuters.com/articl... Lynas- down sharply. Arafura- up just a little bit. ]]> Thu, 30 Jun 2011 10:40:02 -0400 www.reuters.com/articl... Lynas- down sharply. Arafura- up just a little bit. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/65370-jack-lifton/190242-down-under-down-under-a-visit-to-arafura-resources-nolan-s-bore-rare-earth-s-project-in-australia-s-northern-territories?source=feed#comment-1733583 1733583
Add a billion to the current market cap, devalue Arafura relative to Molycorp and Lynas for the additional year's head start they have on ARA, and you get the current market cap. Subtract the time & nuisance value of Malaysian game-playing and sincere Californian nimbyism and ARA starts to look as cheap as the good Dr seems to suggest it may be.]]> Tue, 28 Jun 2011 21:23:52 -0400
Add a billion to the current market cap, devalue Arafura relative to Molycorp and Lynas for the additional year's head start they have on ARA, and you get the current market cap. Subtract the time & nuisance value of Malaysian game-playing and sincere Californian nimbyism and ARA starts to look as cheap as the good Dr seems to suggest it may be.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/269027/comments?source=feed#comment-1643318 1643318
Okay, so I owned Unocal over thirty years ago and used to read the Molycorp pages in the annual reports. So who's closer to the truth, you saying it's a "very young company" or me making fun of you?

As for the rest, I notice you fail to whine about how I make fun of you for pretending that that Chinese fraud is a rare-earth miner. I notice that you rely quite heavily on a narrow, prejudice-favoring take on the Goldman report, and that either you're too thin-skinned about criticism or too self-absorbed to realize it.

Where you would do a service rather than merely waste time and space is in separating wheat from chaff, rather than pretending that Molycorp and Shen Zhou are same-same.

But of course for that there are real analysts who actually know something about the rare earth elements and the various mines & managements. If there's a Jack Lifton, there hardly needs to be a "Rougemont".

Oh. My mistake again. There I go, pretending that a day trader knows anything about fundamental stock analysis. ]]> Wed, 11 May 2011 08:37:27 -0400
Okay, so I owned Unocal over thirty years ago and used to read the Molycorp pages in the annual reports. So who's closer to the truth, you saying it's a "very young company" or me making fun of you?

As for the rest, I notice you fail to whine about how I make fun of you for pretending that that Chinese fraud is a rare-earth miner. I notice that you rely quite heavily on a narrow, prejudice-favoring take on the Goldman report, and that either you're too thin-skinned about criticism or too self-absorbed to realize it.

Where you would do a service rather than merely waste time and space is in separating wheat from chaff, rather than pretending that Molycorp and Shen Zhou are same-same.

But of course for that there are real analysts who actually know something about the rare earth elements and the various mines & managements. If there's a Jack Lifton, there hardly needs to be a "Rougemont".

Oh. My mistake again. There I go, pretending that a day trader knows anything about fundamental stock analysis. ]]>