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julenzi

julenzi
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  • Argentina Is Replaying Another Inflationary Collapse [View article]
    Sounds nonsense but it happened with beef and wheat for example... We've got export taxes as well...
    Feb 19 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentina Is Replaying Another Inflationary Collapse [View article]
    What you say about YPF and CRESY is already happening, it's the way people who can access to the market is getting dollars for less than the black market or to take dollars out from Argentina, but it had happened for years.
    YPF expropriation is fully priced in, don't see a reason to short it, to be honest I'm long YPF even it had it dividend cut.

    AGRO to be honest I don't know the stock, but from what I just read CRESY is more on less on the same business.
    From my point of view you can benefit from inflation when you can price in your cost increase. As these companies sell "food" it will be hard that the government will allow those price increases, it already happened with beef and wheat. Remember that our poverty base is high, where inflation hits harder..., the government won't allow price increases, it already happened with beef and wheat markets. A totally different story is with soy, because we don't consume it...

    You're right when you say that is silly to sell land for Pesos, that's the reason why the Construction market declined.
    Feb 18 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentina Is Replaying Another Inflationary Collapse [View article]
    Depends..., if you're planning to buy an apartment or a house, I think there's not expropriation risk. If you plan to buy to get a rent from it, remember that you'll get pesos so remember our inflation (three years contracts, you can stipulate increasing amounts year after year, let's say 20% but what happens if the inflation is 24% or more?) and you'll have to buy dollars in the black market..., no way to get your rent from a bank transfer...). The other risk, it only happened once in our history is to have your rent freezed by law (remember that this government has taken populist measurements before...).
    If you're thinking about land for a farm, NEVER happened before, but what if the government turns to the left (I think it had happened in Venezuela)? I think the probability is near zero, but...
    Feb 18 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentina Is Replaying Another Inflationary Collapse [View article]
    Hi Nicholas, very well written article, I live in Argentina and I couldn't have done it better.

    I agree with you on shorting ARGT but from another point of view..., when MERVAL went up since last November, I couldn't find a reason why, the only changed was the black market dollar going higher..., everything else was more or less the same as you explain in your article, the very same reasons why MERVAL went down March 2012...

    Regarding Real Estate, if you live in Argentina is one of the few investments you can do to keep the value of your pesos... From a dollar point of view I find the dollar per sqr meter a little bit overvalued.

    I enjoyed your article as I enjoyed reading your ABV articles as well!
    Feb 15 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 High Yielding Dividend Stocks Increasing Dividends [View article]
    Syarzhuk, I agree with you...
    Oct 22 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 High Yielding Dividend Stocks Increasing Dividends [View article]
    Hi Arie,

    I wouldn't buy CRESY because of it's dividend. It is an Argentinian company with operations in Brazil, so it's dividend come from Argentina... Too many restrictions to take money out of the country...
    Oct 21 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Argentine ETF Remains Steady, Despite The YPF Plunge [View article]
    Malvinas is not the same...
    Apr 20 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Telecom Argentina: Buying The Dividend - Part II [View article]
    Hi Walter! My English used to be better, so I'll try... I read you live in Santa Barbara, well, I spent some time at UCSB Extension (makes me a Gaucho?)

    When Argentina nationalized Pension Funds, the ANSES (our Social Security Agency) received a portfolio of stocks that where held by them. At that point the number of ANSES' directors was limited by law, but last year (or so...), it was changed and allowed them to have directors proportional to their holdings in each stock.

    The graph in the article shows the companies ordered by ANSES %, and then shows their income ($ ARS).

    The article says that the government is in talk with the management of the companies where ANSES has a position so not to distribute dividends and reinvest that money in the companies. The target is to fight inflation and not to let that pesos run into dollars.

    Argentina is trying to secure reserves at the Central Bank, so there are lots of limits to imports, restrictions to buying dollars to the public (now, I you want to withdraw money from an ATM outside Argentina, you must have the dollars in your account). Banks that wanted to distribute dividends (such as BMA, BFR) weren't able to do it because of new Central Bank regulations on capital...

    Now I´m guessing, but I think that you won't hear companies declaring dividends for a while...

    Apr 4 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 High-Energy, High-Yield Dividend Stocks [View article]
    Hi D4L!

    I would add Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-B) to your list an integrated global player with good yield and I find it fairly valued.
    Apr 4 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Champions Smackdown XXV [View article]
    David,

    I really like your articles, they are very useful as a starting point for research.

    I am long some of the companies in your list.
    Apr 4 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Common Stocks Held By Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    SDS, BUD merged with InBev, I don´t remember what year, maybe that's the reason why you couldn't find the information.
    Apr 4 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Common Stocks Held By Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    Sorry, didn´t mention it... Long all of them!
    Apr 4 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Common Stocks Held By Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    I agree on your list, I would add INTC, MDT and some international companies such as AZN, DEO, NESN.VX, UL (I prefer it rather than UN)
    Apr 3 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Telecom Argentina: Buying The Dividend - Part II [View article]
    Hi Walter!

    Nice article! Just for the record Pagina 12 isn´t a business journal, take a look at El Cronista (http://www.cronista.com). Today there was a news saying that the Government is trying to stop every dividend payment.

    http://bit.ly/HGm7UB
    Apr 3 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gas Up Your Portfolio With Transportadora De Gas Del Sur S.A. [View article]
    Hi manya05,

    I agree with you it happened with Banking dividends, where Capital required AFTER dividends was raised to 20% by Argentina's Central Bank, guess how many banks will pay dividends...
    It is said that YPF is going to be nationalized, I don't think they'll reach that point but guess what..., Government voted against dividend distribution...

    Regarding TGS, it is a very good company, but it works in a regulated market.
    Feb 6 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
64 Comments
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