Four female investors and one Dachshund.
We no longer trade equities. Heidi and Desiree's interests are in the fields of global water distribution, agriculture, and timberland. Clarissa and Helga manage strategies of certain hard assets, predominantly the PGM metals group.
While our names (Heidi, Helga, Clarissa and Desiree) may not be our real names, Schnitzel the Dachshund's name really is "Schnitzel the Dachshund."
Commodity broker 79-81 I discovered the Gospel In July 1979 (and re-discovered it again in April 2004 -after the G.6 release was dis-continued - actually created the RR time series in the late 1980's). Dr. Leland Pritchard "You have a predictive device nobody has hit on yet" - 9/8/81 My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%. AAA Corporate yields rose to 15.49%. I should receive the Nobel Prize. The data should be classified as "top secret" by the U.S. Gov't. I.e., I let Aladdin out of the Lamp. See: 1938 Member Bank Reserve Requirements - Analysis of Committee Proposal (transactions velocity) http://bit.ly/M0JB7X The outstanding volume of the FRB_NY "trading desk's" 'eligible collateral' fell during the Great Depression. Whereas 'eligible collateral' was multiplied thru colossal Federal deficit financing (where the Gov’t spends much more than it expects to receive), during the Great Recession (but Bernanke still chose to "push on a string"). As Greenspan pontificated in “The Map & the Territory”: “The laws of physics…once identified, rarely have to be revised”: Rates-of-change (roc’s) in monetary flows (our means-of-payment money times its transactions rate-of-turnover), equal roc’s in all transactions in Irving Fisher’s “equation of exchange”: (MVt = PT). Roc’s in nominal-gDp are a proxy for all economic transactions. The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e. the proxies for (1) real-growth, & for (2) inflation indices have been mathematical constants for the last 100 years. However, the FED's target (interest rates), is indirect, varies widely over time, & in magnitude. President Wilson signed “The Federal Reserve Act” into law on December 23, 1913. The Act, "Provided for the establishment of Federal Reserve Banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes". "It was anticipated that credit extended by the Federal Reserve Banks to commercial banks would rise and fall with seasonal and longer term variations in business activity" "Seasonality" (principally the holidays), is the result of the FOMC’s seasonal mal-adjustments (& has its roots in the fallacious "Real Bills Doctrine”). The FOMC, through its "open market power", has the capability of either adding or subtracting to the volume of money in circulation. But the non-bank public determines its mix (the volume of currency vs. bank deposits). This policy is reflected by changes in the Depository Financial Institution’s (DFI), required reserve balances. RRs are based on transaction type accounts 30 days prior. Reserve balances are driven by consumer's & business' payment & settlements. Thus RRs provide the seasonal factor map (economic time series’ cyclical trend). This is inviolate & sacrosanct. Some calls: (1) flow5 (2/26/07; 14:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 152672) Suckers Rally If gold doesn't fall, then there's a new paradigm (2) Reply #187 on Jul 21, 2011, 8:31pm » the stock market should be topping & in the process of a downtrend (3) flow5 Comments (3049) As it now stands, the market falls until Oct. Then expect a very strong rally. Everybody should double up in Nov. & Dec. (i.e., futures, options, margin, etc.) 5 Aug 2011, 09:04 (4) Written on Mar 30 11:31 am prior to the MAY 6th FLASH CRASH: "Contrary to economic theory, & Nobel laureate Dr. Milton Friedman, monetary lags are not "long & variable". The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e., the proxies for (1) real-growth, and for (2) inflation indices, are historically, always, fixed in length (mathematical constants). However the lag for nominal gdp (the FED's target??), varies widely." Assuming no quick countervailing stimulus: 2010 jan..... 0.54.... 0.25 top feb..... 0.50.... 0.10 mar.... 0.54.... 0.08 apr..... 0.46.... 0.09 top may.... 0.41.... 0.01 stocks fall Been saying this for the last 6 months. Should see shortly. Stock market makes a double top in Jan & Apr. Then the real-output of final goods & services falls/inverts from (9) to (1) from Apr to May. Recent history indicates that this will be a marked, short, one month drop, in rate-of-change for real-output (-8). So stocks follow the economy down (with yields moving sympathetically?)" (5) flow5 Message #10 - 05/03/10 07:30 PM The markets usually turn (pivot) on May 5th (+ or - 1 day). (6) POSTED: Dec 13 2007 06:55 PM | The Commerce Department said retail sales in Oct 2007 increased by 1.2% over Oct 2006, & up a huge 6.3% from Nov 2006. 10/1/2007,,,,,,,-0.47,,,,,,, -0.22 * temporary bottom 11/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.14,,,,,,, -0.18 12/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.44,,,,,,,-0.23 1/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.59,,,,,,, 0.06 2/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.45,,,,,,, 0.10 3/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.06,,,,,,, 0.04 4/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.04,,,,,,, 0.02 5/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.09,,,,,,, 0.04 6/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.20,,,,,,, 0.05 7/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.32,,,,,,, 0.10 8/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.15,,,,,,, 0.05 9/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.00,,,,,,, 0.13 10/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.20,,,,,,, 0.10 * possible recession 11/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.10,,,,,,, 0.00 * possible recession 12/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.10,,,,,,, -0.06 * possible recession Trajectory as predicted: (7) 12-16-12, 01:50 PM #1 flow5 "We’re close to seeing the real power of OMOs. R-gDp is likely to accelerate earlier & faster than anyone now expects. The roc in M*Vt before any new stimulus is already above average. With low inflation (given some deficit resolution), Jan-Apr could be a zinger" (8) June's reversal will end the bull market that began in the early 80's. And it will not be because Operation Twist ends (although its end will force yields higher). 20 May 2012, 03:04 PMReply (9) This propelled nominal gNp to 19.2% in the 1st qtr 1981, the FFR to 22%, & AAA Corporates to 15.49%. My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%.
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A recent Chemical Engineering Graduate of Ohio State University with ~ 1 year experience in the oil and gas industry. I am a part time investor focused on fundamental company earning analysis and insider trading to determine stock value.
Although I like to focus on small-mid cap companies
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Founder and Lead Analyst at Lone Wolf Publications Ltd (www.lonewolftrader.com).
I also manage a private investment portfolio full time, and also provide mutual fund analysis and buy recommendations to individual investors managing their own investments.
I trade for myself via ETFs and futures markets, with interests in commodities generally and a special interest in precious metals.
Wall Street Forensics - Chief Research Analyst www.wallstreetforensics.com Instavest Lead Investor - You can follow my personal trades and invest your own money with me via Instavest www.instavest.com My focus is on ground breaking technology and the companies that will deliver them in the future. I have managed a family portfolio since 2008 that has been focused on growth and income generation. You can follow me on twitter @WallStForensics
My Wall Street Forensics weekly newsletter provides in-depth and analysis of tech companies. Individually stock picks are recommended portfolio weightings and price targets. Investment picks may range from emerging technology companies that are highly speculative stocks and come with very high risks and very high rewards or momentum stocks that are more mature and come with downside risks but potential explosive upside potential. Stock picks are held captive for Wall Street Forensic subscribers for weeks or months before they are released to the public. This gives subscribers an advantage to get in early before the general public is alerted of my investment picks.
I am a strategic leader with over 13 years of experience in Internal Audit, Accounting, Finance and independent investment research for multi-billion dollar corporations with a demonstrated record of achievement and understanding of business processes, corporate strategy, financial month end close and forecasting.
I have a financial oriented mind with the ability to understand technology, operations and the financial impact of change on an organization’s income statement. My research efforts are focused on technology and the relationship of various data inputs to assemble conclusions and various scenario outcomes. I have been recognized as an independent research expert in technology specifically related to Apple and Intel by various media outlets including The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, USA Today and CNN Money.
My general area of focus is on technology companies. Specifically, technology companies that will help improve and are improving and impacting our daily lives. I enjoy taking a deep dive into up and coming tech companies or companies that are enduring product or industry transition.
Engineer by trade and passion. Have worked internationally for over three decades, running my own business. I hold a PhD in engineering, but honestly believe that the school of hard knocks has taught me lessons that are more applicable to my writing here on Seeking Alpha.
My investing interests mostly concern the resource sector, with a focus on precious metals, base metals and energy stocks of all sizes. My research explicitly includes small- and micro-cap juniors, and I try to manage the associated risks in a methodical manner.
I share my experiences (good and bad) in trading stocks and results of thousands of trading simulations in my books. My primary book is Complete The Art of Investing (http://www.amazon.com/dp/B01AASN2GA).
My blog is http://tonyp4idea.blogspot.com.
Retired early from IT and work full-time in investing. Develop strategies to trade. It is my passion to check out why some strategies work and why some only work in certain market conditions.
Doug Eberhardt is a 30 year investment professional offering his analysis on 46 ETFs 5 days a week providing buy and sell recommendations. He is the author of the soon to be released book "Illusions of Wealth" that offers a fresh look on how investors can profit. He has written the book "Buy Gold and Silver Safely" and is a broker/dealer selling gold and silver coins and bars at 1% over wholesale cost to investors who are looking for "real wealth" diversification and protection from currency depreciation.
Lejun James Shao is the founder of www.myIRAs.net (http://www.myIRAs.net/), WhitePine Investment Inc of USA, and CEO of WhitePine Software Inc, Beijing, China. He was the top finisher in MSN's 1st US One Million Dollar Investment Contest, "Strategy Open Tournament," with a +45.88% return in 4 months from August 28 - December 2008.
An IT wizard turned professional investor, James Shao graduated from the University of Michigan with a PhD degree in Computer Engineering in 1990 and worked as an assistant professor in Singapore's Nanyang Technology University for 5 years after graduation. He worked as Chief Software Engineer in DSP Technology, Design Engineer in Ford Motor Company, and several other high tech companies after his return. James Shao started his investment profession in 2001.
Hardassetsinvestor.com (http://hardassetsinvestor.com/) is a Van Eck Associates-sponsored, research oriented Web site devoted to sharing ideas about hard assets investing. The site has been developed as an educational resource for both individual and institutional investors interested in learning more about commodity equities, commodity futures and gold (the three major components of the hard assets marketplace). The site focuses on hard assets investing, without endorsing or recommending any particular investment product or approach.
Visit: Hard Assets Investor (http://hardassetsinvestor.com/)
Avi Gilburt is a lawyer and accountant by training. He formerly was a partner and National Director at a national firm.
Mr. Gilburt is also the Managing Member of Gilburt Financial Services, LLC, which provides:
- Financial market analysis to the public through ElliottWaveTrader.net;
- Elliott Wave market analysis to institutional clients;
- Specific stock analysis to retail clients; and
- Webinars and personal coaching on Elliott Wave analysis.
He is also the Managing Member of the of the consulting firm of Gilburt & Associates, LLC, which specializes in transaction structuring and tax services.
I am a chemist by trade and an Austrian Economist by study and love discussing the capital markets and take a qualitative approach to global monetary trends and a technical, quantitative approach to trading. My current focus is on emerging markets of Southeast Asia as well as gold and strategic commodities.
Feel free to find me on:
We strive to build highly disciplined, sensible client portfolios. Portfolios that are focused on investing in businesses with solid free cash flows and solid dividend payouts. We buy businesses, not stocks.
Tim is a Registered Investment Advisor.
Sol Palha is the head financial analyst at Tactical Investor. He is a self-taught Student of the Markets, having widely read conventional and non-conventional texts on all aspects of technical analysis, Mass Psychology and philosophy (as he believes it can be quite useful in terms of market analysis). He has been studying the markets for over 18 years. He combines mass psychology, technical analysis and a new field of study that he has pioneered, Esoteric Cycle Analysis to determine market tops and bottoms. Mass Psychology and Technical analysis is a deadly combination, and has enabled us to accurately determine Market tops and bottoms in advance of the actual event. One should not confuse topping and bottoming action, with trying to predict the actual top or bottom------- An endeavor best left to fools with plenty of time on their hands and an inordinate capacity to deal with pain and failure.
Dana Blankenhorn http://www.danablankenhorn.com has been a business journalist since 1978, and a futurist all his life.He warned about the coming Houston oil collapse in 1979. He began making a living on the Internet in 1985. He launched the first e-commerce daily for CMP in 1994, warned of the coming dot-bomb at a-clue.com in 1997 and began covering the Internet of Things in 2003.Along the way he's written for a host of newspapers, magazines, news services and Web sites. Most recently he was at TheStreet.com, covering technology and investments. He still has time for freelance assignments. He lives in Atlanta.
Ashraf Eassa is a technology specialist with The Motley Fool. He writes mostly about technology stocks, but is especially interested in anything related to chips -- the semiconductor kind, that is.