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willygriff

willygriff
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  • Tonix Pharmaceuticals: Four Data-Based Valuations Of A Deeply Underappreciated Pharmaceutical Company [View article]
    Jeff, Marc, Dale, and all,

    I'll concede the point on population, as Jeff's interpretation is as valid, but more intuitive than mine, I shouldn't have undermined it.

    There is absolutely an interpretation of the 50% statement that supports what I'm saying, that both estimated populations are mutually inflated and therefore the middle shouldn't count, but there is no reason to take my interpretation over the more intuitive reading you all take.

    I was just having fun with numbers to bridge the gap, and seem to have outsmarted myself in the process. I suppose the weakly established PPS I suggested ought to be raised to $16.50 to account for this.

    Jeff, all your points are well taken. This was a great article, and has spurred great discussion.

    Long, strong, donkey kong.
    Apr 22, 2015. 07:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix Pharmaceuticals: Four Data-Based Valuations Of A Deeply Underappreciated Pharmaceutical Company [View article]
    it's not that sophisticated Marc, I just took his numbers and made multiplications and divisions as suggested by the comments.
    I'll respond to Jeff's comment below regarding the population size.

    For example, in another comment, Jeff responded to another user, if the pill has to sell at half price ($7.5) to avoid tier 3/get payers, cut the value in half. So I did. What I was doing was simply taking reasonable user comments, people who buy in the market, and adding them up to show how the market could reasonably be taking a far more conservative approach and coming to a more conservative estimate. Crowdsourcing the reasonable comments. pseudo bayesian. now i'm really making things up.
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix Pharmaceuticals: Four Data-Based Valuations Of A Deeply Underappreciated Pharmaceutical Company [View article]
    Jeff, reading through the comments, it seems your conservative model is indeed reasonable with some adjustments in assumptions for justifying the share price right meow. I'm long and looking forward to price appreciation, but also think it's reasonable that we're sitting closer to $10 than $50. Changing some numbers but using your model, allow the following:

    - $7.50/pill.

    - I'm not so sure on why you concluded that 3 groups of 4.25 million patients best represents the market, though I welcome your attempts to be conservative. Seems, even using your numbers, that if there are estimated 8.5 million PTSD patients, and that the 50% sharing justifies an 8.5 million population of fibro patients, if 50% overlap EACH WAY/BOTH WAYS to create the 8.5 million population figure, then there are 4.25 million each with an essentially 50% ambiguously diagnosed population propping the totals of each estimated population up. I think simple algebra reveals this.
    Imagine (Est# fibro)=(real#fibro) + (50%Est#PTSD) and
    (Est#PTSD)=(real#PTSD) + (50%Est#Fibro)
    where we are assuming the statement Est#PTSD=Est#Fibro=8.5...
    You'll get real prescribable populations of each at 4.25 million, which essentially says the people that score for both fibro and PTSD are double counted for each estimate. So I think that PTSD/fibro population of 4.25 million gets eliminated. Another way to think about it is a venn diagram where both circles have an area of 8.5 and overlap each other exactly half way each. The overlapping middle is 4.25 but shouldn't be counted because people will be prescribed for one indication or the other and only get one 102 prescription.

    -In my opinion, partnership/production cost is accountable at this time, but success is not(which you've accounted for). So working with the 60% figure discussed, we'll discount a further 40%.

    -Finally the share count of 19.5million.

    If I do all of this, (2 markets worth $180 mill each with the pill price dropped to $7.5, worth 60% of value because of partnership/production, divided by total shares) which based off your responses to comments is not too far off the mark for each point made, I get a much more conservative analysis pricing shares at a little above $11. Just thought it would be interesting to tinker with the model with all reasonable comments even in light of your generous attempts at staying conservative.
    Apr 21, 2015. 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix Pharmaceuticals: Four Data-Based Valuations Of A Deeply Underappreciated Pharmaceutical Company [View article]
    april 1st april fools
    Apr 21, 2015. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Biotech Names For 2015 [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1aWeH1i
    Apr 13, 2015. 12:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quicksilver Resources: Should I Stay Or Should I Go? [View article]
    If I were a shareholder looking to get some recovery out of things I would sell now, wait for BK filing when the stock will almost certainly go sub penny, buy back as many shares as you can with half of the money you got from selling ASAP. wait for potentially good news or good news from a lawsuit to 3x-4x or more the price from sub penny, sell and say good bye to a poor investment.
    Feb 24, 2015. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quicksilver Resources: Should I Stay Or Should I Go? [View article]
    To * the Lone pine resources section, where shareholders got absolutely hosed for reasons I cannot cover in comment (I should know, I was part of a minorly successful shareholder lawsuit), the bankruptcy proceedings were entirely Canadian, and were only rubber stamped by US courts through Ch 15. The CCAA is a practically the wild west of bankruptcy code, almost on purpose so as to provide flexibility, and shareholders ought to be wary. Closure is swift enough and expensive enough to preclude a good defense for all but the most well endowed shareholders. there is almost certainly no light at the end of the tunnel. One only has to look at the macro environment. There are assets everywhere up on the block for firesale. Why would anyone take yours for enough money to give you a return?
    Feb 24, 2015. 06:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Biotech Names For 2015 [View article]
    ? a dilution? I don't know what you're talking about. Do you mean a secondary offering? That is out of the question. The company is likely diluting through the selling of Lincoln Park shares with some routine, though to what extent, it's unknown. Please make sure you understand the situation your investment it in. This is a speculative stock with questionable financials, but a whole lot of upside if potential revenue from market ready and soon to be market ready products pan out. Many thought this day would never come http://bit.ly/1Ah3pxl
    Feb 21, 2015. 09:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Elite Pharmaceuticals Is Well Positioned To Address $7B Abuse Deterrent Opioid Market [View article]
    I tend to think low end too, just preparing for worst. I think there's more to the mikah deal that you all see. Executed jan 28, stock starts popping jan 29. Why now? What's Nas going to do with whatever assets were left to liquidate?

    Also curious to see quality and extent of facility improvements/expansions
    Feb 17, 2015. 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elite Pharmaceuticals Is Well Positioned To Address $7B Abuse Deterrent Opioid Market [View article]
    questions I have after today's 10-Q and ADT guidance:

    mikah agreement terminated. hakim credit extended. mikah assets liquidating. why? what's going to happen?

    legal fees increasing... is this related to precision dose arbitration or ADT work

    hope to get color on isradipine sales

    need an estimate on P3 costs. 150 people could be anywhere from $5-15 million but I'd really need protocol details to learn more.

    I'm curious if dosing should be done mid-may why we won't submit til Q3

    Congrats Matt on supplying the facts. We did indeed need an efficacy as was suggested as a possibility and it is indeed brief. in 2014 Nasrat anticipated NDA approval in August of 15. Early 2016 isn't bad, I look forward to the P1 and withdraw data being reported late Q1 or Q2.
    Feb 17, 2015. 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elite Pharmaceuticals Is Well Positioned To Address $7B Abuse Deterrent Opioid Market [View article]
    OMG Doug, no one has said they are NET profitable, our point is that the company is profitable when not spending loads on R&D for the line of ADTs. I quoted the part of what you said that is false. 99% of operating expenses ARE NOT funded by dilution etc. This company has growing revenues, you fail to mention the novel sale which is in no way dilution or credit for $5million. Where do you come up with 99% of operating expenses in 10Q being from credit line or dilution? And You fail to mention the Hakim credit line is quite possibly the most bullish management signal/alignment with shareholders you can have.

    Everyone is aware they draw from LPC funds and dilute. The dilution so far has been trivial, and dilution is not necessarily a bad thing when it aids in value creation beyond the PPS devaluation.
    Feb 3, 2015. 08:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elite Pharmaceuticals Is Well Positioned To Address $7B Abuse Deterrent Opioid Market [View article]
    Ya, dear Matt, next time, please anticipate and address each and every person's level of understanding and interpretation of facts, reality and significance. Your next article needs to be at least 20x as long, or it will hardly be regarded as thorough and balanced.
    Feb 3, 2015. 08:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Elite Pharmaceuticals Is Well Positioned To Address $7B Abuse Deterrent Opioid Market [View article]
    succinctly make your point Doug in case I missed it. Nothing you just said is counter to anything I've said. If I've got 2+2=4 I don't need 1+1+2=4 I've only listed the strong possibility that BP will use their leverage to delay or stop AD only legislation until they've got a firm grasp on the market. Of course they have ample reason to acquire/develop such satisfactory AD formulas themselves and make that the ONLY market! And I'm well aware of changing sudafed rules with meth and BPs reactions, though. I'm from Missouri, perennial meth capital of the world....

    I have stated my questions/concerns before publicly and to people I feel have as good or better a grasp on the issues as I. I'm not assuming you haven't done research, I'm assuming you're a troll, or an annoying incompetent at this point. Please, I beg of you, instead of asking questions, be forthcoming and point out what I'm missing that is relevant to the thesis that ELTP is a worthwhile speculative investment at this price.

    Or just shut up.
    Feb 3, 2015. 08:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elite Pharmaceuticals Is Well Positioned To Address $7B Abuse Deterrent Opioid Market [View article]
    "What worries me is that 99% of their operating expenses are funded by dilution and credit" Doug, you said this. This is 100% false.
    Feb 2, 2015. 07:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elite Pharmaceuticals Is Well Positioned To Address $7B Abuse Deterrent Opioid Market [View article]
    Now we know your spewing bull. Can't believe I've bothered with you. Just plain false. Learn to read a 10-Q....
    Feb 2, 2015. 07:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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