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wretchedturkey

wretchedturkey
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  • Chelsea Therapeutics: Primed For An Easy Double [View article]
    Bob, there is a difference between weighing the risks & rewards of making a calculated bet of a FDA approval and just throwing caution to the wind and gambling on a coin flip chance of FDA approval.

    Bob, in all of your articles, you have not once articulated WHY or HOW chtp is likely to gain approval. Sure, if it happens the stock will appreciably spike however you have not explained why you feel it is so certain.

    It has not met FDA's thresholds and it has been rejected by the FDA several times. Add to that the current trials are based on failed trials and that's a recipe for disaster. It may possibly get approved, I'm not suggesting its a lock not to be, BUT please stop hyping it up without justification!
    Nov 26, 2013. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chelsea Therapeutics: Primed For An Easy Double [View article]
    Wow. The lemmings jump!

    Bob, what has changed since Oct 23 and your last article? Ah yes, CHTP went to market to obtain more money to burn...

    To itradepro, oldorv and whoever else who may be considering CHTP: please learn more about the history of the company and its directors before speculating on this stock. There are plenty of red flags. While there is a chance of a significant share appreciation should CHTP's drug get FDA approved, there is PLENTY of risk here (more than the typical drug attempting to obtain FDA approval).

    And my opinion is that Bob is not properly evaluating the risks here - his own conclusion only highlights the upside potential without stating the risk. Categorize this as highly speculative and not attractive at all. Is the upside potential high? Absolutely. But it is more of a 50/50 coin flip.
    Nov 26, 2013. 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brookfield's Looking-Glass World [View article]
    While I cannot debate the specifics of BAM's financials since I have not read it yet, as a Chartered Professional Accountant I take offense of your tone with regards to the accounting profession and your disdain for the work I do.
    I'll assume that you already know this but I'll state it matter-of-factly for other readers - the accounting standards in the US are different from Canadian as Canada has switched over to IFRS and the US is still running on its own standards. Roddy, obviously to you with US accounting as your background do not agree with how to apply fair values but it is now the norm to run fair value gains through the income statement instead of the retained earnings.

    I would also like to mention that what you accuse as 'dirty accounting by BAM's BOD and the Bay Street banks & others', is actually mandatory by EVERYONE. This is the world of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). BAM's BOD have very little discretion in regards to its accounting of fair values since all values 'recognized' by BAM must be verified with appropriate and sufficient audit evidence - typically 3rd party evidence obtained by the auditors.

    Second, even if you wish to discount or disregard the fair value "gain" - which is certainly appropriate when discussing free cash flow and incremental cash from the operating business (I agree that it is a paper gain after all) - however, the paper gain was only created because there was an even larger fictitious paper loss created previously. And surprise surprise, the fictitious paper loss heavily hit the SP - as it should. What??? A paper loss causing real world share price decreases??? Oh yes. Fair values - in BAM's world are crucial since BAM is an asset manager and generates its revenues from the management and sale of assets. If the fair values are lower then less future revenues, assets are worth more then investors can prognosticate higher future revenues.

    So while I concur that investors need to recognize that fair value gains are not immediate cash generating revenues, however it does indeed have a real world affect as future revenues can be expected to be higher because of it - either through future sales of assets or management fees on these assets.

    But thank you for reminding readers how fair value gains are not cash in today's pocket. That point is certainly vital to recognize.
    Nov 19, 2013. 10:49 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Spark Networks: Still Mispriced [View article]
    Any explanation given by management as to why the last two quarters have been so dramatically poor?
    Nov 18, 2013. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Spark Networks: Still Mispriced [View article]
    2 Qs:
    1) When will or how will investors finally be able to 'properly value' LOV? I'm not sure I see why you feel that the stock is mispriced and misunderstood by the street. Its got a fairly simple business plan and the structure and overall road to riches are relatively straight forward. So what is causing the street to misprice this hidden gem?

    2) Also, as others have mentioned, the mere fact that a market is huge is not reason enough to value a company higher. LOV has yet to show any meaningful (i.e. profitable) growth from this 'untapped' market. IMHO, the marketsize doesn't mean a whole lot if the market is incorrectly defined. Which may be the case here.

    The potential is there but that isn't reason enough to invest. It's speculation to believe that the potential will be tapped into. Foreseeing how the company will tap into that potential - NOW THERE is the investment thesis one can jump into.
    Nov 17, 2013. 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • POZEN Inc. And Chelsea Therapeutics Primed For Big Gains On The Road To PDUFA [View article]
    Oct 24 - I called it. CHTP coming back to the well to get another drink of water.

    I'm bearish until I hear management say that they are starting trials from scratch to produce the results required by FDA. As long as they regurgitate the same garbage with 306b, nothing will come of it.
    Nov 13, 2013. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: NQ Live Is A Game Changer [View article]
    xyq11, no offense but you can't do DD on a chinese company unless you go down there in person and see it in person. No report or 3rd party account should be sufficient for you.

    In fact, I have seen with my very own eyes how Chinese companies have faked cash balances on bank accounts for external auditors. I'm not suggesting that this is the case here but I am trying to say that it is possible to happen. PwC or any external auditing firm can be tricked if sufficient appropriate audit evidence is not obtained. If even the slightest drip of audit evidence is not external from the company then its possible to fake.
    Oct 27, 2013. 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: NQ Live Is A Game Changer [View article]
    If its true that NQ's biggest customer is themselves and that their marketshare of China is 1.5% and not 55%... well yes, the target price of $63 would indeed change. LOL
    Oct 24, 2013. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: NQ Live Is A Game Changer [View article]
    "Very well managed company" or very well doctored company?
    Oct 24, 2013. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: NQ Live Is A Game Changer [View article]
    Yowza! No kidding!
    Oct 24, 2013. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • POZEN Inc. And Chelsea Therapeutics Primed For Big Gains On The Road To PDUFA [View article]
    Bob, you practically disregard the chance of CHTP not getting approval! You make it sound like its in the bag for CHTP (I'm unfamiliar with POZN, so I cannot comment on its merits).

    CHTP has had several chances with the FDA, only to be denied the holy grail of biotech. The FDA did not like the results presented by CHTP two times and even though they originally said CHTP had to start over, CHTP was able to convince the FDA to accept 306b as the basis for a new trial.

    The motive simple - save a whole whack of cash for CHTP. Without using 306b as the basis for a study, they wouldn't have the funds to build a new trial. Even as is, CHTP is not cash rich and will almost certainly need to come to market and dilute the shares with an offering to obtain the funds to proceed with the tests and trials (risk 1 for investors).
    Second, even if they produce a study suitable for submission, will it be approved finally by the FDA? They already were rejected TWICE!!! It is far from certain that it would be accepted now UNLESS THEY CAN RESOLVE THE PROBLEMS THAT PLAGUED THEM WITH THE FIRST REJECTIONS. I am unconvinced that there is a high probability is approval until they can say that their tests have sufficiently resolved the issues posed by the FDA.

    At that time and only then can investors say that CHTP has a high probability of approval by the FDA.
    Oct 24, 2013. 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: A Buying Opportunity After Recent Earnings [View article]
    To same123, tvmule, and stockstranger. The figures publically acknowledged by the company and the analysts have been both .20 and .29. It simply depends on whether you adjust for the Elpida acquisition and GAAP/non-GAAP issues.

    The central thesis and point of the author does not change materially though. He was simply stating that the earnings report should not have had such a significant negative impact on the SP and that the future prospects of the company have not shifted based on the report released. The author is arguing that if anything the future is stronger because of the Elpida acquisition and that any weakness shown by the market (especially in the context of Elpida) should be viewed as an opportunity more so than an emerging downside trend.

    If you disagree with this contention of the author, then your proper response should be to discuss how the future has now drastically changed from pre-earnings to post.
    Oct 24, 2013. 09:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seek Undervalued Growth [View article]
    The US' tax revenue would be over 5 trillion if Corporate America would pay their fair share instead of leaving the workload to the individuals to carry.

    Lobbyists and politicians who create the loopholes to cheat the system should be so very proud... capitalism at its best right there...
    Oct 21, 2013. 06:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals - Belviq Ad Gets More Creative [View article]
    No offense but a comment like that holds no water. No way to verify the facts nor do you present the full story - perhaps your friend starved themselves for 2 weeks. Did your friend take Belviq or Qsymia or neither? And lets not even judge the fact that this is your first comment on these boards...

    To Longs and shorts, this is red herring to ignore and not base any investment on.
    Oct 17, 2013. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Too Late For The Micron Technology Turnaround? [View article]
    Most of what I read was more about investors locking in the gains since future guidance was soft. So not so much about confusion on adjusted earnings due to Elpida...
    Oct 13, 2013. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
535 Comments
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