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ahouseoforange

ahouseoforange
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  • J.P. Morgan's top oversold high-quality MLPs: PAA, PAGP, ETP, SUN [View news story]
    Loving PAGP at $24 and below. A total steal with dividend going above $1.00 in 2016. EPD also on sale.....their assets are invaluable topped by their real estate on the Houston shipping channel. And when the oil export ban is lifted both will be minting money like never seen before.
    Did also pick up some KMI warrants at $1.52 for fun today. 22 months of life left to go on these.
    Jul 24, 2015. 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's: Some analysts say MLPs may have hit bottom [View news story]
    Loaded up on thousands more PAGP this week.
    Jul 23, 2015. 07:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Has Enterprise Products Partners Fallen? [View article]
    Loaded up on more PAGP today. The dividend will near $1.00/share next year and the stock is barely above $24.00 now.
    Jul 20, 2015. 07:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG continues tech push [View news story]
    $70 by year end. Buy buy buy hope they aggressively keep buying stock since we are still selling at a discount to book. Looking for the dividend to increase come 2017 to north of 40 cents a quarter.
    Jun 22, 2015. 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American International Group: Power To Move Higher After AerCap Share Sale [View article]
    Loving my warrants. The time premium is under $10 at this point yet we have 5 1/2 years to go. Come 2017 the stock will likely trade near book value and by then the annual dividend likely will exceed $2.00 which will start to lower the strike price (rapidly).
    Jun 14, 2015. 08:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG: Management Is Doing At Least 2 Things Right [View article]
    Not sure I agree with the logic on the warrants. The total warrants outstanding equates to barely 5 or 6 percent of the outstanding common. Even if all got converted not that big a deal. And no don't think the board would hoard cash just to not pay a dividend above the threshold for the warrant adjustment. You are not talking a big $ amount.
    Jun 11, 2015. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Worth $95 Per Share [View article]
    The warrants were a steal in the single digits down at $6.00 like over 3 years ago when basically nobody wanted them. They continue to be a good deal. With 10% book value growth (estimating) the next 4 years BV will be around $115.00 in 2019. Even if the common were still trading at 90% of book value you are looking at a stock just north of $100. Granted with the common having moved up to $60 the gain would be just over 65% - 70% on the stock. However, with a stock price of $105.00 the warrants cash value would be about $60 and by 2019 there will be nearly 2 years of life left on them. Warrants trading around $62.00 in 2019 means a doubling from today's levels or a 100% gain vs. 65% for the stock. Then you also have the dividend adjustment which no doubt will kick in sometime in the next 2 years as the board raises the dividend beyond the threshold. AND then there is the secret formula which will entitle warrant holders to buy MORE than 1 common share for every warrant held depending on certain stipulations. There are articles around that discuss this formula i.e. secret sauce. Let's speculate I am entitled to buy 1.1 common shares for 1 warrant. Basically if the stock is at $115 and I can buy 10% more with one warrant you can simplistically say the stock is worth about $125.00. Apply the 90% discount to book and you get let's say $115.00. THAT makes each warrant worth around $70 PLUS remaining life of 2 years.

    NOW let's still be conservative but assume the stock trades at 1.1 x book value i.e. 1.1 x $125.00 = $135 plus. Warrants then are worth around $90 plus. And let's be generous and say the stock trades at 1.3 x book value in 2019 = $165 incl the 'secret sauce' and at $165 the warrants are worth $120.00 or almost 5 x what they are worth today. At $165 the stock is worth barely 3 x what it is worth today!
    Jun 10, 2015. 10:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PNC Financial Services Is Worth A Look [View article]
    Great ride on the warrants lately. The stock is near $100 now so the warrants are "in the money" by like $32.00 which means the market is putting a value of $0.00 on the remaining life of the warrants and yet there are 42 plus months left to go before expiration.
    Jun 10, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG's Hancock talks shop at investor conference [View news story]
    Gangbusters!!!!!
    Jun 3, 2015. 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG unloading chunk of AerCap stake [View news story]
    Not so sure about 'highly appreciated'. True AER is trading higher than 2 years ago but as I recall AIG valued ILFC higher.
    Jun 2, 2015. 06:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG unloading chunk of AerCap stake [View news story]
    Book value including AOCI and DTA will in all likelihood approach the high $80s by the end of this year and by the end of 2016 will most likely be north of the mid $90s. Book excluding AOCI and DTA will be well into the $80s by 2016. I would love to see the common remain under $60 for another year so the company can maximize the bang for every buyback buck. In all likelihood the buyback number for the current quarter will end up being north of $2 billion. And come the next earnings announcement the board will add yet another $2 billion or maybe even $4 billion to the existing authorization. It is possible we will end 2015 with nearly $10 billion worth of stock having been repurchased with another $10 billion taken out in 2016. If the common should manage to catch up to book value (we would need to see the shares rise another 30% give or take) then the company will start aggressively raising the dividend. In that case expect a dividend north of $1.50 or closer to $2.00 by 2017. The strike price on the TARP warrants will start to be reduced from $45 as a result and the number of common shares each warrant can purchase will start to increase as dividends are paid in excess of the threshold.
    Jun 1, 2015. 09:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG unloading chunk of AerCap stake [View news story]
    AIG common will be north of the mid $70s by year end 2016 at a minimum and still be selling at a discount to book even when not including AOCI. By then at least $12 billion of additional stock will have been repurchased or more than 10 percent of the current total shares outstanding. The buybacks in the meantime will have caused book value to continue to surge hire the next 2 years as in past years. Also, regardless of a continued discount to book the annual dividend in 2 years will top $1.00/share which with a stock price in the $70s will still be a sub-par yield compared to the industry. By year-end 2020 we will likely have experienced buybacks totaling north of $25 billion.
    Jun 1, 2015. 06:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Has Room To Grow Its Dividend [View article]
    Sorry but that is plain silly. The board is not going to make raising the dividend eventually depend on whether January 2021 has come and gone yet. Besides....AIG has well over a 1.3 billion in common shares outstanding and only give or take 75 million warrants.
    Jun 1, 2015. 07:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Compass Re II 2015-1 Cat Bond Grows To $300m For AIG [View article]
    Fully agree and holding on to the TARP warrants for dear life the next 5 plus years.
    May 30, 2015. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Klarman boosts stakes in AIG and Ocwen Financial [View news story]
    Gotcha.....he already held TARP warrants and it was not clear to me how he increased his holdings.
    May 17, 2015. 07:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
411 Comments
249 Likes