Seeking Alpha

wretchedturkey

wretchedturkey
Send Message
View wretchedturkey's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals' Belviq Set To Surge In 2015 [View article]
    Jim, in your opinion, why would the stock give off almost all of its recent gains? And so quickly too.
    Feb 4, 2015. 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Rise 2% [View article]
    Spencer, to quote: "The sales progress is good, but we need to see sales at levels 3 to 5 times better than today to see all parties in this partnership happy. The road to that will not be a cakewalk. You simply need to understand that."

    So, when do you personally believe such levels will be reached? Within the next year? 2016? 2017? or 2050? Since you are still long, so obviously you believe it will happen at some point - possibly only once insurance coverage is near-universal? Is that the 'pop' you are waiting patiently for and when you believe the stock will finally be rewarded by the market?

    In short, I wish to better understand your reason for remaining long at this point so that I may have a better grasp of the situation as it pertains to my own investment in ARNA (i.e. am I willing to wait as long as you for ARNA to turn around or do I cut my losses on it and move on?). In this way, I (and other investors) will be able to make a better & more informed decision for our respective portfolios.

    Thank you
    Aug 25, 2014. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scripts Down, Bearish Article Released, Arena Hangs Tough [View article]
    Spencer, you write "Should script sales demonstrate that the pace is shifting toward $150 million, the equity can, in my opinion, challenge a $10 price point. If sales are more toward $125 million, an $8 price point is likely appropriate. "

    Can you offer us some tangible investment valuation methodology to come up with these prices or is your statement purely your opinion?


    This is not a knock on you, but rather on everyone here (anyone vocal anyways) - ever since the initial investment valuations performed at the FDA approval time-period (which is way too long to go without a new & updated valuation), I find very few commentators and "investors" re-analyzing ARNA from an investment standpoint. Its as if they made a stand on what they feel sales will translate to in share price and they have stuck by it since.

    IMO, all readers on SA (and other insightful investment sites) would be well-served by a revised purely 'numbering-crunching' exercise that re-examines the underlying valuation based on the ENTIRE current environment (not just a shift in the SP yardstick based on gross sales trends). I am not qualified to do so, but I would be very interested to read about it from someone who is qualified to perform an investment valuation on ARNA (& VVUS/OREX as well).
    Jun 9, 2014. 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Reaches Critical Point On Insurance Coverage [View article]
    "There is a mentality of entitlement that has creeped into society. What used to be a safety net for people in rough times (until they get back on their feet) has now become a way of life. People used to try to get off of the freebies as fast as possible. Now people find any way they can to obtain the freebies. That type of abuse hurts the ones that really need the help. "

    There is no greater insight than that. I live in Quebec and these comments ring truer here than you can imagine.
    Feb 10, 2014. 12:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Arena Has What It Takes, Why Is It Down? [View article]
    bigligand, care you throw your hat in the ring?

    ARNA is a pipe dream stock which only interests a select few (lottery-ticket toting investors). As such, not many investors care enough to analyze or discuss it.
    Dec 10, 2013. 08:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Arena Has What It Takes, Why Is It Down? [View article]
    Spencer, IMHO, I think you are incorrect that the problem is that Belviq is like Weight Watchers and other weight-reduction programs. You have stated such several times but without much real explanation as to why one is appropriately comparable to the other.

    IMO, taking drugs are NOT the same. People can start, suspend, re-start a weight-loss program however when one decides to take drugs, then they cannot just stop out of the blue and expect to retake it later on with successful results.

    In fact, I believe the exact opposite will happen: people who have started taking Belviq (or Qsymia for that matter) will continue to take it right through the holidays in the hopes that it will curb their appetite and help them retain or (if overly optimistic) lose weight during the holidays.

    Both of the above theories I believe are more plausible than a simple comparable of weight-loss drugs to weight-loss programs.

    All that being said, in my opinion, I would expect sales to only slightly decrease due to there being fewer days to go to a doctor for an appointment and fewer days to head to the pharmacy to pick up the meds. Otherwise, I would expect sales to more or less maintain its pace throughout the holidays until everyone's schedule gets back to normal.
    Dec 10, 2013. 10:16 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals - Belviq Ad Gets More Creative [View article]
    No offense but a comment like that holds no water. No way to verify the facts nor do you present the full story - perhaps your friend starved themselves for 2 weeks. Did your friend take Belviq or Qsymia or neither? And lets not even judge the fact that this is your first comment on these boards...

    To Longs and shorts, this is red herring to ignore and not base any investment on.
    Oct 17, 2013. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals - Belviq Ad Gets More Creative [View article]
    @engbulldog3, a repurchase program is by far the most destructive option for ARNA. ARNA needs its cash for further studies, its pipeline and other massively critical elements of its company.

    Giving back a couple bucks today to a trader such as yourself will not provide any significant value for shareholders. If you are looking for an immediate bump in the price then you should not be invested in the stock.

    The stock price WILL appreciate BUT ONLY when sales and organic growth occur. Not when superficial and cash-burning magic tricks are utilized.
    Oct 11, 2013. 11:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse Lowers Price Target On Arena, What's Next? [View article]
    The same reasoning goes if you buy ARNA now at 5.00 and in two years it craters or falls flat to 4.00, then where are you going to put your money to lose 20%? Not in the bank! Now might NOT be the time to buy ARNA.
    Oct 1, 2013. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse Lowers Price Target On Arena, What's Next? [View article]
    Spencer,

    What is your professional opinion on the chances of ARNA doing an offering to obtain financing, due to the fact that the milestone payments may be more delayed than originally anticipated?

    In your opinion, do you still feel its best to wait all of this out even though the SP can get hit pretty hard with all this negative wind? Or maybe mitigate this temporary downwind with puts and whatnot?
    Oct 1, 2013. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sales - Pacing Along Modestly [View article]
    Spencer, as Vito's comments have over 30 'likes', while your response has 5x less, it would appear that many other followers of yours would appreciate you adjust accordingly to guide and assist your followers.

    Just like a company may change its guidance and it becomes the new starting point, so too it would make sense to do so in this case, no?

    With respect for Vito's demands to contact the companies - my understanding was that you have and they are not offering any adjusted projections at this time. You are correct that the SP is indicative of the fact that the sales are not following the guidance of management, but my interest now lies - and I'm sure it does for others as well - what happens if sales growth begin to increase at a more healthy rate - would the SP increase because its unexpected at this point or would it do nothing to the SP since higher sales growth merely follows the original guidance set by the companies?

    I'm sure you would agree that a drastic uptick in sales growth would reinvigorate the SP - because its better than the current projections.
    Sep 30, 2013. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Arena Gets Profitable [View article]
    Mojo, the only problem with your argument is that even with spreading the income over the 12 month period instead of the quarter, the company will not end up being profitable. ARNA expenses ~20-30 million / quarter so a 1 time payment of $65M is not sufficient to cover all expenses and make the company profitable.
    Aug 12, 2013. 01:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Arena Gets Profitable [View article]
    I just wish to second steveh's comments.
    Far too many individuals here equate your short term negativity as bearishness overall on the company and Belviq's chances of success. (Truth be told, it isn't even 'negativity' as I think its more of a apprehensiveness for the risk/reward profile in the short term due to current high volatility).

    I'm glad to see steveh so very eloquently elaborate the nuance between ST & LT and why being bullish/bearish in one does not mean being the same in the other.
    Aug 12, 2013. 01:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals Turns Q2 Profit [View article]
    I'm a bit confused here. If management said that scripts were 12,500 and IMS's figures were essentially the same. Why did they say that it may be low by 25%? Are they saying they don't know the actual number of scripts and are simply using IMS's figure to estimate it?

    In a similar vein, why wouldn't management disclose unit sales as opposed to scripts? Scripts is such a convoluted number and offers as little transparency as possible.
    Aug 1, 2013. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Continues Sales Traction [View article]
    How could you say that 'the launch is more modest than many thought' when many dont have a clue what the launch has done since you or they have yet to quantify in sales what a script is (due to the fact that no one knows how often a script gets filled and thus generates an actual sale)?

    Furthermore, you bump the scripts reported by 30% but you suggest that this is merely you doing it (and your revelation for SA readers) and not the Street. Can you prove otherwise?

    Your comments please.
    Jul 28, 2013. 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on ARNA by wretchedturkey
COMMENTS STATS
535 Comments
705 Likes