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wretchedturkey

wretchedturkey
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  • BlackBerry: A Long Strategy For 2014 [View article]
    I don't wish to be too mean here but without any commentators offering any criticism and everyone acting like a lemming I feel compelled to offer up some commonsense;

    Is it just me or did the author give an investment plan without offering a shred of real analysis of value, risk/reward, or anything regarding the company?

    All I got from it was that 'invest this way, average cost down, and WHEN it goes up you will have a profit to book in 2014. If it doesn't go up, its because there's a risk that some investments don't work out as planned.' DURRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

    The section of 'all dogs have their day' - his only investment analysis section - has a lot of maybes, 'maybe Chen pulls a rabbit out of his hat, maybe earnings explode because Santa Claus is a Crackberry-aholic, etc' maybe... but not a whole lot of analysis as to why these things might happen.

    I don't see any explanation or reason for BBRY or its prospects to improve. Only 'I hope', 'maybe' and alot of irrational and unexplained optimism.

    Sounds more like an underwater long wishing to get out at breakeven.

    Every investor - whether already in or not - needs to more critically assess and independently think of the investment thesis being sold by an author.

    Disclosure: Long BBRY as an investor & as a fan but smaller position than when I used to be bullish. Position is more of a flier to pay attention in the off chance that BBRY does turn around at some point.
    Dec 12 09:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Arena Has What It Takes, Why Is It Down? [View article]
    bigligand, care you throw your hat in the ring?

    ARNA is a pipe dream stock which only interests a select few (lottery-ticket toting investors). As such, not many investors care enough to analyze or discuss it.
    Dec 10 08:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Arena Has What It Takes, Why Is It Down? [View article]
    Spencer, IMHO, I think you are incorrect that the problem is that Belviq is like Weight Watchers and other weight-reduction programs. You have stated such several times but without much real explanation as to why one is appropriately comparable to the other.

    IMO, taking drugs are NOT the same. People can start, suspend, re-start a weight-loss program however when one decides to take drugs, then they cannot just stop out of the blue and expect to retake it later on with successful results.

    In fact, I believe the exact opposite will happen: people who have started taking Belviq (or Qsymia for that matter) will continue to take it right through the holidays in the hopes that it will curb their appetite and help them retain or (if overly optimistic) lose weight during the holidays.

    Both of the above theories I believe are more plausible than a simple comparable of weight-loss drugs to weight-loss programs.

    All that being said, in my opinion, I would expect sales to only slightly decrease due to there being fewer days to go to a doctor for an appointment and fewer days to head to the pharmacy to pick up the meds. Otherwise, I would expect sales to more or less maintain its pace throughout the holidays until everyone's schedule gets back to normal.
    Dec 10 10:16 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brookfield's Looking-Glass World [View article]
    UncleLongHair, I would just add, though, that marked to market and fair values is not quite as 'paper' as you put it. While investors should exclude fair value gains/losses from day to day operations, however there is a great amount of value to glean from it.

    Particularly for asset management companies, the fair value of assets provides alot of valuable information since revenues are generated from the assets. As a result, when an asset appreciates in value, the asset manager's future revenue-stream will also appreciate accordingly.
    Dec 9 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking My "Alpha Rich" Ideas [View instapost]
    Mike, after reading your Dream article, I did my own DD on it to gain more familiarity with it and at some point shortly later, went long on the TSX market. The timing of it all could not have been better and I just have this gut feeling that dividends will be in store in the future - my guesstimate is after a full year running is may begin.

    Either way, thanks for your call, your articles and insight have made my 2013 profitable and very exciting!
    Dec 8 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Document Security Systems Going To Go Parabolic Like VirnetX Did? [View article]
    Just because it hasn't happened does not mean it will never.

    The reason it typically doesn't happen is because the "big tech company", as you so put it, are only interested in the specific patents that they are infringing upon. As such, it will always be cheaper to just license or purchase the rights to just that patent(s) rather than buy the entire company.

    The only rationale for someone to buy out DSS or the like would be if they saw an opportunity to do damage to their direct competitors - of which there may possibly be "unwritten rules" of etiquette amongst them.
    Dec 5 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliff Asness' 10 Peeves [View article]
    Astute observations and I couldn't agree more.
    The difference between permanent impairment and temporary volatility is hard to judge while it occurs; and it is always advisable NOT to time such an event as one will never [truly] know whether they are catching a 'falling knife' investment or simply entering at a point in time prior to a rebound.
    Dec 3 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Document Security Systems Going To Go Parabolic Like VirnetX Did? [View article]
    Welcome Jonathan to the rodeo! Congrats on your first contribution, may there be many more and many that provide readers with an incredible alpha!
    Dec 2 07:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Kick Chelsea After It Trips On Its Northera Data Again [View article]
    Funny how history tends to repeat itself but only when investors fail to learn from it the first go around...

    Too many don't do enough proper due diligence and choose rather to follow whichever contributor that has the same opinion as their own.

    The confirmation bias of investing.
    Dec 1 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brookfield's Looking-Glass World [View article]
    Actually E.R., I was referring to fair value accounting. But estimates chosen by management with regards to litigation costs is actually one area where an auditor is not truly able to safely gauge the true amount since by its very nature he is reliant on management for this figure.

    Lastly, why do you say "...controlling his owners assets to selling YOU back the assets via Partners LTD". I'm not involved in any way, shape or form.

    My comments above are purely to highlight that fair value accounting is a mechanism that helps investors make an informed decision but only with the right knowledge and understanding of its nuances. Paper gains/losses vs real world gains/losses which Mr Boyd brings to light is just one such nuance.
    Dec 1 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Document Security Systems Going To Go Parabolic Like VirnetX Did? [View article]
    I believe IP Hawk's comments very levelheaded here and grounded. People who have jumped on the bandwagon without fully understanding the nuances of patent litigation would be wise to pay attention and get a better grasp.

    Sure, a win at litigation will be amazing for a stock, but that's just as much of a gamble as gambling on a stock due to a pending FDA approval. It takes alot of money and time to get to that end and EVERY prudent investor should recognize which stage DSS is at currently and what it will need to get from here to a winning final verdict.
    Dec 1 06:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Document Security Systems Going To Go Parabolic Like VirnetX Did? [View article]
    I would like to add that DSS is not solely valuable due to its lawsuit on Apple, but that is the primary reason its reached the ears and hearts of the retail investor world. As mentioned above and below, there are certainly other aspects of DSS that make it worthy of an investment for those that can stomach the risk and drama that go along with this type of stock.
    Nov 30 11:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Document Security Systems: Should Investors Take Advantage Of This Opportunity And Average Down? [View article]
    After today's news, it seemed appropriate to re-bump this article.
    Even before today's news the stock was 29% higher than when this article was posted.

    Good job Justin.

    Any followup comments with DSS looking forward now?
    Nov 27 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chelsea Therapeutics: Primed For An Easy Double [View article]
    You're right. My apologies. I still believe the risks need to be better-highlighted but they are there.
    Nov 26 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chelsea Therapeutics: Primed For An Easy Double [View article]
    Bob, there is a difference between weighing the risks & rewards of making a calculated bet of a FDA approval and just throwing caution to the wind and gambling on a coin flip chance of FDA approval.

    Bob, in all of your articles, you have not once articulated WHY or HOW chtp is likely to gain approval. Sure, if it happens the stock will appreciably spike however you have not explained why you feel it is so certain.

    It has not met FDA's thresholds and it has been rejected by the FDA several times. Add to that the current trials are based on failed trials and that's a recipe for disaster. It may possibly get approved, I'm not suggesting its a lock not to be, BUT please stop hyping it up without justification!
    Nov 26 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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