zmannalpha

12 Comments

    • Energy Stock Trader: Monday Outlook [view article]
      Greg - for once we agree on something (oil shale that is) and you didn't bother to kick my teeth in. Thanks pal. Jul 11 12:49 PM
    • Energy Stock Trader: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
      Josh. I'm not convinced the rebound in gas is real. Some tropical waves and the fact that it's been beat down so much of late. Maybe a little short covering but nothing serious. Come on over to the site and we'll chat about it. Jul 11 12:47 PM
    • Energy Stock Trader: Tuesday Outlook [view article]
      Thanks Bill, come by the site zmansenergybrain.com or philstockworld.com. We do this every day. Tell your buddies, spread the word. Oh you can vote for the site too! I don't monitor the chat over here as I'm busy enough with the traffic on my site and Phil's but stop by and sign up for delivery via email or RSS, it's fast and free. Jun 02 11:26 PM
    • Chesapeake Energy: Value is the Gas in the Ground [view article]
      Is any institution conerned about the non-cash charge? It's valued cash flow, not earnings anyway.

      As far as CHK goes, much of the Street is sorely underestimateing the asset here. Producing > a Bcfgpd gross from the Barnett with 300 wells spud to date. With 8 to 12x that many prospects left. It's not like their slacking off else either. They replaced 400% of 1Q production so their reserve life is expanding rapidly but they don't get the multiple of an EOG. Why is that? After their numbers I wrote:

      * 1Q Production of 154 Bcfe beat guidance range of 150 to 152.5 Bcfe.

      * Production growth of 14-18% expected for 2007. No change from previous. (but they hinted guidanced will be increased on the conf call)

      * LOE increased a little but not bad. 1Q07 $0.93/Mcfe vs $0.87/Mcfe in 1Q06. Guidance was $0.85 to $0.95 so this is a little high considering they topped the production number. They’re looking for $0.90 to $1.00 going forward. Still,       May 08 08:05 PM
    • Energy Stock Trader: Tuesday Outlook [view article]
      Mark - Long term EOG gets bought but I agree with you it's a great company. Stop the zmansenergybrain.com site some time. Love to hear you ideas / critiques but I don't monitor this site very often. Thanks. May 04 10:49 AM
    • Energy Stock Trader: Tuesday Outlook [view article]
      Sorry for the confusion, I wrote that pretty late and night and was only referring to the quarter, not a judgement on the quality of the companies. APC was definitely the worst of the 3 quarters, the other two you could argue about as to how they've performed since. All three are good companies but very different from one another.

      Sorry for the late reply. If you have any questions/or comments alway feel free to come by the site, we have often an active discussion and new opinions are wanted and welcome.

      As far as EOG vs SWN goes, of course, EOG is the big dog on the block unless you work for APC, DVN, APA or a major! Mark Papa has been a perenial winner and I'm still amazed he can grow that thing that fast given it's size.       May 02 03:11 PM
    • Energy Stock Trader: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
      I'm thinking $55 to $60 oil by 3Q or 4Q - I'm betting on a slow slide towards those levels. If gasoline production ramps up quickly the hit to crude stocks could be supportive of oil near term but I see increasing imports from Opec, - imports #s up as well as anecdotal evidence from the tanker tracker firms and from members of OPEC who are already warnign each other to stay the course on the cuts.

      As for natural gas I'd think it bottoms soon near $7, maybe as low as $6 or 6.50. Signals there are mixed with rising onshore but flat to falling offshore production, up LNG very likely, but a drop in Canadian volumes, and probably another year of increased exports to border hugging generation facilities in Mexico.

      The short term stuff on the site is due to my primarily options trading audience. My apologies if it offends your sensibilities.

      Longer term pieces are kept in a reports section on my site. 90% of the stock specific reports are long recommendations. AXC, END, GST, etc. In fact only one piece there has even the slightest short bent : SJT and that's a yield play were the underlying asset's production is slipping. It was more of a wave off than a short rec.       Apr 19 02:50 PM
    • Energy Stock Trader: Thursday Outlook [view article]
      Like I said before, where's your site so I can learn from the master? You're a paid basher who knocks anything that isn't 24/7 perma bull. You're childish and I could care less what you think of my posts. Why you read thems at all is beyond explanation. Apr 19 12:12 PM
    • Energy Stock Trader: Thursday Outlook [view article]
      mark K - do you ever make it to the actual site? There's lots more data, charts, and comments over there. Love to get your insights on things from time to time if you'll let me know where you're at. Apr 16 02:36 PM
    • Energy Stock Trader: Thursday Outlook [view article]
      MMMarkkk K -

      I understand your point. I quit the sellside and I agree with you to a point a point about anaysts. I'd say 4 out of 5 don't understand the whole process. Standouts who are very smart and have a lot of experience include guys like Fadel Gheit.

      The analysts are mostly bullish right now. The questions on conf calls are either for show for the salesmen and fund managers who also listen or for clarification for getting the model retooled and a first call note out the door.

      These guys (fund managers) get judged on a very short time frame so the analysts largely operate on a short time frame. Also, there's no benefit to a sell rating either for commisions and especially for the bankers so the propensity is for them to be bullish.

      I took some petroleum geology classes but I'm no reserve or reservoir engineer. Never claimed to be. If you want to hear 3D interpretation or get scouting reports you've come to the wrong place.

      However, I can model a company or supply and demand (natural gas) inside out. Spent quite a bit of time on it. When I talk about increasing supply from a country, I'm talking about straight numbers, not fighting off declines with new discoveries. I'm talking about straight up math. If people want to slam me for that fine. But a lot of people don't know if production is slipping or climbing to begin with. Demand, due to mild weather for gas has not increased for the last 10 years. Look at the numbers it's all around the mean but end to end it has not increased. Maybe people would like it if I said consumption instead of demand. Maybe I should say production instead of supply.

      On the other hand, you don't have to be a reservoir engineer to see Lake Washington recreating Swift Energy before it actually did. or the Southwestern in the Fayetteville Shale or etc etc, etc.

      On the reserves, they only seem to matter to stocks in a down market as some basis for calculating NAV. And this only matters for the little ones. Why can't you write things back up if prices rise since you have to write them down if prices fall? Stupid rule.

      In summary, believe me I don't rely on the "former E&P analyst" moniker as some form of credentials. But when I'm told I know nothing about the business, when I'm writing to people who want to buy a stock or an option, well I'm just giving you some basis. If I'd said former roughneck, would you think I was better qualified to pick stocks? Or landman? A lot of people think that if you work somewhere in a trade that you automatically have a step up on someone outside the trade who looks at it from a more top down perspective first, and then looks at the individual companies. The guy on the line at Dell can tell you that more chips are being sold at dell but he misses the whole Apple story.       Apr 16 02:23 PM
    • Energy Stock Trader: Thursday Outlook [view article]
      Greg - what's up with the name calling and 5th grade school yard bashing. Where's your site? I'd love to come learn from the hedge fund master. You seem to have a constant bug up your ass with me and others who don't lust after $100 oil. Who do you work for? Your name comes up as an invalid URL when I click on it.

      Paul and Greg. Don't put statements about peak oil crap in my mouth. I haven't mentioned peak oil theory. And no, I'm not a reservoir engineer. But I was an E&P analyst on Wall Street for many years. So I do know a thing or two about the subject.

      If you guys are the intellectuals you claim to be we could have some logical discourse. You know, I say something and you say you disagree and I give you more supporting my claim or say, Oh I see you're right6. But when you lead off by calling me a moron, a 5th grader etc, it just makes me thinking you';re nothing but a flamer.

      So you think I'm stupid and my writing is tripe. Fine. Then why do you read it? Out of some altruistic need to save the world from the writings of zman? Paul, your name is an invalid URL too. Hmmm.       Apr 16 11:23 AM
    • What's Happening With Crude Oil? [view article]
      Pinellini has attacked just about every writer on this site so I'm honored. My rebuttal:

      1st paragraph: clueless about fundamentals. Please come check out all the fundamental stats and analysis on my site at:

      zmann.wordpress.com/

      2nd para: depletion is a fact of the business but if you're a peak oil guy you're going to have to be patient. Russina will add 2 to2.5x the amount you're citing will be lost from Mexico this year. Brazil is on the rise. Angola, and more. Some benign neglect regions like Mex and Vz will fall for a time but this is management and will be corrected over time. The Saudis just announced they'll be over 12 mm bopd by 2010. The list goes on.

      Para 3: demand destruction...I assume you're talking about crude? There is none. None. Early adopters are exhausted with the Prius and Toyota has got 0% on them. SUV sales recovered after gasoline plunged from $3 to $2.20. Anyway, I've been on the buyside and sell side in energy research but if you can stand to learn a thing or two from a lightweight then do stop by the site. Or don't because pointing fingers at everyone around SeekingAlpha only proves you're too smart to learn anything anyway so why bother.       Feb 10 06:22 PM
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