Head and Shoulders Action Almost Perfect [View article]
Economic data, and in particular the jobs data this week is my primary focus. If another bad report comes out (adjusting for B/D manipulation and other tricks), this could break down. If it passes that test, earnings/warning season starts shortly thereafter. Seems too much to ask for given the excessive debt levels and dependency on the printing press to solve our problems.
And being a skeptic, I am greatly encouraged in my position because Dennis Kneale declared the recession is over. www.cnbc.com/id/158402...
I nominate him for head buffoon. Given the competition at Cheerleading Central, that distinction is not easy to earn.
Richard, Welcome to SA! I recall some remarkably accurate forecasts from you as we entered the cliff diving event last fall. Very nice work! I look forward to your future posts.
Continued Bearish News for Natural Gas [View article]
I was surprised to see BHI rig count is now about where it was in early May in spite of the continuing build of NG storage. It appears, based on all the "promotional" posts on NG in recent weeks, that either this game changer has been difficult to grasp for many, or Da Boyz entered this trade (judging by the enormous volume), realized they might be screwed and sent all their talking heads out to sell their now overpriced shares to retailers.
If recent lows are taken out on aggressive volume (i.e., Da Boyz throw in the towel), that could produce a very attractive entry point.
I like this idea of playing a real estate recovery, while leaving it optional the geographically fixed location. Will add to the research in-basket. Thank you John for your frequent informative posts.
How the Impending Food Shortage Will Impact Agriculture Stocks [View article]
Good article. I have been building a position in DBA as it corrects. Today it broke th 200d ma, so further selling should be triggered.
Jim Rogers interview: 6/5/09 on CNBC www.cnbc.com/id/31106964 Key points: currency crisis imminent, not shorting anything cause of money printing, but long commodities either due to recovery or inflation. Either way, commodity fundamentals are improving. Wildly bullish on commodities. Prefers silver to gold, prefers agriculture to either. Maybe some natural gas.
(My take on NG: persistent supply/demand imbalance, plus final hurrah for USD as safe haven triggering short term oil correction , may produce a final washout in NG. Even more attractive are international oil drillers and commodity itself.)
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
On 6/25, CNBC's Dennis Kneale declared "Recession Is Over". Given his trach record, be very afraid. www.cnbc.com/id/158402...
As I have maintained for some time, what most bothers me about CNBC in USA (Europe and Asia CNBC have useful interviews often) is not only their chronic cheerleading, but their being loudest when we should be most cautious. They only time they're not bullish, is when you should be (e.g., near bottoms in 2002 and 2009).
Savings Rates Surge: Who Is Going to Consume? [View article]
Who's going to consume you ask. Apparently, Bazooka Ben. The same guy who expects to jam interest rates artificiially low. However, just as the bond market has other ideas, it seems the consumer is also smarter than our federal government. I have been saying for some time now that to revert back to our old savings of decades past and living within our means will in time repair our collective balance sheets is a real cure for what our ails us.
Memo to Bazooka Ben. . . watch us sheeple. We get it. When will you?
Da Boyz have been working overtime to push this trade on the sheeple. Per Jim Rogers, focus on supply and demand. For NG, the current picture is awful. www.eia.doe.gov/oil_ga...
And some think the future picture is also bad as producers need the cash and are having a hard time slowing their production after years of frantic drilling as described in this 5/21/09 article "No End in Sight to the Natural Gas Glut" blogs.wsj.com/environm...
The often cited oil/gas ratio may be resolved by oil decline rather than NG increase. If the market corrects (my bet), USD should rally as a short term hideout. This would knock commodities down. But I am watching for a long play here, just not yet.
Investors Looking for KB Homes Shares to Short [View article]
I love what passes for analysis.
Per AP: KB Home lost $78.4 million, or $1.03 a share, for the three months ended May 31. (i.e., there are no profits)
CEO Jeffrey Mezger remained cautious, saying only that "We are beginning to see signs that some negative housing market trends may be moderating at both the local and national levels." (i.e., 2nd derivative stuff - less bad)
While the company's new home orders, which totaled 2,910 in the period, were up from the beginning of the year, they were 31 percent lower than the second quarter last year. (spring/summer is supposed to be better than winter, especially last winter)
Builders continue to record huge losses and soft sales, but they've been more optimistic in recent weeks as low interest rates, the federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers and bargain prices have helped to fuel sales. (i.e., as long as the govt continues to subsidize the industry with handouts and dollar debasement . . . and your grandchildren don't mind paying for it. . . )
I also am watching the homebuilders, but after the next market selloff.
The Fourth Branch of the U.S. Government: Goldman Sachs? [View article]
I share the outrage of the author and echo many of the comments. If I were to post all the articles written by major publications highlighting the questionable practices of Government Sachs, it would be the longest post I ever made. The collective commentary of this critique strongly suggests actions were inappropriate, possibly legally actionable. Here's just a small sampling:
The last one highlighting backdoor payout to GS and others at full value of bad bets suggests a conflict of interest in that Paulson, former CEO of GS, no doubt has substantial personal financial interest in GS well-being. Yet he sees fit in his role as treasury to hand them billions of tax payer funds, which were never paid back and won’t be. But given the revolving door between govt and WS, especially GS, I expect no such action from the bought politicians who perpetrated what appears to be a multi-trillion $ fraud against the American taxpayers to protect the privileged few.
Gold Downgraded to Underweight - National Bank Financial [View article]
I would reconnect the dots in the following sequence: 1) "improvements in economic data " - transitory. Once Q2 window dressing is done and goosing the market in support of this contrivance is over, earnings/warning season will be upon us again. If they don't deliver recovery, which many (perhaps most) analysts are assuming, watch out below. 2) "will greatly reduce the need for a haven" - if 1) is correct, USD and Treasuries may again be the preferred place to hide. Intraday, that is frequently the pattern. Short term, it is a safe place to hide. Long term. . . well, just ask Bazooka Ben how much money he plans to create this Q. 3) "Given the very strong negative correlation between bullion and the U.S. dollar since 2002" - agreed. And assuming a market correction induces a dollar rally, all commodities will correct. 4) "History shows that late cyclicals such as energy and materials will do better in the first phase of expansion" - agrreed. So wait for USD rally to provide better entry points to commodities and buy a basket plus companies who drill/mine/grow the stuff. 5) "Economic growth is around the corner " - eventually they're gonna be right. 6) "cash position gets cut from 10% to zero" - almost painful to think about it. Zero cash reserves is rarely appropriate. But AFTER a 40% rally, it's just plain dumb.
I am mostly cash watching a range of commodities, especially grains, softs and silver, plus international oil drillers (some now) and oil on a pullback.
Marc Faber on Hyperinflation in the U.S. [View article]
I would expect this from Marc. I'm surprised CNBC (especially Ms Pom Poms) would air it.
Oct 9, 2005 Marc wrote a paper "Why the Fed has no other Alternative but to print Money". He predicted much of what just happened (and is still happening) when only a few saw it coming. To dismiss him now because this is unpleasant is risky. But there are investment ideas. He's big on commodities. He, Jim Rogers and others have refocused my research into commodities and those companies who produce it.
What would be perfect for me is a market selloff with traders hiding in USD and treasuries (like last year), driving energy prices down. Then, load up on energy, especially the international drillers, but not US-based NG plays except at much lower prices.
Land Driller Sector Outlook: It's All About the Natural Gas [View article]
Good summary. I've traded this often. Sitting out for now. Storage continues to build even while rig count has bottomed for now. What happens if storage is maxed out before the winter draw season?
I considered writing out-of-the-money puts today given the premium due to elevated volatility of UNG. But it seems very possible we'll take out the previous lows. If that happens now that the WS frat boys piled in ballooning the size of the fund, the selloff should be impressive and generate a durable floor to prices.
John Hussman: Long-Horizon Risk Aversion Creates Headwinds [View article]
Q end window dressing is almost over. Notice the recent wave of upgrades? Not to imply that the WS frat boys are self-serving of course. I will be keeping a very close eye on early July with a new earnings/warning season upon, and no immediate motivation to paint the tape.
We have never been this far in debt. Never! I'd encourage all to read the entire article, but for now, at least scroll down to see the chart, 3rd from the bottom entitled "US Total Debt to GDP". seekingalpha.com/artic...
Head and Shoulders Action Almost Perfect [View article]
And being a skeptic, I am greatly encouraged in my position because Dennis Kneale declared the recession is over.
www.cnbc.com/id/158402...
I nominate him for head buffoon. Given the competition at Cheerleading Central, that distinction is not easy to earn.
Mid-Year Market Analysis: Treasuries, Gold, Crude, Equities [View article]
Welcome to SA! I recall some remarkably accurate forecasts from you as we entered the cliff diving event last fall. Very nice work! I look forward to your future posts.
Continued Bearish News for Natural Gas [View article]
If recent lows are taken out on aggressive volume (i.e., Da Boyz throw in the towel), that could produce a very attractive entry point.
Thanks for the post.
Housing Exchange Traded Trusts Debut Today [View article]
How the Impending Food Shortage Will Impact Agriculture Stocks [View article]
Jim Rogers interview: 6/5/09 on CNBC
www.cnbc.com/id/31106964
Key points: currency crisis imminent, not shorting anything cause of money printing, but long commodities either due to recovery or inflation. Either way, commodity fundamentals are improving. Wildly bullish on commodities. Prefers silver to gold, prefers agriculture to either. Maybe some natural gas.
(My take on NG: persistent supply/demand imbalance, plus final hurrah for USD as safe haven triggering short term oil correction , may produce a final washout in NG. Even more attractive are international oil drillers and commodity itself.)
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Given his trach record, be very afraid.
www.cnbc.com/id/158402...
As I have maintained for some time, what most bothers me about CNBC in USA (Europe and Asia CNBC have useful interviews often) is not only their chronic cheerleading, but their being loudest when we should be most cautious. They only time they're not bullish, is when you should be (e.g., near bottoms in 2002 and 2009).
Savings Rates Surge: Who Is Going to Consume? [View article]
Memo to Bazooka Ben. . . watch us sheeple. We get it. When will you?
The Fall in Natural Gas Is Over [View article]
blogs.wsj.com/environm.../
The Fall in Natural Gas Is Over [View article]
www.eia.doe.gov/oil_ga...
And some think the future picture is also bad as producers need the cash and are having a hard time slowing their production after years of frantic drilling as described in this 5/21/09 article "No End in Sight to the Natural Gas Glut"
blogs.wsj.com/environm...
The often cited oil/gas ratio may be resolved by oil decline rather than NG increase. If the market corrects (my bet), USD should rally as a short term hideout. This would knock commodities down. But I am watching for a long play here, just not yet.
Investors Looking for KB Homes Shares to Short [View article]
Per AP:
KB Home lost $78.4 million, or $1.03 a share, for the three months ended May 31. (i.e., there are no profits)
CEO Jeffrey Mezger remained cautious, saying only that "We are beginning to see signs that some negative housing market trends may be moderating at both the local and national levels." (i.e., 2nd derivative stuff - less bad)
While the company's new home orders, which totaled 2,910 in the period, were up from the beginning of the year, they were 31 percent lower than the second quarter last year. (spring/summer is supposed to be better than winter, especially last winter)
Builders continue to record huge losses and soft sales, but they've been more optimistic in recent weeks as low interest rates, the federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers and bargain prices have helped to fuel sales. (i.e., as long as the govt continues to subsidize the industry with handouts and dollar debasement . . . and your grandchildren don't mind paying for it. . . )
I also am watching the homebuilders, but after the next market selloff.
The Fourth Branch of the U.S. Government: Goldman Sachs? [View article]
www.marketwatch.com/ne...
www.nypost.com/seven/0...
www.bloomberg.com/apps...
The last one highlighting backdoor payout to GS and others at full value of bad bets suggests a conflict of interest in that Paulson, former CEO of GS, no doubt has substantial personal financial interest in GS well-being. Yet he sees fit in his role as treasury to hand them billions of tax payer funds, which were never paid back and won’t be. But given the revolving door between govt and WS, especially GS, I expect no such action from the bought politicians who perpetrated what appears to be a multi-trillion $ fraud against the American taxpayers to protect the privileged few.
Gold Downgraded to Underweight - National Bank Financial [View article]
1) "improvements in economic data " - transitory. Once Q2 window dressing is done and goosing the market in support of this contrivance is over, earnings/warning season will be upon us again. If they don't deliver recovery, which many (perhaps most) analysts are assuming, watch out below.
2) "will greatly reduce the need for a haven" - if 1) is correct, USD and Treasuries may again be the preferred place to hide. Intraday, that is frequently the pattern. Short term, it is a safe place to hide. Long term. . . well, just ask Bazooka Ben how much money he plans to create this Q.
3) "Given the very strong negative correlation between bullion and the U.S. dollar since 2002" - agreed. And assuming a market correction induces a dollar rally, all commodities will correct.
4) "History shows that late cyclicals such as energy and materials will do better in the first phase of expansion" - agrreed. So wait for USD rally to provide better entry points to commodities and buy a basket plus companies who drill/mine/grow the stuff.
5) "Economic growth is around the corner " - eventually they're gonna be right.
6) "cash position gets cut from 10% to zero" - almost painful to think about it. Zero cash reserves is rarely appropriate. But AFTER a 40% rally, it's just plain dumb.
I am mostly cash watching a range of commodities, especially grains, softs and silver, plus international oil drillers (some now) and oil on a pullback.
Marc Faber on Hyperinflation in the U.S. [View article]
Oct 9, 2005 Marc wrote a paper "Why the Fed has no other Alternative but to print Money". He predicted much of what just happened (and is still happening) when only a few saw it coming. To dismiss him now because this is unpleasant is risky. But there are investment ideas. He's big on commodities. He, Jim Rogers and others have refocused my research into commodities and those companies who produce it.
What would be perfect for me is a market selloff with traders hiding in USD and treasuries (like last year), driving energy prices down. Then, load up on energy, especially the international drillers, but not US-based NG plays except at much lower prices.
Land Driller Sector Outlook: It's All About the Natural Gas [View article]
I considered writing out-of-the-money puts today given the premium due to elevated volatility of UNG. But it seems very possible we'll take out the previous lows. If that happens now that the WS frat boys piled in ballooning the size of the fund, the selloff should be impressive and generate a durable floor to prices.
I'll let someone else play this casino for now.
John Hussman: Long-Horizon Risk Aversion Creates Headwinds [View article]
We have never been this far in debt. Never!
I'd encourage all to read the entire article, but for now, at least scroll down to see the chart, 3rd from the bottom entitled "US Total Debt to GDP".
seekingalpha.com/artic...
Be careful.