Seeking Alpha
  • ArKeh
    GTI: very rational share price response to weakness in steel stocks after UBS downgrade due to earnings of European steel comps. Firstly, ..
    9/17/12
    Reply (26)
    • ArKeh: ... GTI is only sensitive to volume (not steel price) as compared to clients. Secondly, 2012 books are closed, thirdly,
      9/17/12
    • ArKeh: balance sheet and indebtedness of GTI is better. Given more defensive character, the share price move is barely rational,
      9/17/12
    • Gloria Kessler: The volume has droppped and debt has gottten worse. Price will drop free fall very soon.
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: BOF uses 25% scrap and EAF 100%. BOF production declines, scrap supply unaffected, scrap prices down. Will EAF production rise or fall?
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: GTI proactively cut output for H2 to prevent inventory overhang. Generate cash by reduction, cash use mainly share buyback.
      9/18/12
    • Gloria Kessler: Who will be buying from them in 2013? Are there any locked in orders? What are the estimates?
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: Gloria, at this time of the year there is no book for 13. But: 2012 started with a price hike, thus stocking by clients in Q4 11 and very...
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: low demand in H1 12. GTI also produced for inventory in Q4 11 on still lower needle coke which went up 30% in price in Q1.
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: Thus low production in H1 for H2 and low fixed cost absorption. GTI destocks inventory in H2 and generates cash, has cut production plans
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: to end year w/o excess investory and to be in good negotiating position with clients for 13. Clients have no xs inventory any more.
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: Even if 13 is a weak year for steel production, you will not have the Q4 11 effect of clients stocking electrodes before price hike while
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: consuming next to nothing due to demand weakness in the same quarter. 2013 volume will be up for GTI vs 2012. And price is unlikely to
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: collapse with inventories low, oil prices high, and GTI being a backward integrated low cost producer.
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: Close your shorts while you can and grab the asset below BVPS. GTI could theoretically utilise Seadrift 100%, but supply agreements with
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: ... third party expire only over time and you do want to have a 2nd source supplier. Super premium needle coke developed, space for capacity
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: expansion etc: the whole argument with goodwill writedown is nonesense used to support a unjustified bear-case. This comp is 125 years old.
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: Purchasing cost of PPE may be far below replacement cost. This stock is the most conservative in the steel arena.
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: The main risk in this stock is not the steel market. It is short-sellers pushing others out of the market. There is however the chance that
      9/18/12
    • ArKeh: someone sizeable buying comes in, leaving short sellers in a truly unfortunate position. Your short case is fundamentally flawed.
      9/18/12
    • Gloria Kessler: down the company with lower cost producer from China will take sales away. No competitve edge and CEO is not prepare for US downturn.
      9/19/12
    • Gloria Kessler: You are correct and helped me prove my case. No estimate of sale for 2013 therefore 125 year infrastructure high cost will bring down the
      9/19/12
    • ArKeh: Do we agree that I invest on fundamental value and you invest on where you believe share prices can be driven to using manipulation?
      9/19/12
    • Gloria Kessler: Doom in October
      9/19/12
    • Gloria Kessler: MT just invested 50 million for their plant for expansion and GTI didn't invest in their own plant but stock so officer can enjoy bonus
      9/19/12
    • ArKeh: Could you pls let share your wisdom in a way that reasonable peoplle can follow your weird reasoning? You does share buyback affect bonus?
      9/19/12
    • ArKeh: MT invested in what? And what is the link to GTI investing in stock? Gloria please, give us one good argument with a reasonable basis.
      9/19/12