Nice, fun article Alan. Personally, I was hoping for more life lessons :) but I guess I'll have to be satisfied with don't hold your losers and cut your winners.
I also thought it was very insightful to recognize how your 2011 performance may have affected your trading in early 2012 (i.e. to lock in some gains early to get ahead of the game).
Intel's Upcoming Q4 Earnings: The Must Read Guide [View article]
Just imagine the day where everyone's processing capabilities are done offsite (cloud computing or the like) using large-scale cruiseship-sized data centers being set up. Due to cloud computing and other internet based phenomena, companies/websites/ind... will be more comfortable outsourcing their data storage & processing which in turn will create large monster data centers and fewer smaller-scale ones. These behemoth data centers will require the most powerful and strongest processing capabilities imaginable. Instead of data centers with 100 servers in a single building (think Storm Sandy taking out the data centers in NYC), it could end up being data centers with 10,000 servers lined up for miles. I'm not sure if ARM can handle that... just yet...
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
So what you are saying is that your EXPECTATION of a company is that they release their product to the public months in advance of their launch date so that everyone will know what it is before it gets launched???
Should Biotech drug research companies do the same? Let the drugs fly off the shelf and record the results and then afterwards determine if its safe for public consumption???
RIM is allowing some companies to test drive it in a real environment so as to replicate how it would work on a grand scale so that RIM can troubleshoot any problems or issues BEFORE the public launch - doesn't that sound reasonable? And based on the rumored reports slipping out from the people who have tested it is that they are pleasantly surprised (considering their expectations were so low) with the functioning of the BB10s.
Why Arena Pharmaceuticals Will Underperform In 2013 [View article]
bigeagle, that's the first time I have heard someone called future sales fundamentals - especially for a company that doesn't have any past sales....
sorry, my friend, but that's called hype.
I would like to mention though, that I think (my personal opinion) VVUS has wetted the public's appetite for anti-obesity drugs (see the pun I pulled?) and both companies will see some exponential sales growth and not just a continuation of VVUS' past sales figures. I think its fair to say that the public needed time to warm up to the drugs (and also to see/hear some first-hand results outside of drug trials).
Why Arena Pharmaceuticals Will Underperform In 2013 [View article]
Iqbal1, its about catalysts. Biotechs either live or die with them. If you see an upcoming catalyst that can only disappoint (due to overhyped sales expectations as the author suggests) then the result can be reasonably estimated.
Lululemon Athletica Remains Hot For 2013 [View article]
I'm not suggesting every detail that comes out in the year is noteworthy, but there are certainly important catalysts or news-worthy game changers during any given year (i.e. lawsuits, new technology that renders older products obsolete, etc).
Intel's Buybacks Are Not A Gimmick: A Rebuttal [View article]
The only issue I have with buybacks is the underhanded ploy of pumping EPS.
I.e. a company earns 1 million over a million shares is 1.0 EPS. Same company buys back 50% of shares but has its earnings dropped by 50% to $500k also has an EPS of 1.0 - very deceptive if its not openly brought to the attention of shareholders because OBVIOUSLY shareholders would care more about the decrease in earnings by 50% than the fact that EPS is still 1.0.
Intel's Buybacks Are Not A Gimmick: A Rebuttal [View article]
ephud, Intel didn't use its current cash for the buybacks. They used a new debt issuance for the buyback.
Furthermore, they still have their current pile of cash for R&D (which Intel never stopped doing), dividend distributions, and other company objectives.
Why Arena Pharmaceuticals Will Underperform In 2013 [View article]
Author, I sincerely agree with you. I'm not sure if you truly believe in ARNA or not, but I am a bull of ARNA but I still agree that the current levels are full of hot air and not enough fundamentals. I'm simply watching to see if the fundamentals materialize with strong sales figures.
Why Arena Pharmaceuticals Will Underperform In 2013 [View article]
777, please re-read the article. The author SAID to go long for Jan 1 and speculate it before the sales figures come in. The author merely suggested that the stock is trading primarily on hype; i.e. extravagant multiples... (if you feel it is justified then that's OK). But the important thing to remember when stocks trade on large multiples is that the slightest bad news will have a more significant impact on the stock price. That is why the author suggested getting in and out of the stock (i.e. to time your speculative play). He point being that the fundamentals don't agree with the stock price and therefore investors should acknowledge they are being speculators and not investors in 2013.
Finally, as the author concluded, long term investors need not consider the ups & downs in 2013 unless a material new development appears (i.e. lawsuits or market not materializing).
Lululemon Athletica Remains Hot For 2013 [View article]
Industry professionals use a whole gamut of tools for analysis, not just a revenue extrapolation.
Would you agree that revenue extrapolation works well when zero conditions change, when zero new information alters one's analysis. However, once something new appears, old analyses must be re-examined (at the very least)?
Owning Up To My 2012 Picks [View article]
... so that I & the rest of us can profit from it!
Owning Up To My 2012 Picks [View article]
I also thought it was very insightful to recognize how your 2011 performance may have affected your trading in early 2012 (i.e. to lock in some gains early to get ahead of the game).
Looking forward to your 2013 insights.
Have a happy & prosperous new year!
Intel's Upcoming Q4 Earnings: The Must Read Guide [View article]
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
Should Biotech drug research companies do the same? Let the drugs fly off the shelf and record the results and then afterwards determine if its safe for public consumption???
RIM is allowing some companies to test drive it in a real environment so as to replicate how it would work on a grand scale so that RIM can troubleshoot any problems or issues BEFORE the public launch - doesn't that sound reasonable? And based on the rumored reports slipping out from the people who have tested it is that they are pleasantly surprised (considering their expectations were so low) with the functioning of the BB10s.
Case closed.
Research In Motion Share Valuation: Buyers Beware [View article]
There are pictures, manuals and other "leaked" data on BB10 out there.
Why Arena Pharmaceuticals Will Underperform In 2013 [View article]
sorry, my friend, but that's called hype.
I would like to mention though, that I think (my personal opinion) VVUS has wetted the public's appetite for anti-obesity drugs (see the pun I pulled?) and both companies will see some exponential sales growth and not just a continuation of VVUS' past sales figures. I think its fair to say that the public needed time to warm up to the drugs (and also to see/hear some first-hand results outside of drug trials).
Why Arena Pharmaceuticals Will Underperform In 2013 [View article]
Intel's Upcoming Q4 Earnings: The Must Read Guide [View article]
Lululemon Athletica Remains Hot For 2013 [View article]
A Dozen Rapidly Growing Stocks Getting No Respect [View article]
Intel's Buybacks Are Not A Gimmick: A Rebuttal [View article]
I.e. a company earns 1 million over a million shares is 1.0 EPS.
Same company buys back 50% of shares but has its earnings dropped by 50% to $500k also has an EPS of 1.0 - very deceptive if its not openly brought to the attention of shareholders because OBVIOUSLY shareholders would care more about the decrease in earnings by 50% than the fact that EPS is still 1.0.
Intel's Buybacks Are Not A Gimmick: A Rebuttal [View article]
Furthermore, they still have their current pile of cash for R&D (which Intel never stopped doing), dividend distributions, and other company objectives.
Why Arena Pharmaceuticals Will Underperform In 2013 [View article]
Thanks for trying to keep investors grounded.
Why Arena Pharmaceuticals Will Underperform In 2013 [View article]
That is why the author suggested getting in and out of the stock (i.e. to time your speculative play). He point being that the fundamentals don't agree with the stock price and therefore investors should acknowledge they are being speculators and not investors in 2013.
Finally, as the author concluded, long term investors need not consider the ups & downs in 2013 unless a material new development appears (i.e. lawsuits or market not materializing).
Lululemon Athletica Remains Hot For 2013 [View article]
Would you agree that revenue extrapolation works well when zero conditions change, when zero new information alters one's analysis. However, once something new appears, old analyses must be re-examined (at the very least)?