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wretchedturkey

wretchedturkey
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  • BlackBerry 10: No 'Killer App,' Investors Lose [View article]
    "Traders accurately anticipate a BlackBerry 10 flop, and ongoing operating losses. "


    That's news to me. If I'm not mistaken, the jury is still out on that one. Claiming it as fact is ridiculous and exposes the bias of the author.
    Feb 16, 2013. 09:37 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digging Into BlackBerry's Cash: Things Are Not As Well As They Seem [View article]
    The author clearly does not get how income tax refunds work on financial statements. IT refunds based from a previous IT receivable can be "one time" and not beneficial for the future. However, BBRY's IT refunds are not of that nature. BBRY's income tax refunds are due to refundable tax credits generated from Canada's SR&ED program.

    The research & patents that BBRY builds are generating IT refunds.

    More importantly - and this is where the author misses the point - BBRY has and will continue to generate significant income tax refunds. Perhaps in the US the only way to generate income tax refunds is by instalments and income tax assets (non-capital assets, differentiation between account depreciation and tax amortization, etc), however Canada's tax system allows companies that perform Scientific Research & Experimental Development (hence SR&ED), to generate significant and continuous tax assets which is pure cash generation.

    IMO, 3billion of patents created in Q1 means more than a billion in tax refunds (~35%).


    Readers should invest in companies that they understand how their balance sheets work.
    Jun 30, 2013. 10:03 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10: No 'Killer App,' Investors Lose [View article]
    I wonder if Kofi has used the "X10" either.
    Feb 16, 2013. 09:58 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Rich From Retiring Baby Boomers With This Little-Known Stock [View article]
    How about his statement "With a baby boomer turning 60 every eight seconds, this segment is expected to comprise 20-25% of the U.S. population in about 20 years."

    In about 20 years, baby boomers will be in the 75-85 yr range in 20 years. Even with life expectancies higher than the past, many will be passing on and new generations will be moving in. In short, the baby boomer demographic is the largest it will ever be right now and will only shrink in 20-30 years.

    Sloppy math doesn't even begin to describe the weak connections and logic displayed.
    Dec 27, 2012. 05:53 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Vs. Research In Motion: Only One Will Survive [View article]
    As commentators have quickly noticed, this author clearly is missing the bigger picture with his US-centric views. There are plenty of markets eager to accept another player or two or 5 in the mobile sphere. Claiming that there is only room for 2 and possibly a 3rd screams of ignorance on a global scale.

    If markets can only handle 2 competitors, then how come the world has over a dozen different car manufacturers, scores of fast food chains, hundreds of apparel brands, etc etc?
    Jan 14, 2013. 01:04 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digging Into BlackBerry's Cash: Things Are Not As Well As They Seem [View article]
    kherman, the income tax refunds were due to SR&ED tax credits. These are NOT one time events. As long as BBRY spends a significant amount of time during research & patent-generation, there will continually be significant tax refunds.

    That being said, the company still needs to generate positive cash from sales to break through the smoke and mirrors.
    Jun 30, 2013. 10:05 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: High Margins Are The Key To Success [View article]
    crest, i wish to argue on several of your points, #2, #3 & #5:

    #2: 1 or 2 year contracts for BB7 would have been long since over and if they would have been switching, they would have done it by now. In my humble opinion, at this point, anyone who stuck it out with BB7 is absolutely going to upgrade to BB10 assuming price isn't an issue.

    In fact, I would argue that as more 1 or 2 yr contracts for iOS or Android complete, we will see more crossovers. Its illogical to think BB7 users will switch to another platform at this point UNLESS they are in the apple ecosystem already (as in your personal case).

    #3: You are clearly only referring to the US. BBRY has been advertising the begeezus out of the Canadian & UK markets. Heins probably was hinting that advertising in the US will show up in Q1 and as a result aggregate advertising will be higher in this Q.

    And why wait until after the launch? Simple - advertising consists of two primary components (a) TV, print, radio, etc etc ads and (b) discounts and sale through credits to the supply chain & ultimate customer. The 2nd component is crucial to entice the US & other countries not already enthralled with BBRY to switch over.

    What this means is that BBRY is showing higher margins because they are accounting for reduced phone prices in their advertising expense instead of their gross margins.

    #5: It is VERY easy to extract this sort of data - it is easily and readily available in the following manner: When someone purchases a phone without previously having a BBRY account or contract. If the name/address/customer # is new, etc.

    This data is very easy to sift through to calculate. Someone upgrading a AT&T or Rogers BB7 plan to a new BB10 plan will not count as part of the 55% that Heins mentioned. However a Verizon or Rogers or whatever iOS/Android using plan switching to BB10 will count. The data is really very easy to extract from the sales!
    Mar 29, 2013. 09:10 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Second Week Sales - Not Bad, But Not Good Either [View article]
    Spencer, you are overthinking things - be patient. Slow initial sales does not indicate poor results. It could be a snowball effect like the beginning of an avalanche or it could be a lasting non-starter.

    Considering that there is a stigma that needs to be overcome in the anti-obesity sphere (and calling obesity a disease is a very good start), slow sales really and truly is not indicative of anything whatsoever.
    Jul 1, 2013. 09:45 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brookfield's Looking-Glass World [View article]
    While I cannot debate the specifics of BAM's financials since I have not read it yet, as a Chartered Professional Accountant I take offense of your tone with regards to the accounting profession and your disdain for the work I do.
    I'll assume that you already know this but I'll state it matter-of-factly for other readers - the accounting standards in the US are different from Canadian as Canada has switched over to IFRS and the US is still running on its own standards. Roddy, obviously to you with US accounting as your background do not agree with how to apply fair values but it is now the norm to run fair value gains through the income statement instead of the retained earnings.

    I would also like to mention that what you accuse as 'dirty accounting by BAM's BOD and the Bay Street banks & others', is actually mandatory by EVERYONE. This is the world of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). BAM's BOD have very little discretion in regards to its accounting of fair values since all values 'recognized' by BAM must be verified with appropriate and sufficient audit evidence - typically 3rd party evidence obtained by the auditors.

    Second, even if you wish to discount or disregard the fair value "gain" - which is certainly appropriate when discussing free cash flow and incremental cash from the operating business (I agree that it is a paper gain after all) - however, the paper gain was only created because there was an even larger fictitious paper loss created previously. And surprise surprise, the fictitious paper loss heavily hit the SP - as it should. What??? A paper loss causing real world share price decreases??? Oh yes. Fair values - in BAM's world are crucial since BAM is an asset manager and generates its revenues from the management and sale of assets. If the fair values are lower then less future revenues, assets are worth more then investors can prognosticate higher future revenues.

    So while I concur that investors need to recognize that fair value gains are not immediate cash generating revenues, however it does indeed have a real world affect as future revenues can be expected to be higher because of it - either through future sales of assets or management fees on these assets.

    But thank you for reminding readers how fair value gains are not cash in today's pocket. That point is certainly vital to recognize.
    Nov 19, 2013. 10:49 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 New Extremely Overvalued Shorts [View article]
    The author discloses that he is already short these stocks. Can you please prove this claim? Which broker? And as others have mentioned CYNK comes to mind...
    Sep 2, 2014. 12:24 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: How $5.3 Billion In Contractual Obligations Affects Acquisition Price, Chances Of Write-Offs [View article]
    But, what people are not really grasping is that writedowns to inventory are hardly a concern for a new purchaser - it is the commitment in itself.

    Writedowns are merely an accounting trick to IMPROVE future margins after reporting results that are not satisfactory. If margins are too low on sales, then write down the inventory with a huge one time write off. All future sales are now accompanied by a LOWER cost of sales (because inventory was already previously lowered).
    But, this is irrelevant for a buyer.

    A buyer only would care about being forced to shell out cash which they may deem unnecessary.


    So to conclude, the market has already priced in the commitments but all this hearsay on writedowns is completely red herring and irrelevant for the investor who understands how a financial statement works and how it affects prospective buyers.
    Sep 9, 2013. 11:52 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 Fail: Now, What? [View article]
    Author, you DO realize the irony is writing this article right? Just re-read your last two and you can see how farcical it is that you jumped to such an extreme.
    Jul 3, 2013. 12:46 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia And BlackBerry Are The Comeback Kings: Really? [View article]
    Precisely! The market was at its infancy then and what BBRY had is exactly what it has now, no more no less. It didn't lose marketshare to Goog/Aapl. They simply took the rest of the marketplace as the marketplace warmed up to smartphones.

    Its shocking that people don't quite grasp how an increasing market is different than an increasing marketshare...
    May 6, 2013. 09:13 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10: No 'Killer App,' Investors Lose [View article]
    jim7373, BBRY's Z10 is available in the US... just not widespread yet.
    Feb 16, 2013. 11:47 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Microsoft As It Could Double Its Dividend To A 7% Yield [View article]
    "It also has a history of doubling the dividend in the past. For example, in 2008, the quarterly dividend was 11 cents per share and thanks to steady increases, it has more than doubled to 23 cents in just about 5 years. "

    Doubling over 5 years is significantly different than doubling in 1 shot. The author is dreaming to think any tech company would be crazy enough to do that.

    All astute tech followers know that the industry can be very fickle and obsolescence for any product is always around the corner. No company would dare chew more than they can swallow for the fear that they may need to rescind such a decision in the future.

    I agree with the authors premise that MSFT could very likely entice investors via dividend growth, but doubling is out of the question.
    Jan 3, 2013. 09:54 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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