Seeking Alpha

wretchedturkey

wretchedturkey
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View wretchedturkey's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Chelsea Therapeutics And Venaxis Incorporated - Top Pics For Big Gains In Q1 [View article]
    Except that CHTP has already said several times it will NOT carry out a new study (because it lacks the funding or enough patients), rather it wants to use 306b as the basis for a study and simply add on to it.

    The FDA has flip-flopped on this as originally they did not like that idea but after much pandering by CHTP's directors, FDA agreed to allow CHTP to use it as a basis for a new study (probably because of Northera's orphan drug status).

    As of today, there is no more likelihood than not of an FDA approval it is an absolute coin flip and people who follow CHTP must be cognizant of this. If it gets approved, the stock instantly pops handsomely over its current pps (my guess is it will pop to about $9.00-$12.00), if rejected, it falls to the $1.00-$1.50 range (this is my guess).

    So, speculators, do you like the risk reward profile? It fell 10%+ today, so we're looking at currently 3.60 popping to $9-$12 or falling to $1-$1.5.
    Please "like" this comment if you agree with my assessment of the current status of Northera.
    Jan 3 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Can Explain 96% Of Your Portfolio's Returns [View article]
    Kiran, there is a term for what you are describing: the confirmation bias. When an idea/argument is introduced as a fact, people have a tendency to have a bias towards affirming the argument. Furthermore, people also tend to put more weight on instances that support the argument and less weight on instances that go against it.

    People see a beta of 2.0 attached to a stock and instances where the stock jumps twice that of the market and people will chalk it up as proof of the beta 2.0. But when instances of a lesser jump occurs, people will ignore or disregard it as an anomaly.
    Dec 31 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ideas For 2014: Long GCVRZ [View article]
    Thanks Scal. I was confused by all of this. You are correct that I thought the conversation was on SNY as a whole and not just the rights, GCVRZ. Thanks for clearing that up.
    Dec 31 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ideas For 2014: Long GCVRZ [View article]
    What in heavens name are you 3 talking about??? SNY hardly moved on the news of the FDA rejection. I wish ALL FDA rejections move so little! I happen to agree with Steve in that I also did not get the sense from the article that Chris was giving the possibility of an FDA rejection its fair share.

    In either case, the stock HARDLY moved, so if you were long BEFORE the news, celebrate because the stock is free and clear of the most uncertain risky aspect of it. Now you can bask in the glow of the SNY potential.
    Dec 30 11:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ideas For 2014: Long GCVRZ [View article]
    Hi Chris.

    Any update/retorts to the recent FDA rejection? Is it safe to assume that the mild stock price decreases after the news of the rejection is primarily due to the fact that it was not very much priced in to begin with? Possibly also due to it being right around New Years and trading is just generally quieter right around now?
    Dec 30 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Do I Know When To Sell A Stock? [View article]
    hjtheuns, I see that you made the same critical mistake all pundits that sell tax-deferred accounts make.

    When someone sells a stock that carries with it an unrealized capital gain (whether ST or LT) and will need to pay taxes due to it, the actual proceeds from the sale of the stock will NOT be reduced for the taxes (this is what you said and it is incorrect).

    Simply put, no one withdraws from their non-registered taxable trading accounts to pay taxes! As such, both deferred and taxable accounts grow unhindered from taxes. Instead, people pay taxes from other sources; i.e. their discretionary spending pools like vacations, electronics, dining, etc.

    Granted, the net cash affect on a global point of view is that there are taxes being paid to reduce the net cash in your pocket, however I am of the opinion that rational investors of which spend some time reading SA and diligently invest and invest in sound investments will use their discretionary pools to pay their taxes.
    Dec 19 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Doesn't The Dividend Growth ETF Grow Its Dividends? [View article]
    Roger, you have blown my mind. While I had a concept of the first reason you give, I was not even remotely aware of the 2nd reason. Thanks for bringing it to everyone's attention.
    Dec 19 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mart Resources Is Not Currently A Sub-Saharan Oasis In The African Energy Patch [View article]
    I don't mean to say it won't be positive at all - otherwise why would I be long MMT as well? But I mean that it will not entail some sort of magic triple digit share price explosion right off the bat.

    Investing in MMT is not a lottery ticket like alot of investors hope for in other popular stocks discussed on this website. The 2nd pipeline will generate true and real sustaining growth for the future. Nevertheless, there are risks to be cognizant of. That is all.
    Dec 19 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mart Resources Is Not Currently A Sub-Saharan Oasis In The African Energy Patch [View article]
    sc21, I completely agree that the 2nd pipeline is the single most important event in the company.
    However, my point was that it is already priced in! Everyone KNOWS that it will bring production rates much higher. Everyone KNOWS that it will be a huge revenue driver for the company. Everyone expects it to be operational by June 2014. None of this is new information of which one can trade on now.

    Its just plain silly to think that the day the pipeline goes online that the stock will magically jump because of it! Everyone expects it to go online and produce. Conversely, if the pipeline is delayed, or is not as productive as expected or is more costly than originally anticipated, this information is NOT known and WOULD have a negative impact on the share price should something like this happen.

    And to bring home the main point of the author's article - new & current investors need to realize that since the pipeline is already priced in, so if any one of the plethora of risks occur then it will hit the share price hard and it will be difficult to regain investors trust at that point. (The author's 2nd point being that the risk/reward profile is not so great since MMT is fairly valued...)
    Dec 19 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mart Resources Is Not Currently A Sub-Saharan Oasis In The African Energy Patch [View article]
    VD,

    solid analysis and summary of the risks attached to MMT. Personally, I feel you are downplaying the potential rewards here but that in no way should minimize the risks you mention.

    One overriding thought though for prospective investors in MMT: there is absolute risk here which cannot be mitigated simply by a 2nd pipeline. And if one wants to invest here then be prepared to read about oil thefts and disruptions. These occurrences are common in Nigeria and should not alter one's investment thesis unless the trends negatively grow. In my opinion, the stock dropped from its February 2013 high because these stoppages & losses were greater than anticipated, however future prognostications are now higher and there is more room to surprise positively on this.
    Dec 18 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mart Resources Is Not Currently A Sub-Saharan Oasis In The African Energy Patch [View article]
    FlaYankee,

    in your opinion do you feel that the new pipeline is already priced in to the stock or no? Its readily available information and been digested by the markets for quite some time.
    On the other hand, a delay from June 2014 would be an unexpected and detrimental catalyst.

    At the end of the day, if the new pipeline comes online as planned, then it will not bear any significant effect on the stock price. I am not saying it will not have any affect on cash flow, revenues, etc but the stock price multiple will adjust accordingly and therefore the stock price won't move much.
    Dec 18 04:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Do Troubled Companies Like BP Outperform Coca-Cola For 20+ Years? [View article]
    Tim, the only issue I have with your analysis is that you chose an arbitrary date, i.e. 1993. While this may seem insignificant, it does mean that you identified a period of time when KO was around its highs and BP was much better (in hindsight) valued.

    Had you chose 1940 (or whenever BP began to trade), I am not sure if your analysis would be the same.

    On the other hand, your central point that timing one's start-out investing & dividend reinvesting is a crucial part of the overall return on investment is poignant and holds true.
    In fact, my first comment above speaks directly to this; if one had started that $10k investment in a KO low PE period then it would have flourished.
    Dec 17 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brookfield's Looking-Glass World [View article]
    Global, wish to substantiate those claims? A few verifiable links would help. Also, if your claims are purely garnered from the financials, please enlighten the board with actual facts and figures.

    Thank you
    Dec 15 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: A Long Strategy For 2014 [View article]
    I also agree with Mr Cat. For now, the only real way to play BBRY is to do it via options and not actual long/short positions.

    BBRY has alot of potentially exciting revenue streams, however nothing is materializing thus far. And it does not show signs of breaking out of this problem at any point in time at all.

    If one is not comfortable with options, it is best and safer to stay out of it until things clear up a little bit. Don't fear missing out a little bit, should something materialize, its must safer to miss a little than to get caught up and hit by a freight train.
    Dec 12 10:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: A Long Strategy For 2014 [View article]
    I don't wish to be too mean here but without any commentators offering any criticism and everyone acting like a lemming I feel compelled to offer up some commonsense;

    Is it just me or did the author give an investment plan without offering a shred of real analysis of value, risk/reward, or anything regarding the company?

    All I got from it was that 'invest this way, average cost down, and WHEN it goes up you will have a profit to book in 2014. If it doesn't go up, its because there's a risk that some investments don't work out as planned.' DURRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

    The section of 'all dogs have their day' - his only investment analysis section - has a lot of maybes, 'maybe Chen pulls a rabbit out of his hat, maybe earnings explode because Santa Claus is a Crackberry-aholic, etc' maybe... but not a whole lot of analysis as to why these things might happen.

    I don't see any explanation or reason for BBRY or its prospects to improve. Only 'I hope', 'maybe' and alot of irrational and unexplained optimism.

    Sounds more like an underwater long wishing to get out at breakeven.

    Every investor - whether already in or not - needs to more critically assess and independently think of the investment thesis being sold by an author.

    Disclosure: Long BBRY as an investor & as a fan but smaller position than when I used to be bullish. Position is more of a flier to pay attention in the off chance that BBRY does turn around at some point.
    Dec 12 09:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
458 Comments
628 Likes