Richie's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/53787/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/157509-tbf-investors-now-have-a-dozen-inverse-bond-choices?source=feed#comment-798432 798432
Is there anyone out there that offers an ETF that directly tracks the inverse of the 20+ year Treasury? Even 2X leverage would be adequate to generate good gains if it is purchased at the right time and....for the long term.]]> Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:30:07 -0500
Is there anyone out there that offers an ETF that directly tracks the inverse of the 20+ year Treasury? Even 2X leverage would be adequate to generate good gains if it is purchased at the right time and....for the long term.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/62847-inflation-expectations-for-the-next-10-years?source=feed#comment-114488 114488 Mon, 04 Feb 2008 15:14:37 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59367-analysts-see-dow-rising-sharply-in-2008?source=feed#comment-108978 108978 Tue, 08 Jan 2008 13:25:36 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/56886-oil-gas-industry-leaders-investment-opportunities?source=feed#comment-104915 104915 Tue, 11 Dec 2007 16:10:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/53091-adding-to-shengdatech?source=feed#comment-101215 101215 Wed, 07 Nov 2007 14:18:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/52314-interpreting-the-fed-s-neutral-bias-short-big-oil-buy-defensive-staples?source=feed#comment-100553 100553
What does it mean to the price of oil when the XOMs and CVXs of the world just cannot produce as much oil as we are consuming? Several times now, the anticipated build just evaporated.

If housing woes spread (and you aren't smart enough to say unequivocally that that cannot happen) isn't it almost certain we will need more funds cuts?

I think the FED wanted to say that in December, if it is a close call, they MAY NOT cut. This was said to keep froth levels in the market down in the event that they don't see a need to cut. ie., They don't want to see a 500+ point down day, so they are giving investors fair warning. But let's face it, this FED (as is true of most), is truly deficient in its projections. They have no more idea of how the economy will look in six weeks than you or I. So any projection they make really has no merit. In fact, if things are strong enough so that a reduction in rates is unnecessary, next month, why go into defensive mode? Emerging economies will continue to prosper and oils and minerals and all commodities will continue to command big prices --- no? ]]> Thu, 01 Nov 2007 13:08:48 -0400
What does it mean to the price of oil when the XOMs and CVXs of the world just cannot produce as much oil as we are consuming? Several times now, the anticipated build just evaporated.

If housing woes spread (and you aren't smart enough to say unequivocally that that cannot happen) isn't it almost certain we will need more funds cuts?

I think the FED wanted to say that in December, if it is a close call, they MAY NOT cut. This was said to keep froth levels in the market down in the event that they don't see a need to cut. ie., They don't want to see a 500+ point down day, so they are giving investors fair warning. But let's face it, this FED (as is true of most), is truly deficient in its projections. They have no more idea of how the economy will look in six weeks than you or I. So any projection they make really has no merit. In fact, if things are strong enough so that a reduction in rates is unnecessary, next month, why go into defensive mode? Emerging economies will continue to prosper and oils and minerals and all commodities will continue to command big prices --- no? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/51933-agrium-set-for-explosive-growth?source=feed#comment-100443 100443 Wed, 31 Oct 2007 13:33:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/51933-agrium-set-for-explosive-growth?source=feed#comment-100339 100339
Ave 10 yr PE: 12X
Currently Trading at 5.5X Book Value
Currently at 25X Cash Flow
Current PE: 53X
5 yr Sales Growth: 15%
Net Margins: 3.4%
Debt/Equity Ratio: .55
Average ROE, ROA, ROC: 6% - 8%
Current Multiple of Book Value: 5X
10 Year Ave. Price/Sales ratio: .9


]]> Tue, 30 Oct 2007 16:07:27 -0400
Ave 10 yr PE: 12X
Currently Trading at 5.5X Book Value
Currently at 25X Cash Flow
Current PE: 53X
5 yr Sales Growth: 15%
Net Margins: 3.4%
Debt/Equity Ratio: .55
Average ROE, ROA, ROC: 6% - 8%
Current Multiple of Book Value: 5X
10 Year Ave. Price/Sales ratio: .9


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/51536-china-agritech-ready-for-all-time-highs?source=feed#comment-99985 99985 Fri, 26 Oct 2007 17:39:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/49104-hot-china-stocks-a-bubble-to-avoid?source=feed#comment-98129 98129 Tue, 09 Oct 2007 14:59:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/49277-natural-gas-naturally-not-participating?source=feed#comment-98125 98125
I know that vis-a-vis crude, it seems very underpriced and unloved, but that doesn't seem to impress anyone else. No one says buy it because as oil goes, so goes Nat Gas.

Hopefully, in the fullness of time, something will jog the price trend of Nat Gas so it will generate a long term escalation in the associated stock prices of the drillers/producers --- but I'm hard pressed to think of what such a catalyst might be. ]]> Tue, 09 Oct 2007 14:49:01 -0400
I know that vis-a-vis crude, it seems very underpriced and unloved, but that doesn't seem to impress anyone else. No one says buy it because as oil goes, so goes Nat Gas.

Hopefully, in the fullness of time, something will jog the price trend of Nat Gas so it will generate a long term escalation in the associated stock prices of the drillers/producers --- but I'm hard pressed to think of what such a catalyst might be. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48287-homes-no-longer-affordable-to-the-average-american?source=feed#comment-96916 96916 Wed, 26 Sep 2007 11:24:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/48116-hercules-offshore-getting-to-know-a-hero?source=feed#comment-96903 96903
Today, this country is not in a position to live with oil at over $100. It won't happen, because we cannot afford to allow it to happen.]]> Wed, 26 Sep 2007 10:02:17 -0400
Today, this country is not in a position to live with oil at over $100. It won't happen, because we cannot afford to allow it to happen.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48116-hercules-offshore-getting-to-know-a-hero?source=feed#comment-96820 96820
2) Hero's not a multinational, eventhough they offer their services all over the world --- so their revenues and profits are recorded in the dollar, which you correctly observe is in a state of collapse.

3) Much of the drilling by HERO is for Nat Gas. The markets perceive (rightly or wrongly) that we have a glut of Gas so Hero's rigs, boats and services will continue to operate at only about 70% of capacity --- well below the levels of a year ago.

I own a ton of HERO shares. I hope that there are other, stronger reasons to own it than those you have proposed. ie, The idea that oil will trade at a sustained price of $100 -$150 per barrel is off the wall. At that price, the economies of the world will be so far into recession (depression) that demand will totally collapse and so will the price!

]]> Tue, 25 Sep 2007 11:22:05 -0400
2) Hero's not a multinational, eventhough they offer their services all over the world --- so their revenues and profits are recorded in the dollar, which you correctly observe is in a state of collapse.

3) Much of the drilling by HERO is for Nat Gas. The markets perceive (rightly or wrongly) that we have a glut of Gas so Hero's rigs, boats and services will continue to operate at only about 70% of capacity --- well below the levels of a year ago.

I own a ton of HERO shares. I hope that there are other, stronger reasons to own it than those you have proposed. ie, The idea that oil will trade at a sustained price of $100 -$150 per barrel is off the wall. At that price, the economies of the world will be so far into recession (depression) that demand will totally collapse and so will the price!

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/47419-is-the-us-printing-money-like-mad?source=feed#comment-96284 96284
(Like the former Soviet Union), when the numbers didn't show what the Fed wanted them to, they just stopped calculating them or if they did calculate them, they never released the result. What ever happened to M3 --- it just disappeared.

This reasoning also explains why the Fed looks at "Core" inflation numbers and disregards the "Headline" number. How could the Fed say we have inflation under control with 6% - 10% real total inflation??? ]]> Tue, 18 Sep 2007 13:28:57 -0400
(Like the former Soviet Union), when the numbers didn't show what the Fed wanted them to, they just stopped calculating them or if they did calculate them, they never released the result. What ever happened to M3 --- it just disappeared.

This reasoning also explains why the Fed looks at "Core" inflation numbers and disregards the "Headline" number. How could the Fed say we have inflation under control with 6% - 10% real total inflation??? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/47097-forecasts-show-crude-prices-falling-steadily?source=feed#comment-95938 95938
Who the hell are the "average commodity analysts" you refer to? Can I be one? I read a book on oil futures once!!!]]> Thu, 13 Sep 2007 14:33:27 -0400
Who the hell are the "average commodity analysts" you refer to? Can I be one? I read a book on oil futures once!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/46864-blackstone-buys-20-stake-in-state-owned-chinese-chemical-producer?source=feed#comment-95741 95741 Tue, 11 Sep 2007 12:55:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/46910-weak-data-this-week-could-force-fed-to-cut-rates-before-meeting?source=feed#comment-95735 95735 Tue, 11 Sep 2007 12:25:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/46428-deep-sea-drillers-turning-back-up?source=feed#comment-95304 95304 OII). Listen to yesterday's conference call and you'll understand why they are BEST OF THE BEST.

Richie]]> Thu, 06 Sep 2007 11:20:08 -0400 OII). Listen to yesterday's conference call and you'll understand why they are BEST OF THE BEST.

Richie]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/46128-radian-group-enters-merger-agreement-with-mgic-investment-corporation?source=feed#comment-94891 94891 Fri, 31 Aug 2007 14:24:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/45963-lundin-mining-undervalued-base-metals-miner?source=feed#comment-94790 94790 Thu, 30 Aug 2007 11:52:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/45909-lundin-mining-this-bargain-won-t-last-forever?source=feed#comment-94729 94729
What source did you use to determine that the Lundins recently purchased a million shares of LMC in the open Market. I haven't been able to confirm such a purchase with any of my usual sources. ]]> Wed, 29 Aug 2007 12:20:23 -0400
What source did you use to determine that the Lundins recently purchased a million shares of LMC in the open Market. I haven't been able to confirm such a purchase with any of my usual sources. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/45923-understanding-buy-ins-and-the-naked-short-rule?source=feed#comment-94727 94727
Does that mean all the companies whose shares the hedgies have driven into the floor will now be bought in huge quantities???

Another question --- where stocks don't have market makers but rather are traded electronically, how do their short interest levels reach (in some cases) 40% to 50% or more of the float??? ]]> Wed, 29 Aug 2007 12:04:50 -0400
Does that mean all the companies whose shares the hedgies have driven into the floor will now be bought in huge quantities???

Another question --- where stocks don't have market makers but rather are traded electronically, how do their short interest levels reach (in some cases) 40% to 50% or more of the float??? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/45575-the-long-case-for-hong-kong?source=feed#comment-94543 94543
To write about this deal NOW is to offer those of us that are selling out for a short term gain the opportunity of a life-time. Thanks for coming to the party so late.

Spike]]> Fri, 24 Aug 2007 15:38:43 -0400
To write about this deal NOW is to offer those of us that are selling out for a short term gain the opportunity of a life-time. Thanks for coming to the party so late.

Spike]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/43877-now-is-the-time-to-buy-citigroup?source=feed#comment-93271 93271 Thu, 09 Aug 2007 14:34:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/43911-vix-breaks-below-20?source=feed#comment-93267 93267 Thu, 09 Aug 2007 14:18:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/41569-china-natural-gas-bumping-against-all-time-highs?source=feed#comment-93175 93175
CHNG --- This must be some super great company. They have a private placement to raise $15 million and they priced the shares at about $4.00 each !!!!! That's about $2.00 BELOW the current market price. Then, the morons get in there and BUY the shares in the market and drive them up even further. Incredibly, $4.00 is all the company could get for their shares, but the morons feel they are worth not only ~ $6.00, but even more, because they bid them up even after SDTH announced its private placement. Thank God we have morons that buy stocks.]]> Wed, 08 Aug 2007 14:49:06 -0400
CHNG --- This must be some super great company. They have a private placement to raise $15 million and they priced the shares at about $4.00 each !!!!! That's about $2.00 BELOW the current market price. Then, the morons get in there and BUY the shares in the market and drive them up even further. Incredibly, $4.00 is all the company could get for their shares, but the morons feel they are worth not only ~ $6.00, but even more, because they bid them up even after SDTH announced its private placement. Thank God we have morons that buy stocks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/42269-china-accelerating-use-of-natural-gas-vehicles?source=feed#comment-93174 93174
CHNG --- This must be some super great company. They have a private placement to raise $15 million and they priced the shares at about $4.00 each !!!!! That's about $2.00 BELOW the current market price. Then, the morons get in there and BUY the shares in the market and drive them up even further. Incredibly, $4.00 is all the company could get for their shares, but the morons feel they are worth not only ~ $6.00, but even more, because they bid them up even after SDTH announced its private placement. Thank God we have morons that buy stocks.]]> Wed, 08 Aug 2007 14:46:14 -0400
CHNG --- This must be some super great company. They have a private placement to raise $15 million and they priced the shares at about $4.00 each !!!!! That's about $2.00 BELOW the current market price. Then, the morons get in there and BUY the shares in the market and drive them up even further. Incredibly, $4.00 is all the company could get for their shares, but the morons feel they are worth not only ~ $6.00, but even more, because they bid them up even after SDTH announced its private placement. Thank God we have morons that buy stocks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/43602-fuel-tech-watch-price-action-as-earnings-are-due-out-this-morning?source=feed#comment-92993 92993 Mon, 06 Aug 2007 14:05:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/41994-using-the-vix-to-hedge-against-subprime-fallout?source=feed#comment-92015 92015
I'm a novice when it comes to using options (on the VIX) to protect my portfolio. Can you suggest some puts that you think are reasonably priced today to protect a diverse portfolio of perhaps $1 million???

Best,
Rich]]> Tue, 24 Jul 2007 13:58:34 -0400
I'm a novice when it comes to using options (on the VIX) to protect my portfolio. Can you suggest some puts that you think are reasonably priced today to protect a diverse portfolio of perhaps $1 million???

Best,
Rich]]>