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  • Another Bad Quarter For MagicJack [View article]
    34340895: I have to agree with you on this issue. they are not spending much on R & D so their system is probably rickety. but my gut feel is since this management is bearly 20 month into the job, Borislow just died last year. and he was a rogue. it needs more time. I am willing to give them one more year, selling at this 125M valuation on a company flushed with 75M cash and no debt doesn't sound very smart. plus they have a record of buying back 95M worth of shares in the last 3 years, at that rate, the share count can fall by 1/2 quickly. microcap value stocks are out of favor right now, this is one of the best value stocks I can find.
    Mar 22, 2015. 01:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece - Why I Went Long When It Was A Dollar [View article]
    again, you are thinking all governments have to balance their books.
    they don't have to if the world has faith in it's currency. which is why the USD is rising despite USA having running trade deficits for more than 30 years. and even as QE is wound down.
    you can say the same things about the unproductive american housing/auto industries just before the lehman momet in 9/2008.
    and just because the US stock market has done well, everybody thinks the US economy is doing great. it's still weak.
    true Greece is underdeveloped economy for various political/geo/cultural reasons. capital flows seems to go in cycles, eventually capital will return to greece simply because the bond yield is so high and it's almost 0 everywhere else.
    17741882 is the most sensible outlook
    Mar 22, 2015. 01:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece - Why I Went Long When It Was A Dollar [View article]
    Marko: after the recap/dilution, don't you think NBG is now a long term investment? not just a ST flip? where in the world can you find a franchise like this for 0.4x book with decent outlook? china, brazil, russia? surely those real estate bubbles will take many more years to pop, with loss ratios rising in those countries
    Mar 22, 2015. 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece - Why I Went Long When It Was A Dollar [View article]
    your ideas are too simplistic, true those who produce food put food on the table for themselves, but in a global financial system based on credit, they still need consumers who have money/credit to buy their goods.
    this is where the chicken and egg conundrum begins.
    Greece has seen severe loss on wages, so even those who produce food cannot sell enough of og their goods
    Mar 20, 2015. 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Bad Quarter For MagicJack [View article]
    just read the 10k with 25% ebitda margin and rising to 29% in 2015! I challenge you to find another value stock with recurring revenue and cashflow with no debt at all trading at ev=1.7 ebitda.

    and cashflow is always higher than op. earnings last 3 years.
    this is a high quality, cashcow.
    even with no growth it's worth 4-5x ebidta, or 11-15

    we might be looking at the bottom in CALL shares right now. go on and short it. you might get yourself lifted by your own petard
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Bad Quarter For MagicJack [View article]
    also, nobody seems to see this is a business model transition from the Borislow days.
    de-emphasizing the magicjack device sales which books sales upfront with a deferred revenue, to a renewal rights service fee model without deferred revenue, this will take 2-3 years revenue will fall but ebidta margin will rise
    and the strong free cashflows will continue in the core business. now the stock at 6.8 is trading at 6x FCF
    is very attractive yield.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ZAGG: A Company To Avoid [View article]
    hope you got your proverbial petard hoisted off Mr. Doyle, holding for 11!
    nothing hurts like a failed short, since the loss can be greater than 100%
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zagg Has A Bright Future Ahead [View article]
    thanks Ross, been in ZAGG for over 2 years now. the big question is how much Gross margin improves.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Bad Quarter For MagicJack [View article]
    the author is too negative and did not see
    Call got hurt by 5 bad unresolved problems. 2 of which seems out of it's control.
    1. Radioshack bankruptcy and being stiffed by them
    2. political problems in Telephonica and slow rollout in Mexico stores
    3. existing network not rugged enough to handle growth
    4. introducing new Magicjack Go with APP still not bug-free
    5. texting app too slow to be implemented

    1. 4. and 5. seems to me within 18 monthes will be resolved
    now nobody seems to notice that
    1.Op inc. increased modestly Q on Q
    2.and with forecasted 2015 13% decline in rev. too 100M, ebidta will only fall by 0.6m!
    3. 20 M buyback will not hurt liquidty at all

    they could do a surprise acquisition or be acquired at 5-6x ebitda ex-cash
    which will be (29x5+50)/15=13 to (29x6+50)/15=15
    5. they could also initiate a regular dividend of 50c/year or 12.5c/q, based on 1/2 of 2014 EPS

    I would much prefer a reg. div. for this cashcow co.
    and this stock at 6.8 is at PE=6 and EV=1.7x ebitda
    the cheapest cashcow stock in the Nasdaq over 50M
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It Might Be Time To Short Zagg - Again [View article]
    wow, another gap up! over 9.5, does seem it want shoot over 11-12 resisitance range. the Hale CEO is doing the right things despite the huge flop in iphone gaming device.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short The National Bank Of Greece [View article]
    anyone check the debt to GDP of thailand or any of the asian financial crisis countries after 1998? in general debt levels never falls, it just keeps rising as the global montary system functions on credit. only the currencies fall.
    here, eventually greek economy will grow and the debt to gdp will not even be anyones worry
    Mar 17, 2015. 05:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greek Share Market: Poised For Significant Gains, After The Situation Calms Down [View article]
    brilliant! Man, anyone can recount the scenarioes
    Mar 17, 2015. 05:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short The National Bank Of Greece [View article]
    You are correct to say this situation is unprecedented, but previous Asia financial crisis can give you some baselines. But since the Euro is the second biggest reserve currency now. The ECB has even greater pressure to keep greece inside the euro,
    than the little central banks of Thailand, indo, s. Korea, and Malay to keep their banks from insolvency in 1997-8, because the consequences of. Grexit is Lehman x 10
    This bet on NBG is substantially a bet on no grexit, ...... Odds are good here for the longs
    Mar 12, 2015. 02:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short The National Bank Of Greece [View article]
    This situations seems like the classic contrarian bet, the stock of the systemically important bank/utility/oil/ telecom company in a country whose economy that is on the verge of long term recovery from a depression,
    that is trading at 0.4x book, and has been fully recapitalized.
    Mar 12, 2015. 02:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Liquidity, Not Capital, Is The Main Concern [View article]
    you could have said that for BAC, AIG, many many regional banks with "America" in it's name and didn't get taken over by FDIC. but NBG is even more systemically important than BAC, it's a national symbol that has survived many rounds of capital raising already. and GDP is finally turning positive in 2014
    Mar 10, 2015. 04:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment