basehitz

A Look at Buckle: Fundamentals Don't Matter Anymore

I appreciate your earlier bold calls in the face of the chronic cheerleading from bubleTV (aka CNBC) back then. In the bounce last summer, many were pounding the table specifically to buy retail AFTER many had huge runs. I had shorted retail but, faced with the constant drumbeat of cheerleading, it didn't seem reasonable I was one of the few that called it right. So I took a small trade. I am really pissed. That was a home run.

That you were ahead of this is the most important. In contrast, many others do rear view analysis extrapolating the past into the future ad infinitum.

Yesterday I sold a ton of stocks into the 4 day rally. So now with the coffers restored, I'm retooling my strategy and will be looking at everything as a trade.

Thanks for your post.

How Did Major Retailers Do in August?

Your work is instructive. Several articles about collective debt level have me very concerned:

1) From Seeking Alpha
The Great Consumer Crash of 2009
by: James Quinn posted on: August 14, 2008

2) From Dr. Marc Faber Market Comment: October 9, 2005
gloomboomdoom.com
(Note here that the ONLY time in history when our debt level even approached today is just before the Great Depression. Not a prediction, just an editorial note. But today our debt level is worse. )

3) from Barrons Feb 11, 2008
"This Credit Crisis Has a Long Way to Run"
Interview with Jeremy Grantham, Chief Investment Strategist, GMO
Barron’s By SANDRA WARD

The above is a lot of data to take in. The picture, due to grossly excessive credit expansion, is bleak.

I disagree with your suggestion that consumers will wise up. Some will for sure. But most won't until they are forced. And they will be due to credit restrictions now becoming much tougher. The banks will cut them off.