Emerald's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/54026/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/167766-wednesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-723511 723511 Wed, 21 Oct 2009 10:57:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167154-the-end-of-easy-oil?source=feed#comment-720590 720590 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 11:39:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/165727-bond-etfs-winds-of-change-begin-to-swirl?source=feed#comment-710437 710437 Fri, 09 Oct 2009 11:39:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/165667-friday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-710428 710428

On Oct 09 07:01 AM Diogenes of Sinope wrote:

> Some lip service for the US Dollar, a pull back in commodity prices,
> but stocks hanging tough.
>
> In the world of fantasy....
>
> Nobel Peace Prize 2009-- Barak Obama--for his outstanding accomplishments
> in....? National debt? Declining US influence? America reverting
> to the mean?
>
> Previous American Nobel Peace Price recipients:
>
> Al Gore: for bringing attention to global warming at a time of global
> cooling.
>
> Yassar Arafat: for walking away from a US brokered final peace deal
> that gave the Palestinians everything they wanted except the destruction
> of the state of Israel.
>
> Jimmy Carter: for brokering a deal with the North Koreans to halt
> their nuclear program, a few years before they developed nuclear
> weapons.
>
> Stop the world I want to get off.]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 11:32:11 -0400

On Oct 09 07:01 AM Diogenes of Sinope wrote:

> Some lip service for the US Dollar, a pull back in commodity prices,
> but stocks hanging tough.
>
> In the world of fantasy....
>
> Nobel Peace Prize 2009-- Barak Obama--for his outstanding accomplishments
> in....? National debt? Declining US influence? America reverting
> to the mean?
>
> Previous American Nobel Peace Price recipients:
>
> Al Gore: for bringing attention to global warming at a time of global
> cooling.
>
> Yassar Arafat: for walking away from a US brokered final peace deal
> that gave the Palestinians everything they wanted except the destruction
> of the state of Israel.
>
> Jimmy Carter: for brokering a deal with the North Koreans to halt
> their nuclear program, a few years before they developed nuclear
> weapons.
>
> Stop the world I want to get off.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155259-wednesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-707154 707154 Wed, 07 Oct 2009 12:42:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164596-reits-whimper-after-relatively-strong-year?source=feed#comment-702964 702964 Sun, 04 Oct 2009 18:50:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164191-bank-of-america-s-lewis-goes-packing?source=feed#comment-698485 698485
I'm still waiting for the givebacks from the former CEO's of Merrill, Citi, Lehman, Countywide and Bear Stearns. Meanwhile the crazy cable guys are ranting against our elected represenatives and telling us the world is coming to an end. Rarely a word against corporate socialism where the taxpayers eat the losses. Sad


On Oct 01 10:05 AM HBWOW wrote:

> How can our "government" let Lewis walk (or run) away with his pockets
> full of our money. No prosecution, no payback of ill gotten
> gains, no jail - white collar crime again goes unpunished ?????!!!!!!]]> Thu, 01 Oct 2009 10:50:36 -0400
I'm still waiting for the givebacks from the former CEO's of Merrill, Citi, Lehman, Countywide and Bear Stearns. Meanwhile the crazy cable guys are ranting against our elected represenatives and telling us the world is coming to an end. Rarely a word against corporate socialism where the taxpayers eat the losses. Sad


On Oct 01 10:05 AM HBWOW wrote:

> How can our "government" let Lewis walk (or run) away with his pockets
> full of our money. No prosecution, no payback of ill gotten
> gains, no jail - white collar crime again goes unpunished ?????!!!!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164252-6-strategies-to-use-in-rebuilding-your-etf-portfolio?source=feed#comment-698445 698445 Thu, 01 Oct 2009 10:31:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163903-obama-is-losing-with-healthcare-reform?source=feed#comment-696910 696910
I agree thee is no free lunch and the cost of heath care will keep rising until companies lower benefits to their employees or simply say here is $5,000 a year and go buy your own policy. Maybe then voters will wake up and throw the bums out.]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 11:53:56 -0400
I agree thee is no free lunch and the cost of heath care will keep rising until companies lower benefits to their employees or simply say here is $5,000 a year and go buy your own policy. Maybe then voters will wake up and throw the bums out.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164011-market-outlook-bill-gross-has-it-exactly-right?source=feed#comment-696888 696888 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 11:39:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163886-time-to-switch-from-corporate-bonds-to-equities?source=feed#comment-696862 696862 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 11:18:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162249-bond-expert-friday-outlook?source=feed#comment-682839 682839 Fri, 18 Sep 2009 15:10:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162187-it-s-time-to-sell-equities-and-look-to-these-3-areas?source=feed#comment-682813 682813

On Sep 18 12:06 PM Ad Orientem wrote:

> I am an advocate of long term investing and I am inclined to a slightly
> modified form of the late Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio. (See
> my insta blog.) That said I tend to concur with this assessment.
> If you have made money in the huge rally since March, (or even if
> you haven't) it's time to take some profit and reduce your exposure
> to equities. There is no historical precedent for this kind of a
> rally (without a steep sell off at the end of it). The fundamentals
> simply do not justify a near 60% run up in the equity markets in
> six months. Just as the market was broadly oversold in March, so
> it is overbought now.
>
> If you are over-weighted in equities you need to lighten up and reduce
> your exposure. I like cash, conservative bonds and gold. Both cash
> and bonds are short term only though as there is more than whiff
> of looming inflation in the air. Gold is in a long term bull market
> that will continue for the foreseeable future with the caveat that
> there will of course be occasional dips.
>
> I would not buy any bonds with more than a 2 year maturity. The risk
> level is too high. And to be frank the bond market is a little pricey
> right now too. Bond yields are at historic lows along with interest
> rates. A better move for those seeking some bond security might be
> to look outside the United States. Adding some foreign debt to your
> bond holdings can help diversify your portfolio and reduce the risks
> from inflation. I like Japanese, Australian and Swiss currency denominated
> government or very high grade private bonds. If you want to add a
> little speculation you can buy some Brazilian bonds. With the weakening
> dollar these securities will likely out-perform the US bond market
> in the intermediate future.
>
> Bottom line though is that I think no one should have more than a
> third of their aggregate portfolio in equities for a while. To the
> extent you do own equities stay conservative.]]> Fri, 18 Sep 2009 14:52:29 -0400

On Sep 18 12:06 PM Ad Orientem wrote:

> I am an advocate of long term investing and I am inclined to a slightly
> modified form of the late Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio. (See
> my insta blog.) That said I tend to concur with this assessment.
> If you have made money in the huge rally since March, (or even if
> you haven't) it's time to take some profit and reduce your exposure
> to equities. There is no historical precedent for this kind of a
> rally (without a steep sell off at the end of it). The fundamentals
> simply do not justify a near 60% run up in the equity markets in
> six months. Just as the market was broadly oversold in March, so
> it is overbought now.
>
> If you are over-weighted in equities you need to lighten up and reduce
> your exposure. I like cash, conservative bonds and gold. Both cash
> and bonds are short term only though as there is more than whiff
> of looming inflation in the air. Gold is in a long term bull market
> that will continue for the foreseeable future with the caveat that
> there will of course be occasional dips.
>
> I would not buy any bonds with more than a 2 year maturity. The risk
> level is too high. And to be frank the bond market is a little pricey
> right now too. Bond yields are at historic lows along with interest
> rates. A better move for those seeking some bond security might be
> to look outside the United States. Adding some foreign debt to your
> bond holdings can help diversify your portfolio and reduce the risks
> from inflation. I like Japanese, Australian and Swiss currency denominated
> government or very high grade private bonds. If you want to add a
> little speculation you can buy some Brazilian bonds. With the weakening
> dollar these securities will likely out-perform the US bond market
> in the intermediate future.
>
> Bottom line though is that I think no one should have more than a
> third of their aggregate portfolio in equities for a while. To the
> extent you do own equities stay conservative.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161830-but-cash-is-earning-zero?source=feed#comment-679603 679603 SHY) and short term investment grade bonds, although slightly more risky, work as cash substitutes for me and yield between 1.5% and 2.5%.]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 15:25:50 -0400 SHY) and short term investment grade bonds, although slightly more risky, work as cash substitutes for me and yield between 1.5% and 2.5%.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161267-10-notes-on-risk-in-the-markets?source=feed#comment-675648 675648 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:12:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161313-etf-trends-9-11-lends-pause-to-market-activity?source=feed#comment-675592 675592 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 09:48:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160211-waiting-for-the-death-of-the-chicago-and-keynesian-schools-redux?source=feed#comment-665327 665327 Mon, 07 Sep 2009 13:27:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160194-for-profit-healthcare-good-for-insurers-bad-for-americans?source=feed#comment-665301 665301

On Sep 06 10:42 PM 4Irish4Ever wrote:

> Your technicalities are people who misreperesent their health to
> obtain insurance while committing fraud and you expect all of the
> honest people who obtained insurance to pay for their fraud. Are
> you saying that those that enter into a contract for insurance and
> misrpepresent themselves resulting in obtaining insurance when they
> otherwise would have been declined should not be subject to consequences
> for this fraud?
>
> On Sep 06 03:01 PM Jeff Nielson wrote:]]> Mon, 07 Sep 2009 13:14:15 -0400

On Sep 06 10:42 PM 4Irish4Ever wrote:

> Your technicalities are people who misreperesent their health to
> obtain insurance while committing fraud and you expect all of the
> honest people who obtained insurance to pay for their fraud. Are
> you saying that those that enter into a contract for insurance and
> misrpepresent themselves resulting in obtaining insurance when they
> otherwise would have been declined should not be subject to consequences
> for this fraud?
>
> On Sep 06 03:01 PM Jeff Nielson wrote:]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158991-master-limited-partnerships-for-your-portfolio-three-key-questions-and-answers?source=feed#comment-653853 653853

On Aug 30 02:24 PM doubtful wrote:

> My question is, what happens after all capital is returned to investors?
>
> or after the reserves, in case of natural resources as example, are
> depleted?]]> Sun, 30 Aug 2009 18:01:51 -0400

On Aug 30 02:24 PM doubtful wrote:

> My question is, what happens after all capital is returned to investors?
>
> or after the reserves, in case of natural resources as example, are
> depleted?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157771-thoughts-on-reits-financials-and-the-u-s-dollar?source=feed#comment-643557 643557
Most REIT's, especially apartment REIT's have hit bottom and have partially recovered. Many have raised equity and rolled over debt maturities. Yes, there is more bad news to come for some real estate companies in 2010, but others can now be bought at a significant dscount to future value. I would buy more REIT's after a pullback.

Anyone shorting the dollar right now is about to get a hard squeeze. Sometime in 2011, we will start to see a monetization of government debt and inflation. For all those waiting or hoping for the demise of the dollar as the world's reserve currency good luck. And wher will people put their money? The Euro, the Yen, the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar? After you. Investing in asian companies is a good long term strategy as is in U.S. based companies with a strong asian presence. Fear mongering is not a good investment strategy Note: Long EQR, UUP. ]]> Mon, 24 Aug 2009 12:13:49 -0400
Most REIT's, especially apartment REIT's have hit bottom and have partially recovered. Many have raised equity and rolled over debt maturities. Yes, there is more bad news to come for some real estate companies in 2010, but others can now be bought at a significant dscount to future value. I would buy more REIT's after a pullback.

Anyone shorting the dollar right now is about to get a hard squeeze. Sometime in 2011, we will start to see a monetization of government debt and inflation. For all those waiting or hoping for the demise of the dollar as the world's reserve currency good luck. And wher will people put their money? The Euro, the Yen, the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar? After you. Investing in asian companies is a good long term strategy as is in U.S. based companies with a strong asian presence. Fear mongering is not a good investment strategy Note: Long EQR, UUP. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156991-citigroup-looks-overpriced?source=feed#comment-636555 636555 Wed, 19 Aug 2009 11:43:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/156837-hedge-fund-holdings-seth-klarman-david-einhorn-marty-whitman?source=feed#comment-636534 636534 LINE), despite the significant increase in share price from the March lows. Also own PVX.]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 11:36:07 -0400 LINE), despite the significant increase in share price from the March lows. Also own PVX.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156269-coming-soon-banking-crisis-of-historic-proportions?source=feed#comment-633024 633024

On Aug 16 09:49 AM John Lounsbury wrote:

> Castle - - -
>
> I also trade (though not in banks at the moment) and I agree with
> your process for trading. You'll note that I did not try to give
> any investment advice here. I will give an opinion on trading when
> I see some technical analysis factors indicating the recent momentum
> (up) is turning. John Paulson has just revealed large positions in
> banks (especially BAC). I don't know if he thinks he is investing
> or trading. The thought has occurred to me that this could be a case
> of pump and dump. I'll ask this question again in a few months when
> his actions will reveal his strategy.
>
> I also hope I am wrong. I don't want to see my worse case scenarios.
> I am afraid that my most likely good scenario (2 -2.5% GDP annually
> over the next few years) will not avoid significant banking pain.
> The ERCI leading indicators are pounding the table for a blowout
> recovery. I am afraid that the ECRI methodology may be failing to
> properly discount the drag of the deflating credit bubble. Government
> and Fed policies are keeping some of the air in the bubble that,
> if it were to escape more quickly, would give a short term shock,
> but longer term would be much more accommodative to healthy economic
> growth.
>
> On Aug 16 07:58 AM castle wrote:]]> Mon, 17 Aug 2009 11:03:43 -0400

On Aug 16 09:49 AM John Lounsbury wrote:

> Castle - - -
>
> I also trade (though not in banks at the moment) and I agree with
> your process for trading. You'll note that I did not try to give
> any investment advice here. I will give an opinion on trading when
> I see some technical analysis factors indicating the recent momentum
> (up) is turning. John Paulson has just revealed large positions in
> banks (especially BAC). I don't know if he thinks he is investing
> or trading. The thought has occurred to me that this could be a case
> of pump and dump. I'll ask this question again in a few months when
> his actions will reveal his strategy.
>
> I also hope I am wrong. I don't want to see my worse case scenarios.
> I am afraid that my most likely good scenario (2 -2.5% GDP annually
> over the next few years) will not avoid significant banking pain.
> The ERCI leading indicators are pounding the table for a blowout
> recovery. I am afraid that the ECRI methodology may be failing to
> properly discount the drag of the deflating credit bubble. Government
> and Fed policies are keeping some of the air in the bubble that,
> if it were to escape more quickly, would give a short term shock,
> but longer term would be much more accommodative to healthy economic
> growth.
>
> On Aug 16 07:58 AM castle wrote:]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156482-rational-market-theory-and-black-swans-in-healthcare-reform?source=feed#comment-632945 632945
How about a true competitive market that is not controlled by lobbyists for Big Pharma and the insurers? People are screaming for capitalism. Me too. Oligopolies are not a fair and competitive market. As an investor, I should be concerned and lok to expoit nuances in the market. As a citizen, I don't like being expoited.]]> Mon, 17 Aug 2009 10:15:44 -0400
How about a true competitive market that is not controlled by lobbyists for Big Pharma and the insurers? People are screaming for capitalism. Me too. Oligopolies are not a fair and competitive market. As an investor, I should be concerned and lok to expoit nuances in the market. As a citizen, I don't like being expoited.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155452-just-how-important-is-ge-capital?source=feed#comment-626578 626578
As long as Jeff Emmelt continues the conglomerate model, not much will change in the slow growth economy ahead of us. Running "green" ads distracts the investor from what is really going on inside the company. Are they an infrastructure company or is it entertainment or finance? All of the above? The stock is not that attractive now that we have had a three month bounce and it's direction is unclear given management's comments.]]> Wed, 12 Aug 2009 10:42:31 -0400
As long as Jeff Emmelt continues the conglomerate model, not much will change in the slow growth economy ahead of us. Running "green" ads distracts the investor from what is really going on inside the company. Are they an infrastructure company or is it entertainment or finance? All of the above? The stock is not that attractive now that we have had a three month bounce and it's direction is unclear given management's comments.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155422-the-market-bubble-is-about-to-pop?source=feed#comment-626525 626525
Over time, the U.S. dollar will weaken as we monetize our large debt. Peter Shiff likes to make dramatic statements to boost his investment firm, but has been an absolutely lousy stock picker. The U.S. has problems and some careful asian stocks will do better over the next five years or even U.S. multinationals. To say we are the caboose is absurd.


On Aug 11 12:06 PM Donald Ingram wrote:

> The world does not revolve around the US, we are not the center of
> the universe. There is decoupling occuring. It started with the amputation
> of toxic assets made in the US of A and has been continuing as can
> be seen when the Treasury sales are shunned.
> The USD is no longer seen as a safe haven, indeed it is now seen
> as a dangerous place to have your money.
> To think that as the US goes - so goes the world, is to put yourself
> at a disadvantage. As Peter Shiff has stated "we are not the engine.
> We are the caboose and we are being cut loose".
> Japan will have company on their road of stagnant deflation with
> little or no economic growth for years, as the rest of the world
> moves on.]]> Wed, 12 Aug 2009 10:23:19 -0400
Over time, the U.S. dollar will weaken as we monetize our large debt. Peter Shiff likes to make dramatic statements to boost his investment firm, but has been an absolutely lousy stock picker. The U.S. has problems and some careful asian stocks will do better over the next five years or even U.S. multinationals. To say we are the caboose is absurd.


On Aug 11 12:06 PM Donald Ingram wrote:

> The world does not revolve around the US, we are not the center of
> the universe. There is decoupling occuring. It started with the amputation
> of toxic assets made in the US of A and has been continuing as can
> be seen when the Treasury sales are shunned.
> The USD is no longer seen as a safe haven, indeed it is now seen
> as a dangerous place to have your money.
> To think that as the US goes - so goes the world, is to put yourself
> at a disadvantage. As Peter Shiff has stated "we are not the engine.
> We are the caboose and we are being cut loose".
> Japan will have company on their road of stagnant deflation with
> little or no economic growth for years, as the rest of the world
> moves on.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154411-3-energy-mlps-for-the-price-of-one?source=feed#comment-619654 619654

On Aug 06 10:42 PM RichardGC wrote:

> OneRichOne:
> I don't know what MLP's you own, but everyone should be aware of
> something called UBTI (unrelated business taxable income) which can
> trigger taxes even in an IRA when it exceeds $1,000 per year. If
> you want to hold a MLP inside of an IRA, or even better, a Roth IRA,
> consider Kinder Morgan (seekingalpha.com/symbo...). This
> pays in additional units, not cash, and avoids the tax issue. Even
> better, you have an ongoing dividend reinvest plan working for you.
>
>
> Disclosure: long KMR in my Roth]]> Fri, 07 Aug 2009 10:25:33 -0400

On Aug 06 10:42 PM RichardGC wrote:

> OneRichOne:
> I don't know what MLP's you own, but everyone should be aware of
> something called UBTI (unrelated business taxable income) which can
> trigger taxes even in an IRA when it exceeds $1,000 per year. If
> you want to hold a MLP inside of an IRA, or even better, a Roth IRA,
> consider Kinder Morgan (seekingalpha.com/symbo...). This
> pays in additional units, not cash, and avoids the tax issue. Even
> better, you have an ongoing dividend reinvest plan working for you.
>
>
> Disclosure: long KMR in my Roth]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153613-reits-face-more-challenges-in-this-recession?source=feed#comment-616221 616221 CT) is selling under $2 a share after selling at $40 a few years ago. Only Equity Residential (EQR) continues to perform reasonably well despite a recent and necessary dividend cut. Current sustainable yield is around 5.5%.


On Aug 04 12:25 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> You have well informed company. Chicago magnate Sam Zell thinks the
> big foreclosures won’t hit commercial real estate until the institutional
> holders run out of money in 2-3 years. From 2000 to 2007, half of
> the commercial properties in the US were sold and releveraged, and
> even the weaker holders have enough cash flow and reserves to last
> until then. Having peaked at a higher top, single family homes are
> now crawling off a much lower bottom, giving a crucial boost to an
> economy based on consumer spending. I’d call this a future green
> shoot, if I didn’t know that the grizzled property pro was talking
> his own book. After completing a brilliant sale of a huge portfolio
> of properties to the Black Rock Group at the absolute peak of the
> market, Sam is now suffering from buyer’s remorse with a turbocharger,
> having rolled the money into the bed ridden and nearly comatose Chicago
> Tribune/Cubs combo. Sam’s favorite overseas foray is Brazil, where
> a large, growing, educated population backed by rich natural resources,
> falling interest rates, and a strong currency provide a great backdrop
> for property investment. China looks good too, but you have to speak
> Mandarin.]]> Wed, 05 Aug 2009 10:56:01 -0400 CT) is selling under $2 a share after selling at $40 a few years ago. Only Equity Residential (EQR) continues to perform reasonably well despite a recent and necessary dividend cut. Current sustainable yield is around 5.5%.


On Aug 04 12:25 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> You have well informed company. Chicago magnate Sam Zell thinks the
> big foreclosures won’t hit commercial real estate until the institutional
> holders run out of money in 2-3 years. From 2000 to 2007, half of
> the commercial properties in the US were sold and releveraged, and
> even the weaker holders have enough cash flow and reserves to last
> until then. Having peaked at a higher top, single family homes are
> now crawling off a much lower bottom, giving a crucial boost to an
> economy based on consumer spending. I’d call this a future green
> shoot, if I didn’t know that the grizzled property pro was talking
> his own book. After completing a brilliant sale of a huge portfolio
> of properties to the Black Rock Group at the absolute peak of the
> market, Sam is now suffering from buyer’s remorse with a turbocharger,
> having rolled the money into the bed ridden and nearly comatose Chicago
> Tribune/Cubs combo. Sam’s favorite overseas foray is Brazil, where
> a large, growing, educated population backed by rich natural resources,
> falling interest rates, and a strong currency provide a great backdrop
> for property investment. China looks good too, but you have to speak
> Mandarin.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153613-reits-face-more-challenges-in-this-recession?source=feed#comment-616199 616199 Wed, 05 Aug 2009 10:46:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153840-increased-pressure-on-rents-is-bad-news-for-apartment-reits?source=feed#comment-616186 616186 Wed, 05 Aug 2009 10:39:23 -0400