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Edward Yoxen

Edward Yoxen
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  • Salesforce Makes Political, But Not Yet Economic, Statement Over Indiana [View article]
    My sense is that most people would have some difficulty in understanding how such sentences were crafted so as to allow people not to supply services to people of whose sexual preferences they disapprove. Perhaps you could explain that, unless that was contrary to your purpose here ?
    Mar 29, 2015. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Jury Ready? Time To Evaluate AbbVie Post-Spinoff [View article]
    I have enjoyed the nuanced and substantive replies to Tubgun, but there are two other issues in the article which deserve comment. One is Gonzalez's alleged lack of a university education and the other the break-up fee in the failed Shire transaction. I have no idea if Mr Gonzalez lacks the credentials Tubgun claims. But as an AbbVie investor I really could not care. I think it is a fallacy to assume that large companies are run by one man and the fortunes of the company stand or fall by the educational background of the CEO. Secondly it is hilarious to assume that the terms of the breakup fee were an individual's oversight. Any transaction is the work of dozens of advisers and every clause in an agreement is fought over at length. One must also assume that the board of AbbVie accepted the difficult terms of the breakup fee, and that this too was debated at length. These may have been reckless decisions but they did not arise from one person's alleged shortcomings. Bizarre.
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Jury Ready? Time To Evaluate AbbVie Post-Spinoff [View article]
    Thank you for the reply. I agree that they seem to have a multipart strategy to protect and extend this vital franchise, as you would expect. I have to say that I am somewhat skeptical of the needles device which can be used to deliver Humira. In my experience pharma companies never seem to do well with novel injection systems. Their suppliers can do, but the devices themselves fail to appeal to the market. A case in point would seem to be Antares with its methotrexate injector.
    Mar 16, 2015. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Jury Ready? Time To Evaluate AbbVie Post-Spinoff [View article]
    I concur with the general view that the article was pretty light on recent information. I read the comment by Rick Gonzalez about the Humira IP activity with some amazement, since it would be such a coup, if it can be achieved. Re-reading the comments again in the conference transcript, through your link, they seemed much less confident, just sensible, cautious and prudent - but still remarkable in their implications,
    Mar 16, 2015. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Halyard Health: A Long-Term Healthcare Play With Takeover Possibilities [View article]
    I am not sure that Halyard's performance is as encouraging as you imply, although I agree that spin-offs tend to outperform the market.

    I believe that commentators exaggerate the impact of diseases like Ebola on the infection protection side of their business. If you check their product range on their web site you will struggle to find anything more sophisticated than standard face masks, eye shields and gowns. These are precisely the kinds of products which were used in the first instance in the recent crisis, and proved not to be very effective. I suppose you could argue that hospitals will continue to buy less than optimal protection. In the most recent quarter the sales growth came from a severe flu season, according to the company. In other words it is hard to see that this part of the business, which is the larger part, is going to be very exciting.

    On the other side of the house, there is the curious comment that their surgical pain business - disposable infusion pumps used after surgery - did not do well because of competitive activity. From whom one might ask ? Why has it become so effective ? Is this a sign of future declines ? In other words, somewhat worrying, when you combine this with the information about their R and D spend which was 2% of sales - not unusual for a medical supplies company, but nothing like enough for a company seeking to grow the higher margin device of the business.
    Mar 9, 2015. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where The German Right And Greek Left See Eye-To-Eye [View article]
    Interesting article and thank you for the link to The Guardian article (and the fascinating discussion which it provoked among readers). I think we might also ask, even though the German right and Greek left may agree on leaving the EMU, does the coincidence of views actually matter ? That is to say, German politicians like Wolfgang Schauble are quite smart enough to realize how much the German banking system has gained from the loans to Greece, and thus must be reluctant to see that support withdrawn, whatever they may say to their voters. Equally the academic economists like Professors Varoufakis and Lapavitas no doubt realize this too, as also the short-term effects of leaving the Eurozone on the Greek economy. What is less clear is how important their views are likely to be in determining what the government actually does, given that Syriza is in a coalition with a right wing party. It remains to seen whether Syriza is markedly different from its predecessors, in making promises which are promptly broken and allowing huge structural inefficiencies to continue in the economy.
    Mar 3, 2015. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With Product Sales And Drugs In The Pipeline, The Future Looks Bright For Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Erm, hate to say it, but the usage is "in accordance with", but thank you for starting the Godot string which I enjoyed, as did others.
    Feb 27, 2015. 02:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Dirty Little Rare Earth Secret: Follow-Up Points [View article]
    So one investment question we might ask ourselves is whether there are any commercially interesting companies working on electronic goods recycling and specifically on rare earth extraction. (I know that the numbers are presently unfavorable).
    Feb 27, 2015. 08:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Dirty Little Rare Earth Secret: Follow-Up Points [View article]
    I was a fairly severe critic of your first article - though not on the comments section to your article - and I continue to think that you are wrong in a number of respects, not least the imminence of the possible threat to the iPhone product series. But your suggested remedy was, to my mind, particularly perverse, namely that Apple should invest or even acquire a small miner. It seems to me that this is not the way that Apple, or any company like it, does business. All of the components you mention come from suppliers. Apple designs the product, specifies the components, locates specialist suppliers and negotiates a price (and no doubt many other contract issues.) I would expect them to have raised any potential scarcity issue with their suppliers and expect them to make the investments or do the R and D to get around the problem. I would also expect Apple to be looking some way ahead of new technologies, new suppliers and new manufacturing arrangements, to stay ahead of any availability issues with key components. Long AAPL, unless they start investing in high risk mining ventures.
    Feb 26, 2015. 03:05 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Use Of Rare Earths: Hardly A Secret, Or A Threat [View article]
    I enjoyed your article, in particular the gentle but authoritative rebuttal of Kramer-Miller's assertions. I thought that article was so wide of the mark commercially as to be seriously embarrassing to someone who purports to follow and evaluate investment opportunities. Your article provided a lot of technical detail which was useful and interesting. Thank you.
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras declares victory [View news story]
    Tspiras is a populist politician, who knows that he has to appear confident and upbeat, even when he is a weak position. He is saying what you would expect him to say. To me the question is whether his supporters take to the streets to protest the negotiated settlement and whether the European lenders accept the list of reforms which they are promised on Monday. My sense is that for the moment the demonstrations will not happen, unless they are from the ultranationalist right and that the list of reforms has already been notionally accepted. Personally much as I might dislike the irresponsibility of Greek governments over the last 20 years, I see this as preferable to the collapse of the Greek economy and turmoil in world markets.
    Feb 22, 2015. 09:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hospira Moves The Needle For Pfizer Spin-Out [View article]
    It would be interesting what to know Pfizer has in mind for that part of Hospira which makes and sells medical devices, including a substantial range of infusion pumps. 15 years ago Pfizer went through a long cycle of divesting its own medical device portfolio, so it is hard to believe that they will retain this for long. If that is the case then there will be some additional cash coming in to discount the cost of this move.
    Feb 6, 2015. 08:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terror Cover-Up Scandal In Argentina: Investment Implications Of Prosecutor Nisman's Death [View article]
    Why does it take 20 years to investigate a bombing ? I would think that Mossad got a clear view of things much sooner. I am not saying, What was Nisman doing all that time, but what kind of political culture allows (or requires) things to take so long ? Or was the matter treated as beyond discussion for a long time until Nisman decided to open it up again ?
    Jan 30, 2015. 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The (European) Parents Fight And The Kids Hear Everything [View article]
    Very interesting analysis of the possible solutions to the conflict between the troika and the new Greek government, which I accept, as also the view that Americans tend to be tone deaf to the complexities of EU political debate, but one has to wonder what will happen within Greece when the Tsipras government has to make a major U-turn on increased pensions, social benefits and privatization, i.e. on major items in its election platform. Does the coalition fall apart ? Probably not. Are there strikes and demonstrations ? Quite likely. Does the government fall ? Certainly possible. I think anyone buying Greek equities presently is taking a big risk.
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece, 'Europe's Argentina', Strikes Again [View article]
    At last a comment which acknowledges some of the complexities of the party political situation in Greece, instead of the usual crass, dismissive comments about the fecklessness of the Greeks. We could add to this list the fact that coalition partners seem pretty incompatible, which suggests that the government might not last too long, and that there are truly awful alternatives waiting in the wings (Golden Dawn).

    Having said I have yet to see much indication of what Syriza will do in its negotiations with the troika, and what they will do, if anything, to tackle some of the endemic problems and inefficiencies in the Greek economy - chronic tax evasion, tarriff and other barriers to trade, overmanning etc. And that is troubling, but these are politicians in an election period. But one could imagine that the more accomodating lenders will agree to longer repayment terms (as Bret Jensen seems to suggest) and the crisis of debt servicing will be pushed back.

    The market reaction today suggests that investors are not massively concerned about such an outcome.
    Jan 26, 2015. 07:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment