weiwentg's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/53436/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174214-tips-are-a-bargain-compared-to-treasuries?source=feed#comment-773313 773313 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:41:44 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172162-obamacare-affordable-private-insurance-is-already-available?source=feed#comment-752726 752726 This AHIP research piece is well done (unlike the one they asked PwC to do). However, it tells us nothing about how comprehensive the individual policies were. It also tells us nothing about how many people were denied policies due to health status.
As many as 25 million people are underinsured, according to the Commonwealth Fund. They define underinsured as spending over 10% of family income in premiums or out of pocket payments (or 5% if they were poor), or as having a deductible equal to 5% or more of family income. A lot of the individual insurance policies being sold today will leave you underinsured. A lot of them will vary in what conditions they cover; for example, a study by the Center for American Progress found that even among Bronze tier plans in the Massachusetts insurance exchange, policies differed a lot in how much of expected expenses they covered for breast cancer or diabetes. Consumers should not have to have that type of surprise.
I'm not certain how you're defining 'Obamacare'. I have to wonder if you're using it as a scare word. In any case, we definitely need the health insurance market reforms, including giving up health status rating, guaranteed issue, a mandate and subsidies in order to get people insured. I think we could get the system reformed without a public plan, although I would prefer one.]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:23:46 -0500 This AHIP research piece is well done (unlike the one they asked PwC to do). However, it tells us nothing about how comprehensive the individual policies were. It also tells us nothing about how many people were denied policies due to health status.
As many as 25 million people are underinsured, according to the Commonwealth Fund. They define underinsured as spending over 10% of family income in premiums or out of pocket payments (or 5% if they were poor), or as having a deductible equal to 5% or more of family income. A lot of the individual insurance policies being sold today will leave you underinsured. A lot of them will vary in what conditions they cover; for example, a study by the Center for American Progress found that even among Bronze tier plans in the Massachusetts insurance exchange, policies differed a lot in how much of expected expenses they covered for breast cancer or diabetes. Consumers should not have to have that type of surprise.
I'm not certain how you're defining 'Obamacare'. I have to wonder if you're using it as a scare word. In any case, we definitely need the health insurance market reforms, including giving up health status rating, guaranteed issue, a mandate and subsidies in order to get people insured. I think we could get the system reformed without a public plan, although I would prefer one.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168495-betting-on-natural-gas-part-ii-investing-ideas?source=feed#comment-728253 728253 EPE).]]> Sat, 24 Oct 2009 10:32:47 -0400 EPE).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151685-kinder-morgan-s-dividend-payout-rate-is-unsustainable?source=feed#comment-609664 609664
This by itself isn't a problem. However, the general partner (which used to be publicly traded under the ticker KMI but was bought out by private equity) is currently entitled to 50% of the incremental cash flows distributed by the limited partner. This is known as being in the high splits; there are several lower tiers to incentivize the GP (which manages the pipeline) to raise distributions as fast as possible. However, when the LP issues units, the LP has to raise its distributions, and again, the GP gets 50% of the incremental distributions.

I think KMP's assets are very stable and long-lived, and that they'll be able to maintain their distribution. However, I expect distribution growth to tail off. They won't be able to sustain their past growth rates.]]> Fri, 31 Jul 2009 10:58:49 -0400
This by itself isn't a problem. However, the general partner (which used to be publicly traded under the ticker KMI but was bought out by private equity) is currently entitled to 50% of the incremental cash flows distributed by the limited partner. This is known as being in the high splits; there are several lower tiers to incentivize the GP (which manages the pipeline) to raise distributions as fast as possible. However, when the LP issues units, the LP has to raise its distributions, and again, the GP gets 50% of the incremental distributions.

I think KMP's assets are very stable and long-lived, and that they'll be able to maintain their distribution. However, I expect distribution growth to tail off. They won't be able to sustain their past growth rates.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150817-berkshire-decreases-moody-s-stake-smart-investing-or-payback?source=feed#comment-599504 599504 Thu, 23 Jul 2009 11:36:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/150331-procter-gamble-a-valuation-opportunity?source=feed#comment-598040 598040
It's also not a very volatile stock. I'm not experienced with shorting, so I question whether you would make more than your cost to short the shares.

Lastly, P&G does not exhibit the symptoms of too big too succeed. The business lines share common themes. The company is managing its brands well and isn't overreaching. Of course P&G is too big to be the next hot growth stock - but that's no reason to short the shares.]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 11:36:00 -0400
It's also not a very volatile stock. I'm not experienced with shorting, so I question whether you would make more than your cost to short the shares.

Lastly, P&G does not exhibit the symptoms of too big too succeed. The business lines share common themes. The company is managing its brands well and isn't overreaching. Of course P&G is too big to be the next hot growth stock - but that's no reason to short the shares.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145972-realty-income-excellent-dividend-growth-reit?source=feed#comment-568837 568837

On Jun 30 10:57 AM Lightway wrote:

> The NNN chart looks similar to O's:
>
> www.buyupside.com/divi...;interval=tenyears&...]]> Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:54:59 -0400

On Jun 30 10:57 AM Lightway wrote:

> The NNN chart looks similar to O's:
>
> www.buyupside.com/divi...;interval=tenyears&...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142406-nine-value-companies-to-watch?source=feed#comment-567516 567516 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 17:20:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129280-sysco-more-attractive-than-cisco?source=feed#comment-545973 545973 Sun, 14 Jun 2009 09:36:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/142086-microsoft-squandering-cash-on-a-meaningless-product?source=feed#comment-539260 539260 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 15:10:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138575-buffett-still-misunderstood-after-all-these-years?source=feed#comment-511284 511284 Wed, 20 May 2009 10:56:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137924-healthcare-reform-industry-backpedals-fast?source=feed#comment-505856 505856
I should note that CMS estimates a 6.8% annual growth rate going forward, so this means a 5.3% growth rate. That's still faster than GDP, which still means that we'll be increasingly unable to afford health care.]]> Fri, 15 May 2009 16:48:02 -0400
I should note that CMS estimates a 6.8% annual growth rate going forward, so this means a 5.3% growth rate. That's still faster than GDP, which still means that we'll be increasingly unable to afford health care.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131251-mlps-in-q2-as-strong-as-q1?source=feed#comment-466628 466628
However, I think the stronger MLPs, like EPD, ETE, TPP and KMP are good investments. They're all but certain to make it through the credit crisis and pay sustainable distributions. I think the market is waking up to MLPs.]]> Fri, 17 Apr 2009 11:34:47 -0400
However, I think the stronger MLPs, like EPD, ETE, TPP and KMP are good investments. They're all but certain to make it through the credit crisis and pay sustainable distributions. I think the market is waking up to MLPs.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126622-master-limited-partnerships-an-island-of-stability-for-dividend-investors?source=feed#comment-463285 463285 EPE). They hold GP stakes in EPD, ETE and TPP.


On Apr 07 03:28 PM thinking ahead wrote:

> A tip for fellow MLP holders: once cashflows reach certain thresholds,
> amounts diverted to the GP increase. These are called incentive distribution
> rights (IRD's), and they usually top out at tier 3 - 50%, after 15%
> and 25% steps. Most of the more established MLP's have already reached
> the top 50% IDR level (e.g. KMP, ETP, OKS). EPD is an example of
> a MLP that has a lower IDR threshold - 25% maximum.
>
> Once MLP's reach tier 3, the distribution growth typically slows
> - not stops, just slows - because more of the growth is being sent
> to the GP. It's all a way to incentivize the GP to do a good job
> for the MLP unit holders.
>
> One way to take advantage of this is to buy the GP's. But there are
> far fewer available, because these are the most profitable parts
> of the partnership structure and the smart guys like Kinder and Dan
> Duncan and Lowes like to keep the GP slot for themselves. But there
> are some available. One that has reached the 50% IDR limelight is
> ETE. ETE is the GP for well known ETP. If ETE follows the past pattern
> it should start to boost dividends significantly, while ETP grows
> somewhat slower that in the past. I've left some detail out to keep
> this post short, so do your reading. Disclosure: I own both ETP and
> ETE, along with KMP,BWP and EPD.
> ]]> Tue, 14 Apr 2009 16:42:19 -0400 EPE). They hold GP stakes in EPD, ETE and TPP.


On Apr 07 03:28 PM thinking ahead wrote:

> A tip for fellow MLP holders: once cashflows reach certain thresholds,
> amounts diverted to the GP increase. These are called incentive distribution
> rights (IRD's), and they usually top out at tier 3 - 50%, after 15%
> and 25% steps. Most of the more established MLP's have already reached
> the top 50% IDR level (e.g. KMP, ETP, OKS). EPD is an example of
> a MLP that has a lower IDR threshold - 25% maximum.
>
> Once MLP's reach tier 3, the distribution growth typically slows
> - not stops, just slows - because more of the growth is being sent
> to the GP. It's all a way to incentivize the GP to do a good job
> for the MLP unit holders.
>
> One way to take advantage of this is to buy the GP's. But there are
> far fewer available, because these are the most profitable parts
> of the partnership structure and the smart guys like Kinder and Dan
> Duncan and Lowes like to keep the GP slot for themselves. But there
> are some available. One that has reached the 50% IDR limelight is
> ETE. ETE is the GP for well known ETP. If ETE follows the past pattern
> it should start to boost dividends significantly, while ETP grows
> somewhat slower that in the past. I've left some detail out to keep
> this post short, so do your reading. Disclosure: I own both ETP and
> ETE, along with KMP,BWP and EPD.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130226-even-warren-buffett-has-issues?source=feed#comment-457616 457616 Thu, 09 Apr 2009 12:08:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126596-berkshire-hathaway-climate-change-impacts-insurers?source=feed#comment-430633 430633
If I recall correctly, Berkshire's annual report noted that Midamerican had made significant investments in wind energy. They will raise their rates less than other utilities who have not made alternative energy investments.]]> Wed, 18 Mar 2009 11:34:45 -0400
If I recall correctly, Berkshire's annual report noted that Midamerican had made significant investments in wind energy. They will raise their rates less than other utilities who have not made alternative energy investments.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122091-dividend-aristocrats-strike-back?source=feed#comment-400750 400750 Mon, 23 Feb 2009 20:46:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115752-buffett-s-latest-headache-u-s-bancorp?source=feed#comment-362783 362783
The bank had a rough quarter, but they experienced deposit and loan growth. Their credit metrics didn't deteriorate as fast as their peers. If any one of Warren's major holdings has headaches, it's American Express or Wells Fargo - and even those two have very strong underlying businesses.]]> Thu, 22 Jan 2009 08:01:09 -0500
The bank had a rough quarter, but they experienced deposit and loan growth. Their credit metrics didn't deteriorate as fast as their peers. If any one of Warren's major holdings has headaches, it's American Express or Wells Fargo - and even those two have very strong underlying businesses.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115780-would-you-buy-bank-of-america-common?source=feed#comment-362542 362542
Having the government execute the original TARP plan and buy bad securities seems to be gaining more traction than having the government nationalize the banks. It would also be pretty hard for the government to nationalize all the big US banks. If the government doesn't nationalize, I don't see BoA being worth in the single digits.

That said, I don't have the stones to buy BoA. ]]> Wed, 21 Jan 2009 21:46:30 -0500
Having the government execute the original TARP plan and buy bad securities seems to be gaining more traction than having the government nationalize the banks. It would also be pretty hard for the government to nationalize all the big US banks. If the government doesn't nationalize, I don't see BoA being worth in the single digits.

That said, I don't have the stones to buy BoA. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115372-what-to-buy-and-why-barron-s-2009-roundtable-part-ii?source=feed#comment-360474 360474
As to Abby's pick of BAC common, I have to say that BAC (which I bought around $48) is starting to look like a deep value play. Ken made a blunder with the Merrill acquisition. However, BAC is not as scattered as Citi. Merrill's brokers are a solid asset. The bank has a dominant and stable retail presence in the US. The terms of the last aid package were not onerous. BAC is also too big to nationalize. I would prefer that Ken Lewis step down in atonement for the Merrill fiasco, but I think the bank will survive. $7 a share is not reasonable, either.]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 22:55:52 -0500
As to Abby's pick of BAC common, I have to say that BAC (which I bought around $48) is starting to look like a deep value play. Ken made a blunder with the Merrill acquisition. However, BAC is not as scattered as Citi. Merrill's brokers are a solid asset. The bank has a dominant and stable retail presence in the US. The terms of the last aid package were not onerous. BAC is also too big to nationalize. I would prefer that Ken Lewis step down in atonement for the Merrill fiasco, but I think the bank will survive. $7 a share is not reasonable, either.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110055-chesapeake-when-gas-prices-will-recover?source=feed#comment-326248 326248
The comment about Aubrey being a buccaneer really did it for me. The guy is hyper-aggressive. I happen to think he has a high chance of making it big. That said, there's downside risk in that if natural gas gets under, say, $4 for an extended period, I can see a situation in which he drives the company into the ground (meaning it needs a highly dilutive capital injection or files bankruptcy). Sub $4 natural gas is a bit of a doomsday scenario, but you can never tell what commodity prices will do.]]> Thu, 11 Dec 2008 09:17:33 -0500
The comment about Aubrey being a buccaneer really did it for me. The guy is hyper-aggressive. I happen to think he has a high chance of making it big. That said, there's downside risk in that if natural gas gets under, say, $4 for an extended period, I can see a situation in which he drives the company into the ground (meaning it needs a highly dilutive capital injection or files bankruptcy). Sub $4 natural gas is a bit of a doomsday scenario, but you can never tell what commodity prices will do.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108154-merger-arbitrage-sound-strategy-for-a-bear-market?source=feed#comment-316431 316431
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation's reconsideration of the K-Dow deal could be bad news for the merger if KPC negotiates a lower price with Dow. That would leave them less cash to complete the deal. I'm assuming that's why the stock dropped Wednesday. Stay tuned...]]> Thu, 27 Nov 2008 19:55:36 -0500
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation's reconsideration of the K-Dow deal could be bad news for the merger if KPC negotiates a lower price with Dow. That would leave them less cash to complete the deal. I'm assuming that's why the stock dropped Wednesday. Stay tuned...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108154-merger-arbitrage-sound-strategy-for-a-bear-market?source=feed#comment-316277 316277
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation's reconsideration of the K-Dow deal could be bad news for the merger if KPC negotiates a lower price with Dow. That would leave them less cash to complete the deal. I'm assuming that's why the stock dropped Wednesday. Stay tuned...]]> Thu, 27 Nov 2008 12:06:03 -0500
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation's reconsideration of the K-Dow deal could be bad news for the merger if KPC negotiates a lower price with Dow. That would leave them less cash to complete the deal. I'm assuming that's why the stock dropped Wednesday. Stay tuned...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108061-pot-the-commodity-surprise-of-the-year?source=feed#comment-315332 315332
Another potash-related name I like is Compass Minerals, which sells sulphate of potash, a specialty fertilizer for high value crops that are sensitive to regular potash. Compass is mainly a salt play but derives about 1/4 of its revenue from SOP. if potash prices stay high the company is way undervalued. its main salt business is a steady one.]]> Wed, 26 Nov 2008 08:24:41 -0500
Another potash-related name I like is Compass Minerals, which sells sulphate of potash, a specialty fertilizer for high value crops that are sensitive to regular potash. Compass is mainly a salt play but derives about 1/4 of its revenue from SOP. if potash prices stay high the company is way undervalued. its main salt business is a steady one.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103873-ford-have-you-driven-a-convertible-preferred-lately?source=feed#comment-313255 313255
I think the convertibles for Chesapeake and Bank of America offer decent values with good downside protection. In BAC's case, though, I'd wait to see how things shake out with Citi - if they're forced to fire sale assets, BAC will be forced to take heavy writedowns on mark to market accounting. They will then have to raise extra capital.]]> Sun, 23 Nov 2008 21:41:01 -0500
I think the convertibles for Chesapeake and Bank of America offer decent values with good downside protection. In BAC's case, though, I'd wait to see how things shake out with Citi - if they're forced to fire sale assets, BAC will be forced to take heavy writedowns on mark to market accounting. They will then have to raise extra capital.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104166-last-legal-stand-in-the-bce-privatization-deal?source=feed#comment-311918 311918
For non-Canadian arbitrageurs, there's currency risk. The USD was 1 for 1 to the CAD earlier, but today (11/21), it's CAD$1.29 to the USD. That means that the CAD$42.75 buyout offer is now worth $33 or so. Of course, BCE is trading about $26.50 on the NYSE. Even if the CAD somehow depreciates to $1.50 to the USD, US investors would still get US$28.50.

I'm a bit more worried that the deal might be delayed or renegotiated lower. Starting about 16 minutes into this interview, Mark McQueen of Wellington Financial in Canada believes that the banks will want to renegotiate and that a lower share price will be better for everyone involved (except BCE arbitrageurs). The interview was conducted at the end of October. The banks have been saying all the right things and TD reiterated its commitment in early Nov. ]]> Fri, 21 Nov 2008 13:47:38 -0500
For non-Canadian arbitrageurs, there's currency risk. The USD was 1 for 1 to the CAD earlier, but today (11/21), it's CAD$1.29 to the USD. That means that the CAD$42.75 buyout offer is now worth $33 or so. Of course, BCE is trading about $26.50 on the NYSE. Even if the CAD somehow depreciates to $1.50 to the USD, US investors would still get US$28.50.

I'm a bit more worried that the deal might be delayed or renegotiated lower. Starting about 16 minutes into this interview, Mark McQueen of Wellington Financial in Canada believes that the banks will want to renegotiate and that a lower share price will be better for everyone involved (except BCE arbitrageurs). The interview was conducted at the end of October. The banks have been saying all the right things and TD reiterated its commitment in early Nov. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102883-roh-dow-bud-three-arbitrage-opportunities?source=feed#comment-309766 309766 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 09:35:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/105676-the-sears-mistake?source=feed#comment-304704 304704
As to Sears, if Eddie plans to keep it as a retailer, he's running the place into the ground. He's trying to run a retailer like a hedge fund and failing. Ironically, I'm effectively long Sears because of a large investment in the Fairholme fund, which trusts his leadership.]]> Wed, 12 Nov 2008 23:00:33 -0500
As to Sears, if Eddie plans to keep it as a retailer, he's running the place into the ground. He's trying to run a retailer like a hedge fund and failing. Ironically, I'm effectively long Sears because of a large investment in the Fairholme fund, which trusts his leadership.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105599-four-reasons-radian-group-is-headed-higher?source=feed#comment-304373 304373 Wed, 12 Nov 2008 15:03:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/104207-the-volatility-is-killing-me-explaining-my-sale-of-expeditors-international?source=feed#comment-299020 299020 Wed, 05 Nov 2008 19:48:45 -0500