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Somporn Suksi

Somporn Suksi
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  • Verizon (VZ) states on its Q4 call it activated 6.2M iPhones in Q4, good for 63% of total smartphone activations (up from 46% in Q3, and 56% in the year-ago period). Big Red had previously disclosed it activated 9.8M smartphones in the quarter. CFO Fran Shammo says about half of the iPhone sales involved the iPhone 5 - that remark comes as UBS points to survey data indicating a mix shift towards older and lower-capacity iPhone models. Apple (AAPL) +0.8%. (AT&T smartphone sales[View news story]
    UBS slices estimates today - a day before earnings! - on information from a survey which contradicts exactly what one company selling a lot of the phones (VZ) is saying. Classic misread by the pundit, survey and analyst crowd. Let the real numbers do the talking tomorrow.
    Jan 22, 2013. 09:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sharp (SHCAY.PK) has "nearly halted production" of displays for the regular iPad as demand shifts towards the iPad Mini and Apple (AAPL -0.6%) attempts to manage inventory, Reuters reports. Many analysts have already forecast the Mini, which is thinner and much lighter than the 4th-gen regular iPad, will account for a majority of iPad sales in Q1. Higher Mini sales benefit display suppliers AUO and LPL. Due to lower price tags, Apple's average gross profit on Mini sales appears to be lower than its average gross profit on regular iPad sales. [View news story]
    What it says about the Cornell business school is that one needs to be clear in what one's point is.

    Of course an item with a lower selling price will have a lower gross profit even if its margins are high - but higher than what? Jhonsa wasn't clear in his one-liner in Currents that he was saying that the mini may have higher margins than the larger iPad, but its actual profits will be lower because of the base model's selling price being lower.

    That said, one would say - really? No kidding! That's not anything "news" there. The iPod shuffle probably has a huge margin but since it sells for some lower number (what, $89?) of course a 70% margin on that is lower than 40% on a mini. The point refers to an ongoing discussion about margins in general.

    That is, ultimately the problem with the mini was (or is) two-fold - will its sales cause an overall decline in that never-ending analyst topic of AAPL's total gross margin (which, according to this potential fact, it won't necessarily) or will it cannibalize enough larger iPads such that gross profit itself (and ultimately EPS) will suffer. And that won't be known until we see the mix of iPad sales in total.

    Confusion could have been assuaged by adding "...however, depending on the sales mix between minis and larger iPads, this may affect total iPad segment gross profit and ultimately EPS."
    Jan 19, 2013. 01:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sharp (SHCAY.PK) has "nearly halted production" of displays for the regular iPad as demand shifts towards the iPad Mini and Apple (AAPL -0.6%) attempts to manage inventory, Reuters reports. Many analysts have already forecast the Mini, which is thinner and much lighter than the 4th-gen regular iPad, will account for a majority of iPad sales in Q1. Higher Mini sales benefit display suppliers AUO and LPL. Due to lower price tags, Apple's average gross profit on Mini sales appears to be lower than its average gross profit on regular iPad sales. [View news story]
    Say what??... I have an MBA from Cornell.

    Margin is expressed in a percentage form; profit in numerical, usually currency.

    Gross margin is the gross profit divided by revenue (in this case, on the iPad mini product). How is the "higher margin" not "higher gross profit" if the mathematics are correct (and based on a single-unit volume, not aggregate?)... what margin is being referred to?...
    Jan 18, 2013. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sharp (SHCAY.PK) has "nearly halted production" of displays for the regular iPad as demand shifts towards the iPad Mini and Apple (AAPL -0.6%) attempts to manage inventory, Reuters reports. Many analysts have already forecast the Mini, which is thinner and much lighter than the 4th-gen regular iPad, will account for a majority of iPad sales in Q1. Higher Mini sales benefit display suppliers AUO and LPL. Due to lower price tags, Apple's average gross profit on Mini sales appears to be lower than its average gross profit on regular iPad sales. [View news story]
    How do you know what the total aggregate margins are on the mini? Notwithstanding the speculative article by iSuppli (or its acquirer) there's not even been a quarter of factual reporting with that product in the mix yet, and there's no factual basis that most of those sold were 16GB (with lower margins). Negative bias sensed...
    Jan 18, 2013. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Stocks To Be Careful With Going Into Earnings [View article]
    Citing only Nomura (whose coverage of AAPL is spotty at best, and coming from Japan, which is hardly a bastion of accurate analysts) is carefully selecting the worst news and ignoring the rest. It's easy to cut targets and follow the herd but more difficult to stand by one's original thesis, which Munster, Wu, White, etc. all have done (albeit tweaking numbers here and there). Overall estimates coming down should be a good thing - "overly high expectations" and a "miss" of those expectations hurt the stock in the past; now some (not all) analyst "negativity" leading to more conservative, if perhaps even too low, expectations (which can set up multiple "beats") also hurt the stock? You can't have it both ways.
    Jan 17, 2013. 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the bad news fully baked in? Apple (AAPL +3.6%), which closed yesterday trading around 7.4x FY13E EPS (exc. cash), has rallied back above $500 in spite of Pac Crest's downgrade. The company has received favorable notes today as well: Cowen says its checks lead it to believe Apple's smartphone share rose to ~23.5% in calendar Q4 from 16.4% in Q3. Some suppliers are also up: CRUS +4.5%. OVTI +1.4%. Sterne Agee is defending Skyworks (SWKS +3.5%) after meeting with its CFO. [View news story]
    $17+ EPS and 54mil iPhones would be a massive beat - that's quite optimistic. Stock would soar on that perhaps. Better stick with $15-range EPS at best, given the environment.
    Jan 17, 2013. 05:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the bad news fully baked in? Apple (AAPL +3.6%), which closed yesterday trading around 7.4x FY13E EPS (exc. cash), has rallied back above $500 in spite of Pac Crest's downgrade. The company has received favorable notes today as well: Cowen says its checks lead it to believe Apple's smartphone share rose to ~23.5% in calendar Q4 from 16.4% in Q3. Some suppliers are also up: CRUS +4.5%. OVTI +1.4%. Sterne Agee is defending Skyworks (SWKS +3.5%) after meeting with its CFO. [View news story]
    When AAPL falls below $500 it "tumbles below 500" but then when it rallies by well over 4% or $20 in hours it only "rallies" and doesn't "rocket", or "shoot", or "power higher" or another active, graphically descriptive verb.

    It's quite easy to see that SA's editorial comments on "Currents" have an editorial slant against AAPL. Jhonsa is clearly not a fan. Shame on such non-objectivity "on cue" whenever any good news or movement about the stock emerges. Am I wrong? Find me some text that contradicts what I say.
    Jan 17, 2013. 02:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pac Crest joins the rush, cutting Apple (AAPL) to Sector Perform with fair value of $440-$550, noting high-end market saturation and waning demand for incremental hardware innovation. Piper's Gene Munster holds the line, reiterating his Buy and a $875 target. Shares +1.4% premarket. [View news story]
    Where's Pac Crest based, SF? They're probably all stoned. "Dude... it's JANUARY 16, not December!!.. what are you doing, changing ratings now?.... you forgot to change the calendar duuuuude!.... ok now where's the next batch of schwag?..." Actually I see their HQ is in Portland OR - even better... all organic stuff I assume!...
    Jan 16, 2013. 01:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pac Crest joins the rush, cutting Apple (AAPL) to Sector Perform with fair value of $440-$550, noting high-end market saturation and waning demand for incremental hardware innovation. Piper's Gene Munster holds the line, reiterating his Buy and a $875 target. Shares +1.4% premarket. [View news story]
    If I were richbar I'd be saying to you, "oh now, you said there 'is', when it should be there 'are', so I place no credibility in your posts..." etc. ;)

    However, it is me, and I think technicals are stargazing. Yes, market sentiment and behavioral finance are extremely important in investing, and trends with that in mind cannot be ignored, but I don't believe that these cup-and-handle, head-and-shoulder, triangle-this, cross-that, etc. are anything other than an attempt to somehow find "patterns" in what is more or less random movement - and the confirmation bias, and selective information, dismissing of the anomalies, etc. are classic cognitive distortions that the chartists display. Whatever - hey, they gotta make a buck too I guess.
    Jan 16, 2013. 01:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pac Crest joins the rush, cutting Apple (AAPL) to Sector Perform with fair value of $440-$550, noting high-end market saturation and waning demand for incremental hardware innovation. Piper's Gene Munster holds the line, reiterating his Buy and a $875 target. Shares +1.4% premarket. [View news story]
    Ooh, the Theory. And my horoscope for today said I'd have lots of energy since the moon is in Aries. Technical analysis is stargazing at best - confirmation bias on anything that fits the 'pattern', and ignoring or dismissing anything that doesn't.
    Jan 16, 2013. 10:17 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On cue, Apple's (AAPL -2.8%) sell-side fans are defending it following reports of iPhone component order cuts due to weaker-than-expected demand. UBS, one of the first to report of production cuts, says it detects no change to iPhone orders since December, though it worries shares could be pressured near-term. Wells Fargo notes Apple's 65M-unit iPhone 5 display order (per The Nikkei) was "an unrealistic number to begin with." JPMorgan says it only forecast 25M calendar Q1 iPhone 5 builds regardless. Notable Calls: "This sure feels like capitulation, doesn't it?" [View news story]
    The "on cue" is a somewhat snide and cheeky way of showing SA's bias (actually Jhonsa's bias) against pro-AAPL news. The "on cue" adds nothing journalistically and mocks the analysts in a soft but clear way. Shameful but I guess that's why many (like me) are defecting.
    Jan 16, 2013. 05:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing Apple's Guidance To Actual Results [View article]
    Are you an English teacher? You don't even know if the person is a native speaker, and yet you're correcting grammar and punctuation?

    Maybe he was typing on a mobile device which didn't make the proper punctuation corrections (or made incorrect ones) - something I experience regularly.

    So many SA readers saw this comment and said, "man, that guy really is an a....." - I was one of them and I don't visit here anymore. I came back just to call you out on this post. Shame on you!
    Jan 16, 2013. 05:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
    The sage speaks. Where is your model to back up this thesis? Have you made any SA contributions? Where's your article - putting yourself on the line with facts to back up your thesis - oh, right, you don't do that... you only troll AAPL easily with comments. Disclose: are you short? Are you long another competitor name?

    By the way, since you're so bent on correcting other people's grammar and punctuation, it's an iPhone 5 (with a space, and a capital P).
    Jan 16, 2013. 05:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
    It's not Cramer, it's just a guy who's stolen that identity (with no screening by SA) and passes his comments off as "official". More deliberate misinformation and fraud. Do you want to invest/trade based on all this?
    Jan 14, 2013. 04:24 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
    See this? This is why I'm not on SA anymore. This guy is not Jim Cramer nor does he have anything to do with CNBC, yet he steals this identity and passes himself off as the guy (to anyone not too suspicious). It is right for that to be permitted by SA? Way too much fraud, own book-talking, deliberate misinformation, personal hating and other shenanigans on SA - therefore, that's it for me.
    Jan 14, 2013. 04:21 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
125 Comments
254 Likes