basehitz

Semi Shortage: Why I'm Waiting It Out

I've read a number of your posts. Diversity of opinion uncovers unexpected avenues to explore. However, in your case, it seems every post of yours is bullish. CNBC needs people like you. BTW, I discontinued watching almost all of CNBC programming.

Beware the Semiconductor Rally - Barron's

Spring 2002 IBD published an article on apparent chip recovery cycle underway based on an uptick in orders. Very similar to what we have now. In 2002, we were coming off an overbuilt industry. Not the case today. But today we have a deby overhead > 350% GDP. It has never been that high. Never. The only time it was close was . . . 1929. Since 2002, we've added nearly 100% GDP in debt. Lack of overbuild this time helps, but the already overburdened debt dampens real recovery. And Washington policies could trump either of these 2 factors, which could help or hurt. Point is, we are in unchartered territory both in terms of debt level and policy actions. Where this goes is not knowable. But in 2002 many bought the head fake of inventory restocking. I was one. Chips had a lot of fall before it was over. No one believed it back then either.

Tech Bellwether Earnings Scorecard Update

I also watch in amazing given the continued deterioration in fundamentals contrasting the continued strength in charts. I bought tech last fall, esp chips, expecting a comparable bottom (in fundamentals) near Oct 2002. The thinking was the tech overbuild last time seemed to be avoided this time, yet the financial wreckage would offset. It wasn't possible to tell which would be stronger. And INTC last fall initially indicated moderate decline (10/15/08 - Intel's Surprisingly Sunny Earnings Report). Then the crap hit the fan and fundamentals deteriorated dramatically vs previous troughs. Yet the stocks hold up. I sold all tech near year end (too early) but I'm not buying cause the charts are going up, while fundamentals indicate the opposite.