basehitz

20 Comments

    • ON: Mon Oct 6th 14:01 PM
      Commented on:
      John Hussman: Depression Fear Mongering 'Ridiculous'
      Thank you. Finally a voice of reason amidst a sea of chaos. This morning I bought early cyclical recovery stocks in the midst of the panic. Happy camper.
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    • ON: Sun Oct 5th 15:31 PM
      Commented on:
      36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull
      Bill,
      Thank you for your thoughtful post. I invested through the last bear market. Today, I can find prices of solid companies at the last bear trough, in spite of improved aspects. For example, last week bought JBL near $9. They just reported earnings, positive cc, and stock was bid up to $12 premarket. In spite of earnings being out, it was still trashed. Finding value is easy. Staying patient is tough.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Sep 7th 10:24 AM
      Commented on:
      How Did Major Retailers Do in August?
      Your work is instructive. Several articles about collective debt level have me very concerned:

      1) From Seeking Alpha
      The Great Consumer Crash of 2009
      by: James Quinn posted on: August 14, 2008

      2) From Dr. Marc Faber Market Comment: October 9, 2005
      gloomboomdoom.com
      (Note here that the ONLY time in history when our debt level even approached today is just before the Great Depression. Not a prediction, just an editorial note. But today our debt level is worse. )

      3) from Barrons Feb 11, 2008
      "This Credit Crisis Has a Long Way to Run"
      Interview with Jeremy Grantham, Chief Investment Strategist, GMO
      Barron’s By SANDRA WARD

      The above is a lot of data to take in. The picture, due to grossly excessive credit expansion, is bleak.

      I disagree with your suggestion that consumers will wise up. Some will for sure. But most won't until they are forced. And they will be due to credit restrictions now becoming much tougher. The banks will cut them off.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Sep 7th 09:02 AM
      Commented on:
      The Two-Ton Wall Street Conflict of Interest Few Dare To Talk About
      Thanks for voicing a much needed, but seldom heard comment from the talking heads. And let me add, when you see Maria Bartiromo interview Bill Fleckenstein on closing bell after the market has had a particular bad stretch and tough day, and especially if she looks particularly depressed, and then CNBC has AH the hand-holding panel of Dr. Phil's, it's time to get that watch list ready to go.

      As far as your political comments, the policies each advocate draw a clear distinction. Obama is no Clinton. While I disagree with Clinton on social issues, he backed free trade, welfare reform, and other pro-growth policies. And most importantly, he was offset by a Republican congress led by Gingrich. Obama's campaign points are not consistent with Clinton in many regards, and Congress is moving hard left. McCain is no Bush. The biggest difference is spending restraint. We cannot afford the big govt programs advocated by standard liberal policy. But I'm afraid, short of a mircale, that's what we're gonna get.
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    • ON: Wed Sep 3rd 14:03 PM
      Commented on:
      The Rally was the Real Deal - Cramer's Mad Money (9/2/08)
      If crammer (no typo) liked GLW under $20, he'll really like it now (<$18). I'm always amazed, when I can stomach watching his circus, how the AH ticker shows picks he mentioned (like 30 seconds ago) being bought aggressively. Evidently, some lemmings do whatever he says. . . immediately. They deserve each other.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Sep 1st 09:11 AM
      Commented on:
      A Compelling Energy Ratio
      Your technical analysis makes sense. The previous poster noting storage is bearish, but everyone knows that already. The forecast I've heard for a cooler winter is bullish. The economy/demand is bearish. Politics are bullish (international tensions and US likely Dem win in Nov). . . Opposing arguments are both strong. Perhaps that is the reason for the volitility. And that is exactly what I'm playing. So the volume spike/selloff I bought aggressively but sold the previous spike > 40. Tomorrow looks like another drop, will add. If we get a huge drop like previous poster talked about (I've heard other energy traders warn of the early 90's), good to keep some powder dry. Opportunity to trade almost daily. But I agree the long term is bullish so that is the bias.

      View article »
    • ON: Sat Aug 30th 18:46 PM
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: Friday Outlook
      Barack was impressive. As he was rattling off all the things the govt will give us, I thought wouldn't that be nice. Next I thought, who's gonna pay for all this? IBD and others have analyzed estimated costs and the savings he claims will pay for this, well no one else (who is credible) thinks it's even close. He is a great speaker. A little more reality mixed in would also be nice.

      Phil, do you ever post without political spin?
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Aug 28th 18:22 PM
      Commented on:
      Durable Orders Data: What Recession?
      Numbers on the surface are misleading. Drilling down shows that understating inflation overstates growth. Credit for analysis goes to Barry Ritholtz for showing the misrepresentation. (his blog: bigpicture.typepad.com...

      Key excerpt:
      "Part of the reason the GDP number looked so good was because the GDP price index for the second quarter was marked at just 1.2. In other words, BEA subtracted from nominal GDP 1.2% in order to produce their version of "real" (inflation-adjusted) GDP."

      Goldman Sachs analyst notes:
      "Durable goods orders beat expectations with a 1.3% month-on-month increase in July. But the apparent strength is due to higher prices, not stronger activity. In fact, deflating orders by the producer price index for durable manufactured goods shows a 9.4% year-on-year drop in real orders, the worst since early 2002.
      "Even if we adjust for the unfavorable year-on-year comparisons that partly explain this plunge, the recent data look surprisingly similar to those seen in the runup to the 2001 recession."

      Maybe not so good report after all.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Jul 4th 10:58 AM
      Commented on:
      U.S. Markets: Just How Oversold Are We?
      Good piece. The pessimism is so dominant it's easy to lose objectivity. Along the same lines, Investors Intelligence this week had bears 44.7 to bulls 31.9. I've only seen it that pessimistic one other time since 2000. I also bought this week. But it's only a trade IMO.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Jun 22nd 09:28 AM
      Commented on:
      Volatility Going Nowhere
      Comparing current VIX and SPX behavior just before the January plunge, the setups are similar. If it repeats, a few days of selling could both take out the January lows and quickly ramp the VIX into the 30s again. That's the trade I'm looking for.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Jun 16th 08:38 AM
      Commented on:
      Market Preparing for a Double-Dip Recession
      Well thought out piece. Admitedly conflicting signals exist. But I suspect the bears will score real gains this year. There was an earlier article about current record profit margins (8.5%) for composite corporate profits vs the 50-year average of about 6.5%. Reversion to the mean would cut 25% off aggregate earnings. And it seems the market has not reflected higher cost of capital coming with a likely Democratic sweep in Nov.

      Nevertheless, this volatile market creates trading opportunities frequently for aggressive trading. Investors. . . well that's another story.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Jun 6th 12:07 PM
      Commented on:
      Thursday Was a Huge Day for This Market
      I've learned the hard way not to overstate my position, especially after the market had a huge up day. And the next day it gives it all back. Humility lessons are tough. XLF is a very complicated problem. Some really smart people are on opposite sides of the argument. So what's the trader to do?

      Well this is what this trader did. The day before the huge rally, I bought a heavy MSFT in the 27s. Sold it on the pop and shorted the market via QID SDS and SCC. That was going into the close. Today's jobs report was weak and all the gains were given back so I liquidated the short position. Point is, I'm not sure where the big picture is going so I try for the high percentage trades.

      Prevoius poster notes Jim Rogers who I know is short a bunch of banks. Very smart guy. I don't like betting against very smart guys. But with XLF getting killed today, I might take a trade. It's only a trade. Today, everything is only a trade. Nobody really knows.

      View article »
    • ON: Fri Mar 14th 09:06 AM
      Commented on:
      Friday Outlook: Eyes on the Inflation Report
      I suspect the precise timing of the releases from this questionable entity, the Fed, and others, is all about preventing stock market indices from violating widely recognized key levels. THis looks like a coordinated attempt at market manipulation. E.g., look at what the Fed did the hour before market opened and the SPX level at that point. So instead of triggering the support break and selloff, to create a legitimate trading opportunity, the market bolted 400 pts higher. WHen they sobered up, it didn't take 2 days to almost give all that back and now these miscreants (S&P) does another stick save. I wonder what these people fear that they are willing to sell what little credibility they have left in order to prevent market forces from playing out.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Mar 9th 10:12 AM
      Commented on:
      The John McCain Market Selloff
      Barry, as usual great stuff. Sober assessment of reality is often lacking in the biased media and bubbleTV (aka CNBC). And I view this distortion by vendors of this junk, as well as it's listerners who often seem to prefer being lied to than objectively evaluating reality, are all in for a very rude awakening. BTW, I noticed you've not been on Kudlow's show for quite some time. His show needs input to balance the chronic cheerleaders there.

      As far as McCain, his chances are nil. I conclude the recession will be declared a fact after Q1 and Q2 data are in. So the recession pronouncement should be just before the fall election. History says the White House incumbant party gets defeated under that scenario. And even if not, the liberal media will so distort reality for a gullible news consumer against McCain that a minority of listeners will actually know what's going on, and the ramifications of the quasi-socialist agenda both Democratic candidates advocate.

      You think things are tough now, wait til we blindfold ourselves against a ruthless terrorist agressor (aka, the liberal agenda) and implement socialism domestically. We are in deep trouble, and most of our problems will be self-imflicted.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Mar 7th 09:16 AM
      Commented on:
      Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      You've been skeptical for some time in contrast to the market cheerleaders who seem to get most of the air time. And another key difference; your arguments are backed by extensive objective data. Seems vindications is near. Friday's jobs report should seal the deal on your skepticism of a market overdue for a correction. Thank you for all your effort.
      View article »
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