Steve Zachritz's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/53637/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1465261/comments?source=feed#comment-19344201 19344201 Tue, 28 May 2013 18:06:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1422901/comments?source=feed#comment-19064121 19064121 Tue, 21 May 2013 08:15:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1439521/comments?source=feed#comment-18906921 18906921 Thu, 16 May 2013 13:48:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1439521/comments?source=feed#comment-18903221 18903221 Thu, 16 May 2013 12:43:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1422901/comments?source=feed#comment-18693521 18693521 Fri, 10 May 2013 18:42:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1422901/comments?source=feed#comment-18687211 18687211 Fri, 10 May 2013 15:34:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1422901/comments?source=feed#comment-18674981 18674981 - we do not see high line pressures in the Wattenberg as a problem for us relative to guidance this year
- over $300 mm in liquidity, see Spring redetermination adding modestly to revolver
- 3 Niobrara C wells to be drilled this quarter
- will be at 8 completed wells per month by end of the quarter (as opposed to 6.5 net for the whole 1Q which was covered in the post)
Volumes hit by 500 BOEpd in the quarter due to offsetting completion downtime .. this is included in the guidance for the year
- very pleased with the Codell 90 rate
- Nio C – also holding in strong , consistent with B Bench decline rate
- Long Lateral #2 – incorporated lessons from the first well, put the liner in the full lateral on the second well, successfully did 40 stage frac,
- will drill one more long lateral in 3Q
- 30 total days on the 40 acre well, not ready to call an IP, but very encouraged by this well and on data from industry neighbors.
Cotton Valley program
- 3 of the 5 acre wells at fracced at January, encouraged by pressures, trying to determine if they are finding undepleted sands or underdepleted sands … encouraged so far, 3 more get completed this quarter.
- expansion of gas processing in the Mid Cont completed on time.
LOE – up due to freezing conditions, but LOE will start to decline on a per unit basis.]]> Fri, 10 May 2013 11:18:59 -0400 - we do not see high line pressures in the Wattenberg as a problem for us relative to guidance this year
- over $300 mm in liquidity, see Spring redetermination adding modestly to revolver
- 3 Niobrara C wells to be drilled this quarter
- will be at 8 completed wells per month by end of the quarter (as opposed to 6.5 net for the whole 1Q which was covered in the post)
Volumes hit by 500 BOEpd in the quarter due to offsetting completion downtime .. this is included in the guidance for the year
- very pleased with the Codell 90 rate
- Nio C – also holding in strong , consistent with B Bench decline rate
- Long Lateral #2 – incorporated lessons from the first well, put the liner in the full lateral on the second well, successfully did 40 stage frac,
- will drill one more long lateral in 3Q
- 30 total days on the 40 acre well, not ready to call an IP, but very encouraged by this well and on data from industry neighbors.
Cotton Valley program
- 3 of the 5 acre wells at fracced at January, encouraged by pressures, trying to determine if they are finding undepleted sands or underdepleted sands … encouraged so far, 3 more get completed this quarter.
- expansion of gas processing in the Mid Cont completed on time.
LOE – up due to freezing conditions, but LOE will start to decline on a per unit basis.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1422901/comments?source=feed#comment-18668571 18668571 Fri, 10 May 2013 09:15:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1404311/comments?source=feed#comment-18575441 18575441 http://bit.ly/15GpHuO]]> Wed, 08 May 2013 10:13:52 -0400 http://bit.ly/15GpHuO]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18549981 18549981 Tue, 07 May 2013 15:35:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18539321 18539321 Tue, 07 May 2013 12:15:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18539121 18539121
Also, since you don't have a model, you should know that just using Street numbers, GST is more expensive, not less, on a forward cash flow basis than HK and that's pro forma the Hilltop sale and their new debt issue. I wouldn't put the two names in the same basket for valuation purposes as HK is much oilier than GST (83% for HK with GST moving from the 20%'s to 33%) and then there's the scale issue.

On the HK EBITDA, it has already come down from just over $800 mm prior to the reduction to full year guidance so "comes down" comment is pretty much taken care of. ]]> Tue, 07 May 2013 12:12:22 -0400
Also, since you don't have a model, you should know that just using Street numbers, GST is more expensive, not less, on a forward cash flow basis than HK and that's pro forma the Hilltop sale and their new debt issue. I wouldn't put the two names in the same basket for valuation purposes as HK is much oilier than GST (83% for HK with GST moving from the 20%'s to 33%) and then there's the scale issue.

On the HK EBITDA, it has already come down from just over $800 mm prior to the reduction to full year guidance so "comes down" comment is pretty much taken care of. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1404311/comments?source=feed#comment-18532051 18532051 Tue, 07 May 2013 09:47:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1404311/comments?source=feed#comment-18531971 18531971 Tue, 07 May 2013 09:45:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1404311/comments?source=feed#comment-18512501 18512501 Mon, 06 May 2013 18:41:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18496361 18496361 Mon, 06 May 2013 12:21:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18442031 18442031 Sat, 04 May 2013 12:01:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18421301 18421301 Fri, 03 May 2013 16:47:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18418931 18418931 Fri, 03 May 2013 15:50:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1379381/comments?source=feed#comment-18327361 18327361 Wed, 01 May 2013 15:24:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/731301/comments?source=feed#comment-18326501 18326501 Wed, 01 May 2013 15:11:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1379381/comments?source=feed#comment-18229511 18229511 Mon, 29 Apr 2013 12:52:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281991/comments?source=feed#comment-17494581 17494581
http://bit.ly/14ey4NL]]> Thu, 11 Apr 2013 11:17:44 -0400
http://bit.ly/14ey4NL]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/731301/comments?source=feed#comment-17278521 17278521 Fri, 05 Apr 2013 15:03:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281991/comments?source=feed#comment-17262181 17262181
On BCEI, the name ran into earnings, then there was some profit taking, the energy complex retreated a bit in general, and then Stifel came out with a rather misguided look at Nio B and Codell EUR expectations using CO State data. Look for the company to use part of the time at their investor day next week to debunk Stifel. I've seen analysts try to reinvent the wheel before on reserve reports. Sometimes you can find a crack in one done by a lessor or more aggressive type of firm. BCEI uses Ryder Scott. Stifel is going to lose that argument.

As far as price cycle goes, we lightened in the upper $20's and lower $30's and then it marched on up to the low $40's by the 4Q call. I'm a long term guy which seems to be something of an oddity these days but I' names for 2 to 3 years at a minimum. I'm like an anti-day trader. I use Core positions and then add or subtract Trading positions around the Cores and my trading positions are generally of 6 to 9 month nature. So I guess it depend on what you mean in terms of length of the time cycle. ]]> Fri, 05 Apr 2013 10:01:02 -0400
On BCEI, the name ran into earnings, then there was some profit taking, the energy complex retreated a bit in general, and then Stifel came out with a rather misguided look at Nio B and Codell EUR expectations using CO State data. Look for the company to use part of the time at their investor day next week to debunk Stifel. I've seen analysts try to reinvent the wheel before on reserve reports. Sometimes you can find a crack in one done by a lessor or more aggressive type of firm. BCEI uses Ryder Scott. Stifel is going to lose that argument.

As far as price cycle goes, we lightened in the upper $20's and lower $30's and then it marched on up to the low $40's by the 4Q call. I'm a long term guy which seems to be something of an oddity these days but I' names for 2 to 3 years at a minimum. I'm like an anti-day trader. I use Core positions and then add or subtract Trading positions around the Cores and my trading positions are generally of 6 to 9 month nature. So I guess it depend on what you mean in terms of length of the time cycle. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1316441/comments?source=feed#comment-17180801 17180801 Wed, 03 Apr 2013 15:39:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1316441/comments?source=feed#comment-17176701 17176701 Wed, 03 Apr 2013 14:32:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1316441/comments?source=feed#comment-17175691 17175691
- the company doesn't recall putting out the 400 number either. Maybe its out of Josh's model. Barrington (OEDV's only sell side coverage) has them at 870 BOEpd by year end 2013.

Josh, since you linked your piece to my piece but didn't include your own model let me offer that:

- 4Q volumes were expected to be down sequentially due to the time of well adds and they were in line with our expectations

- 1Q13 volumes that were pre-released in 4Q press release were ahead of me and ahead of Barrington who is the only sellside coverage OEDV has (so far) and they are U.S. only numbers. This was a new record level for them in Logan County.


- the reserves vs market cap comment suggests that 2 to 3 years ago you would not have considered owning a single Bakken name

- also on reserves you left out the note from their reserve engineer stating "Osage’s Nemaha Ridge project is approximately 2% proved developed." It's highly derisked if you look at the wells on the map but they have a long way to go in terms of booking reserves.

- E&P's quite regularly have negative working capital. In their case, having the Apollo debt above the line (in current liabilities) vs below it (in long term debt) is the issue.

- they're a micro cap, of course risky but thanks for the warning, and in our view they're off to a pretty good start in terms of ramping volumes and EBITDA from their US segment. The need to borrow to drill wells is not news and we expect them to shift to a revolving line of credit late this year or early next. The interest costs, while high from a headline standpoint, are easily managed by current cash flow. ]]> Wed, 03 Apr 2013 14:09:35 -0400
- the company doesn't recall putting out the 400 number either. Maybe its out of Josh's model. Barrington (OEDV's only sell side coverage) has them at 870 BOEpd by year end 2013.

Josh, since you linked your piece to my piece but didn't include your own model let me offer that:

- 4Q volumes were expected to be down sequentially due to the time of well adds and they were in line with our expectations

- 1Q13 volumes that were pre-released in 4Q press release were ahead of me and ahead of Barrington who is the only sellside coverage OEDV has (so far) and they are U.S. only numbers. This was a new record level for them in Logan County.


- the reserves vs market cap comment suggests that 2 to 3 years ago you would not have considered owning a single Bakken name

- also on reserves you left out the note from their reserve engineer stating "Osage’s Nemaha Ridge project is approximately 2% proved developed." It's highly derisked if you look at the wells on the map but they have a long way to go in terms of booking reserves.

- E&P's quite regularly have negative working capital. In their case, having the Apollo debt above the line (in current liabilities) vs below it (in long term debt) is the issue.

- they're a micro cap, of course risky but thanks for the warning, and in our view they're off to a pretty good start in terms of ramping volumes and EBITDA from their US segment. The need to borrow to drill wells is not news and we expect them to shift to a revolving line of credit late this year or early next. The interest costs, while high from a headline standpoint, are easily managed by current cash flow. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1316441/comments?source=feed#comment-17145561 17145561 Wed, 03 Apr 2013 00:28:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1221611/comments?source=feed#comment-17114391 17114391
- in line volumes quarter, as expected sequentially down due to timing of well hook ups

- pre announced U.S. volumes for 1Q13 of 241 BOEpd, ahead or our model and Barrington's (their only sell side coverage)

- volumes ahead in part due to faster moving program. 10 gross wells spud first quarter vs expected 6.

- look for them to start talking about drilling as an operator in Pawnee County, OK more soon

- they speak at IPAA in 2 weeks. ]]> Tue, 02 Apr 2013 11:45:45 -0400
- in line volumes quarter, as expected sequentially down due to timing of well hook ups

- pre announced U.S. volumes for 1Q13 of 241 BOEpd, ahead or our model and Barrington's (their only sell side coverage)

- volumes ahead in part due to faster moving program. 10 gross wells spud first quarter vs expected 6.

- look for them to start talking about drilling as an operator in Pawnee County, OK more soon

- they speak at IPAA in 2 weeks. ]]>