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manhattan_trout

manhattan_trout
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  • H-P (HPQ +2.6%) spiked lower, but has since recouped most of its losses, after Jim Chanos declared he's short, and called the IT giant "the ultimate value trap." Chanos is also accusing H-P of "hiding" R&D spending through aggressive M&A activity. H-P has a trailing P/E of less than 5, but also carries a heavy debt load, and EPS is set to decline this year.  [View news story]
    Agree with Chanos. HP is a very dangerous value trap - and a great short to boot.

    When a company decides to blow billions in failed acquisitions (Palm, Autonomy etc) in lieu of true innovation in R&D (and has a consistent history of destroying value this way), you have to look at free cash flow less acquisitions, not just CFFO less capex....

    That's where most investors make their mistake - they assume HPQ has great FCF, when the next massive value-destroying M&A deal is just around the corner...

    Oh, and from a secular perspective, HP's print business (esp its margins) is toast.
    Jul 18 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With the Greek elections behind us and low expectations for the coming G-20 meeting in Mexico, the start of the Fed's two-day meeting is all that's keeping stocks afloat right now, observes Miller Tabak's Peter Boockvar. "Fundamentally, the market belongs much lower," Boockvar says, but everybody thinks the Fed "will pull something else out of its hat.”  [View news story]
    At a cycle low, the P/E is going to be more like 10x, not 16x....jeez
    Jun 18 11:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A weakening global economy on top of a highly fragile credit system "is an explosive cocktail," says Felix Zulauf, sounding apocalyptic in the Barron's mid-year roundtable. Markets are oversold (and Treasurys overbought) for now, especially with authorities about to apply a band-aid, but continued euro disintegration and China weakness "should lead the world into financial and economic chaos."  [View news story]
    Zulauf is one of the best macro-investors out there - he's been long Treasuries for a while and has been bearish on global credit conditions since 2007/8. His decade long track record of 25%+ speaks for itself...

    For all your perma-bulls who keep mocking guys like Zulauf and Faber, why don't you hang your shingle with the likes of Abby Joseph Cohen or Gabelli...? How's that worked out for you for the past decade??

    I'm glad I listened to Zulauf in 2008, and to Rosenberg on going long the 10 and 30 yr T in 2009 - stellar 20%+ annual returns on treasuries and IG/HY bonds since then. My long/short equities have done phenomenally well too with the Bernanke put providing a floor on valuations, but perhaps you shouldn't be so dismissive of great global macro managers like Zulauf....
    Jun 9 02:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's going on with high-yield? HYG is diving on heavy volume even as stocks and the high yield index mosey along, leaving the ETF trading well below intrinsic value. (via)  [View news story]
    it's probably because of Ford rebalancing from high-yield to investment grade....
    Jun 1 03:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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