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ArKeh

ArKeh
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  • Avoid Deutsche Bank On Risk Of Financials Being Misstated [View article]
    I guess US regulatory statements (US GAAP?) and financial reporting under IFRS should not be put into the same basket. I would actually wonder if DB used US regulatory filings for purposes of internal controls when the group is actually reporting under IFRS. DB has also already admitted to the need to raise investment into better reporting systems to deal with differing needs of alternative jurisdictions with their Q1 reporting. In so far, this issue is not preventing me from owning DB.
    Jul 30 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: What's Next? [View article]
    It is not long ago that investors worried over the windows franchise being a going concern or not. By then the stock was grossly undervalued (28USD). Now we are at 44 USD and everybody looks for the castle in the cloud. If the trend is for OS-independent software as a service, I tend to think of MSFT as a company that needs to run fast in order to stand still. The high margin windows franchise would be set for decline. I am somewhat nervous about the recent share price surge and wonder whether it is used as an exit opportunity.
    Jul 24 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche Bank AG: At A Crossroads [View article]
    73, not 37 :o) (Just see were aapl and msft traded when I war arguing against the market wisdom)
    Jul 23 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche Bank AG: At A Crossroads [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1oIOJNP

    STRONG call purchases today in Sep and Aug Calls
    Jul 16 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche Bank AG: At A Crossroads [View article]
    When a management's strategy is for downsizing the balance sheet, for growing capital by returned earnings and for rejecting a need to raise capital AND then they go on to admitting that regulatory and litigation challenges turned out tougher than expected, admitting that additional costs for regulation have emerged and operating conditions to be weak, and for this reason they can no longer rule-out a capital increase, then obviously something has changed! Huge Put positions at 32 and 28 Euro had built before the capital increase was announced when stock was still around 35. I actually thought that most of the capital increase news was already in the price when it came out. What led to the huge price erosion was in my view that a capital increase to higher litigation risks and regulatory needs does not produce earnings. This is the sole benefit to the investor is that the risk is adressed and out of the way. When however market cap post capital increase is market cap before the stock slide, it suggests to me that the cash inflow has been priced as risk buffer, but the fact that risks are now better adresses (valuation parameters) have not changed. Price overshot to the downside on huge supply overhang, poor performance of stock, good entry point in my view. I play in calls in order to know my downside (mainly market correction)
    Jul 16 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche Bank AG: At A Crossroads [View article]
    Put positions expired on the last trading day of rights-trading (3rd Friday in June)
    Jul 16 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche Bank AG: At A Crossroads [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1jPifp7

    More call-buying at this point.
    Jul 16 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche Bank AG: At A Crossroads [View article]
    I am only looking at Eurex Put Options. Are you looking at short interest in the US only or do your figs include European figs?
    Jul 16 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche Bank AG: At A Crossroads [View article]
    The capital increase was announced 18 May, but there was press speculation far earlier and management indicated to do whatever is necessary (including capital increase) to bring its tier1 ratio towards target. So DBK was the target of heavy shorting already ahead of the actual announcement of the capital measure.
    Jul 15 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche Bank AG: At A Crossroads [View article]
    DBK earnings are burdened by legal costs and costs to achieve a major savings initiative. The company targets 4.5bn Euros in savings to be achieved in 2015 when annual costs to achieve are finally expected to drop from 1.5bn in 2014 to 0.2bn. This suggests that barely visible net savings of more than 4bn are expected to benefit the P&L. There are some offsetting factors, eg lower revenues and higher regulatory costs, but earnings are likely to move from very low compared to tangible book to allowing for a valuation of the stock more closely to or at premium to tangible book. I am very long call options.
    Jul 15 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche Bank AG: At A Crossroads [View article]
    Deutsche Bank for long tried to avoid a capital increase to raise their equity ratios. In so far, the revenue decline is at least partially attributable to downsizing the balance sheet and the disposing of non-core assets. Given the adverse operational environment, they had to change course as disappointing operating profitability and rising legal costs enforced such action. Despite the sizeable capital increase of 8.5bn Euro just completed, the company is now trading lower in market cap with the new shares than it traded early this year without (<36bn Euro). I would thus consider the stock worsewhile a look as it appears to offer a strong value case within an overvalued market. Given very poor sentiment, the missing bit is a catalyst for the stock price, in my view. Any back to normal (benchmark) allocation could result in a strong share price reaction.
    Jul 14 06:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power +20% on multi-site GenKey order [View news story]
    @Doewap - I would never regret to not have owned something when this was for a good reason. I simply will not make money acting the other way around - owning something against my judgement. I simply distrust turnover in PLUG and the way the stock is managed up premarket in less liquid European trading. Enjoy your profit. I had mine in BLDP.
    Feb 10 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UnPLUG - Plug Power Can't Control Their Own Fate [View article]
    I continue to believe the turnover is very suspecious so that I will not Touch the stock.
    Feb 7 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Tim Cook's Brilliant Move [View article]
    Assume a 10% rev decline in saturated Marktes for the existing Business, a gross Margin going from 38% to 30% and AAPLs existing Business could be worth some 250-280 per Share plus XS cash. what sort of gigantic Produkt Innovation Do you expect to See gigantic upside in AAPL? Nice Company, no Investment.
    Feb 7 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Intrinsic Value And The Market's Irrational Valuation [View article]
    As a starting point for feeling save in AAPL: product is globally rolled out. Markets are more and more saturated. Just assume a 10% revenue decline, gross margin going from 38% to 30%, operating expenses stay were they are, and your profit is some 30-40% lower. Then add back a bit of XS cash and ask yourself how much you are willing to pay for future business potential in new product. There is an exceptionally strong brand, enormous distribution power etc. I would feel much better to buy into the stock at 400-450 than 500. Will it go there? Who knows?
    Jan 31 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
278 Comments
279 Likes