Does Apple iOS7 Really Matter To Investors? [View article]
I really wished they had followed Samsung and MSFT with respect to handwriting recognition. The pen would have required different displays and people would have had a strong reason to upgrade hardware. I am really worried that AAPL will miss the boat here, like MSFT did in the past. Also, I would have hoped for AAPL to introduce windows-like convertibles and, with its execution strength, being quicker to market on a broader scale than the MSFT guys. Sorry, I will take the IOS7 upgrades for existing hardware I own. I won't spend any new money as of now. Still waiting for new disruptive product. This is not enough, in my view.
Apple's Upcoming Products - Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
Well, in fact the situation has not changed. AAPLs existing business will face volume and margin pressure. But even a bear does need a bias of downside risks. And headline risk is for the upside given very low expectations for product innovation. I fear that AAPL could surprise to the upside: 1) Siri could be very powerful if it worked better; 2) Handwriting recognition is yet a black spot in AAPL product but a major selling point for future tablet pc upgrades, 3) MSFT is terribly poor and slow in executing the convertible strategy, AAPL being out and executing could be the game changer to the story. 4) Shorting on this level and with this product and headline risk does not appear to be a rewarding strategy.
3 Highly Liquid Stocks With Encouraging Sales Trends [View article]
GTI comment is poor quality. RAW material prices for example are not rising, but the company has to sell electrodes produced on higher cost needle coke and to use up old higher cost inventory while needle coke prices and electrode prices are DOWN. Product prices down immediately and cost down with a time lag results in margin compression that starts to ease in H2. There are more incorrect statements, but putting this right produces a comment longer than the article.
Friday - Options Expire Today, Will The Rally Expire Too? [View article]
Thanks for pointing out the DB article. I share your cautious view. Market is agressively driven up by derivative strategies and momentum plays. Relative return investors cannot withdraw. Liquidity flooding is bubbling all asset classes. This is getting scary - with no additional policies tools left over and lots to implode.
More on European car sales (previous): The 18-month losing streak for sales on the continent is over as Daimler (DDAIF.PK) and Volkswagen (VLKAY.PK) show double-digit growth with both putting in strong months in the U.K. and solid showings in Germany. Of the Japanese automakers, Nissan (NSANY.OB) made the most forward progress. [View news story]
You are right on the two working days. Two working days are some 8-9% artificial upside distortion. One has to be a US Investor to acturally read something positive into a 1.7% gain against this background. Jan-Apr sales (ie excluding the Easter distortion) were down more than 7% in Europe. Spain rose vs a very depressed base. Weakness in Italy and France despite the calendar tailwind are worrysome. You should not hope for a recovery in Germany. Germany was the strong market and the strong economy in Europe. We are declining from strong sales levels boosted by zero rate financing and w/o much investment opportunities in financial markets. With respect to Daimler: they do have a product cycle story, but new models will only be introduced in the US and China with a time-lag (pricing of the old E-class and S-class until autumn?). The 10% sales increase in Apr comes on the back of 2 more working days plus new product intro of CLA and E-Class, ie dealer registrations PLUS the A-Class running new vs old model. On top of all of this: Global Apr sales were already out. So shares are bid up sharply on no real news, misread news and cheap money chasing headlines. Have a nice weekend.
Microsoft's Earnings Report And Its Future - Part 2 [View article]
Thanks for the contribution. I may be wrong, but strongly believe the surface product is accounted for within the Windows Division and not within Entertainment and Devices Devisiion. The difference would be important. Adjusted Windows sales were only flat, including Surface sales, ie down if adjusted for surface sales, which was pretty disappointing to me.
Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
If volumes come down and margins with it, EPS fall dramatically faster than they have risen. The only thing preventing this to happen is new exiting product - with huge sales dynamic relative to the huge size of aapl. there is no visibility whatsoever with respect to aapl's product pipeline at this point.
Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
You meant sell high, close (short) lower? It is all about product innovation expectations. Samsung has become more innovative than AAPL and its products are cheaper on top. For as long as Cook has nothing promising to show, the stock will go the path of least resistance. Too many retail investors are sitting on rising losses. Will Cook deliver something before retail investors have their big capitulation??? I guess someone will need to tell him that trust into management is also a function of the share price trend. And in this respect, even Balmer is performing better than Cook. (By the way: the valuation of AAPL is only rediculous relative to MSFT if one uses rediculous MSFT EPS)
Apple Is Not Worth Less Than Microsoft [View article]
Well alphaman35 has likely more money left than aapl shareholders that came in too late to the game. While sharing his concerns on volume and margins in existing products, I value aapl's platform for media and app sales (based on the built and growing user-base) and aapl's ability to execute on new product ideas. The MSFT-Ecosystem has so far failt in bringing to market touch-enabled convertible PCs in larger scale. As a MSFT shareholder I am deeply frustrated and wonder how quickly aapl would be able to bring to market corresponding product.
Microsoft: The Buy Case For Redmond's Giant [View article]
I stopped reading where the author started to discuss a (historical) P/E metrix of 15.7 arguing the stock being at a discount to the sector at this metrix. FWD PER? Net cash? Loss making devisions? New product? Annual subscription vs upfront licence payment?
Surface RT (MSFT) sales "have slowed considerably in the last month from an already anemic pace" and could be below 50K/month, according to Detwiler Fenton's checks. Surface Pro sales are a little better - Detwiler estimates a Q1 tally of 300K-500K - in part due to limited competition from PC OEMs. The firm is counting on the launch of Windows Blue (expected to support 7" tablets) and Office's touch-friendly Gemini updates to give Windows 8 Pro tablet sales a lift. (Bloomberg) [View news story]
Why shouldn't they? If they sell 400k/month in the US/Canada with limited supply, you only need to add Europe and Asia to the equation and 1m per month looks very, very conservative. I will use it as a back-up PC with external main screen (doublicate screen) while navigating and typing on the surface as an input device lying on the table. The portable part of the story is just add-on.
Zoltek Seems Like A Takeover Is In The Works, Possibly In The Mid Teens [View article]
If you win the lottery, you don't care for the odds and the money at risk. It's ok if you approach it like that. 2013 is no year for strong CF sales into wind. The upside, in my view, is Magna not Quinn
Zoltek Seems Like A Takeover Is In The Works, Possibly In The Mid Teens [View article]
Zoltek's single most important customer is Vestas. Vestas supply contracts carry a Change of Control Clause that may or may not be triggered in the event of a takeover. I fail to see how an Investment in ZOLT could be low risk. It may well work, there is a Story, but there is risk in the event that a deal will not be reached.
Buffett Style Valuation Of The Microsoft Corporation [View article]
In my view handwriting recognition will become the most useful APP for business use of tablets. This is software. I cannot see where AAPL is in this. I do see Samsung. I do see MSFT. Imagine the potential of tablet (PCs) replacing paper, folders and books. This is a revolution in the making for office, universities and school education.
Does Apple iOS7 Really Matter To Investors? [View article]
Apple's Upcoming Products - Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
3 Highly Liquid Stocks With Encouraging Sales Trends [View article]
Friday - Options Expire Today, Will The Rally Expire Too? [View article]
plays. Relative return investors cannot withdraw. Liquidity flooding is bubbling all asset classes. This is getting scary - with no additional policies tools left over and lots to implode.
More on European car sales (previous): The 18-month losing streak for sales on the continent is over as Daimler (DDAIF.PK) and Volkswagen (VLKAY.PK) show double-digit growth with both putting in strong months in the U.K. and solid showings in Germany. Of the Japanese automakers, Nissan (NSANY.OB) made the most forward progress. [View news story]
Microsoft's Earnings Report And Its Future - Part 2 [View article]
Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
(By the way: the valuation of AAPL is only rediculous relative to MSFT if one uses rediculous MSFT EPS)
Apple Is Not Worth Less Than Microsoft [View article]
Microsoft: The Buy Case For Redmond's Giant [View article]
Surface RT (MSFT) sales "have slowed considerably in the last month from an already anemic pace" and could be below 50K/month, according to Detwiler Fenton's checks. Surface Pro sales are a little better - Detwiler estimates a Q1 tally of 300K-500K - in part due to limited competition from PC OEMs. The firm is counting on the launch of Windows Blue (expected to support 7" tablets) and Office's touch-friendly Gemini updates to give Windows 8 Pro tablet sales a lift. (Bloomberg) [View news story]
Zoltek Seems Like A Takeover Is In The Works, Possibly In The Mid Teens [View article]
Zoltek Seems Like A Takeover Is In The Works, Possibly In The Mid Teens [View article]
Buffett Style Valuation Of The Microsoft Corporation [View article]
Buffett Style Valuation Of The Microsoft Corporation [View article]