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wretchedturkey

wretchedturkey
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  • Glu Mobile: More Downside Possible [View article]
    Author, you suggest that "short term long-side traders and investors should consider unwinding their positions. "
    Should people follow that advice, it would be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Your statement is akin to you advising people to sell out in order for you to gain on your short position (I am not suggesting this is the case, but it is akin to that).

    Furthermore, you provide literally no analysis as to the bearish case other than to say the stock is heavily shorted. You state that the guidance was unreasonably optimistic but do not provide any information to substantiate that claim; alas it is a baseless claim.

    Hence, to summarize your article: you believe GLUU is trending bearish due to the short float but at the same time the short float has a low days to cover (which means that the short float is NOT high relative to the float). And you suggest people sell out to follow the rest of the market. Nice.
    Aug 29, 2014. 12:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Overlooked Canadian Dividend Aristocrats [View article]
    Dividend earner, thank you for your article by the way. Yield (both dividend & growth) are an important part of my investment strategy and you have provided me with a more comprehensive approach to analyze dividend yield.

    That being said, do you know of a resource (website, app or otherwise) that discloses the annual dividend growth for stocks? I am only a part time investor, without the proper tools or time to do deeper research on investment candidates, and am unaware of any that exist. Many contributors on SA discuss the virtues of dividend growth rates within their analysis but is there something out there for one to use when doing their own DD with?
    Aug 29, 2014. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Bull Market Real? [View article]
    Roger, perhaps you can define in better detail how to prepare for when 'the other shoe drops' or how to be prepared with 'defensive' stocks.

    If it has already been discussed previously, can you direct me to such an article?

    Thanks
    Aug 29, 2014. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Overlooked Canadian Dividend Aristocrats [View article]
    HighOnDividends,

    That is the precise argument being made by the author! When people look at yield they are looking at current yield compared to the current stock price as at that precise moment. People aren't digging deeper to see the intrinsic yield delivered by the company.

    Meaning, if the yield today is only 1% at today's prices, but should you invest in the stock, then next year the dividend will grow which will not necessarily increase the yield for NEW investors, but for someone already invested, their yield WILL have grown compared to their cost base.

    If a consistent dividend grower's yield is low that means the stock price increased as well resulting in a continual low yield. As such, the author's insight is that low yield does not necessarily mean poor dividends.
    Aug 28, 2014. 04:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Overlooked Canadian Dividend Aristocrats [View article]
    Metro's ticker is not METR.
    Aug 28, 2014. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Johnson & Johnson Is Helping Me With My Coca Cola Investment [View article]
    Author, thank you for the fascinating life lesson you experienced. However, just because JNJ turned out as it did, does not mean lightning will strike twice with your investment with KO. More to the point, if a company has been around over 100 years, does that really mean that the people in charge have been around during that entire span of time!? Companies are not people and do not have feelings or thoughts nor can they take action.
    It is the individuals running the company that make the moves. The real analysis to see whether a company can withstand a downturn in its segment or industry would be to look to its leaders.

    If you feel the CURRENT leadership at KO is equally as competent & qualified as the stewardship at JNJ then I would agree from this 'lesson learned'.

    In either case, thank you for articulating your experience. It was interesting to hear and certainly valuable to think about when considering stagnant investments within one's portfolio.
    Aug 25, 2014. 02:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Rise 2% [View article]
    Spencer, to quote: "The sales progress is good, but we need to see sales at levels 3 to 5 times better than today to see all parties in this partnership happy. The road to that will not be a cakewalk. You simply need to understand that."

    So, when do you personally believe such levels will be reached? Within the next year? 2016? 2017? or 2050? Since you are still long, so obviously you believe it will happen at some point - possibly only once insurance coverage is near-universal? Is that the 'pop' you are waiting patiently for and when you believe the stock will finally be rewarded by the market?

    In short, I wish to better understand your reason for remaining long at this point so that I may have a better grasp of the situation as it pertains to my own investment in ARNA (i.e. am I willing to wait as long as you for ARNA to turn around or do I cut my losses on it and move on?). In this way, I (and other investors) will be able to make a better & more informed decision for our respective portfolios.

    Thank you
    Aug 25, 2014. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BCE Inc.: Moving Ahead Despite Challenges [View article]
    There are actually several "4th player" in the space. However, each up and comer either gets swallowed up or dies out by the weight of the big 3. There has been much rumors of VZ entering but nothing yet.

    The closest thing to a 4th player in this segment that has a market cap of ~1B is probably Videotron but its local to the province of Quebec, not all of Canada. Nevertheless its noteworthy as it illustrates what would likely be needed by a new entrant - i.e. primary revenue streams from alternative sources to sustain a development of its wireless business. Maybe Shaw Communications can join the competition? Anyways, thats my take on this space.
    Aug 24, 2014. 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dividend Growth Portfolio With Canadian Flair [View article]
    However, this is NOT applicable to TFSA accounts... worse yet, for Canadians, the WHT from american companies is withheld and it isn't even helpful for tax purposes!
    Aug 23, 2014. 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dividend Growth Portfolio With Canadian Flair [View article]
    Thank you Adam. I have my eye on some of these names and when I noticed your article title I was eagerly looking forward to a well-researched and fuller analysis of each potential candidate for investing.

    To add to your article - which would you say, in your opinion, are the top 3 of these names that you feel are currently undervalued or fairly valued? And why? You touched upon historical PE for a couple, perhaps you can add to those ideas?
    Aug 21, 2014. 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hertz Rated As Juicy: $37 Price Target, Brand Turnaround Likely In Next 6-8 Quarters [View article]
    By the way, to those out here that are worried about the financial statement fiasco, I just want to say that the 2011 financial statements are irrelevant since we're over 2 years past it. In fact, as an accountant, if I was to see HTZ take a bath for its 2011 (and 2012, 2013 fiscal periods) by hiking the amortization & depreciation expense of that period, then I'm loading up the truck based on how well the 2014 will look.

    For those who are not familiar with accounting, that's how it goes. If a company writes off or impairs its assets in advance then the future is free & clear for purer profits without any hindrances from past capital expenditures (WACC & other metrics improve).

    From an investing perspective, I am interested to see how the market reacts to when HTZ discloses the restated financials. If the markets punish HTZ because 2011 shows a larger loss than before, then I would think that the 2014 results can only get better with writeoffs and impairments tacked on to prior periods.
    If, however, the 2011 restated financials are improved (which would be shocking quite honestly) and the market punishes HTZ then that indicates to me that the market is reading the financials as I have described above - i.e. future financials of 2014 & 2015 will have a more difficult path.

    Conversely, if HTZ is rewarded after they disclose the restated financials, that would indicate to me that the market is relieved this fiasco is over and they can move forward to evaluate the company with "more reliable & factual" information.

    Either way, I'm eagerly awaiting the restated financials to see how HTZ's management & their auditors screwed up so royally and only awoke to this now. What causes a company/auditor to look back 3 years!?
    Aug 21, 2014. 10:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dividend Growth Portfolio With Canadian Flair [View article]
    How did you come up with these 10 names? What were your parameters? You don't go into it AT ALL. There's literally no analysis on some of the companies mentioned. If you wanted higher yield there are hundreds of better names. If you wanted dividend champions, again, there are hundreds of better names.

    I'm so confused as to your rationale for choosing these specific 10. Each warrants being in a portfolio for various reasons but you did not discuss this whatsoever.
    Aug 21, 2014. 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry, But The BlackBerry Passport Is Not Being Panned [View article]
    Thank you guys. I certainly hope the Passport can reinvigorate the market (stock & retail). There is enough evidence to know that BB make superior devices within the context of security & functionality (maybe not the highest quality specs/cameras/etc), but IMO all it needs is the tide to turn on 1 of its products and it can turn very quickly into a new era for the entire line & company.

    If only BBRY had signed Kim Kardashian as a marketing consultant as opposed to Alicia Keys...
    Aug 21, 2014. 09:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry, But The BlackBerry Passport Is Not Being Panned [View article]
    First of all, I used to be long, make some money, lost some money but have been OUT of BBRY for several months.

    Corey, my only counter argument to your article's thesis is that the number of people who positively comment or rate BBRY devices does not translate into mass appeal. The thing here is that you are applying typical rules of statistics to an uneven and non-statistical event.

    For example, typically when one takes a sample size, it is used to extrapolate to a larger population (with a given margin of error, of course). However, I believe you may be setting yourself up (and anyone who believes you) for failure. The reason being that when you took your sample for your research to indicate how many like the BBRY product as a percentage of the total comments - you did not consider the fact that the sample is not extrapolation-able. It is entirely possible that the people who commented positively makes up a very large segment of the population who think positively of the BBRY device, while the sample size of the negative comments is a infinitesimal amount of the true negative comments.

    If history is of any guide here, last year when BBRY was launching the entire BB10 lineup starting with the Z10 & Q10, there was OVERWHELMING positive comments and technical analysis of the devices. However, it unfortunately (for me & other investors & the company) did NOT translate into actual sales for whatever reason.

    So to conclude, my rebuttal to your article is that just because your empirical evidence suggests there's alot of positive comments on the devices, that will not necessarily translate into hard sales.

    To play devil's advocate though, I surprised not to see more arguments along the lines that the BBRY Passport isn't a direct competitor to the Samsung Note series and as such, if the Samsung Note can be successful why not the Passport? Shorts who delude themselves by saying that its "too big" and can't fit in a pocket, clearly are idiot as there are tons of oversized phones & phablets on the market which are selling phenomenally.
    Aug 20, 2014. 12:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cut Qsymia Scripts In Half??? [View instapost]
    *edited oops I see you asked this question in a previous instablog. I don't normally read the instablogs and only came to this one by an advertised link. Oh well, I see many have an interest in this. *

    Maybe my question is silly to those more knowledgeable and who have done the deeper digging but does anyone know what the actual revenue per script is supposed to be? Not the average one but the actual $ per script. I feel like it has been published/disclosed by the respective companies and its public knowledge but I do not recall.

    I ask because I would be much more interested to know of the 138,000 & 111,000 scripts reported, how many were free trials and how many were actual revenue-generating scripts.

    This figure would greatly help one project out sales for when sales traction truly begins (perhaps once Medicaid/Medicare jump aboard or perhaps once these drugs gain true market acceptance by doctors/patients).

    I would hate to find out that the real figure is somewhere around $200/script and VVUS/ARNA's current script figures are irresponsibly inflated by the freebies & trials.
    Aug 11, 2014. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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