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  • Sell in May and Go Away: Good Advice? [View article]
    Fools and their money are easily parted. Let's look at the current economy. Earnings are down and will say down for the next two quarters. Ther is basically no new lending tking place and the velocity of money is down. Deflation rules as companies and consumers deleverage. This bear market rally is based on thin air and no real breath from the pro's. Banks and hedge funds are manipulating the day trading trying to outguess each other. Job losses are continuing and home prices are falling. Commercial real estate will now be the headline and it is downright ugly! Yes, opportunities are available in gold and shorting the long Treasury bond. Stocks can be had for a cheaper price this fall when investors realize the game has changed for the next decade or two and dividend yields must surpass 5% on intermediate bonds for buyers to come back. If you must buy stocks, look at China and the FXI. For myself, I am long GLD, integrted oil companies, Ginnie Mae bonds, inetrmediate investment grade corporates and muni's. Cash is in the SHY (1-3 year Treasuries at 32%). I am also short the Dow, the QQQ and the S&P. Am I talking my book - absolutely.
    May 3 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It) [View article]
    And the big boys on Wall Street will reach out and crush your third world currency and destroy you again. Wher are you going to go that has a semblance of democracy (even imperfect) and a stable currency? Latin America has a lower cost of living, occasional depressions and people who have money put it in US banks in Miami. I guess Costa Rica is your only choice but, again, what currency do you prefer?

    On May 03 10:14 AM Pcatlow wrote:

    > The piece is an interesting and compelling read. I lean more towards
    > the author's view than against.....but, the time-line will be stretched
    > out further.
    > The fact that I, as a Futures trader, am completely out of this market
    > is my lead card in this play. Now, beyond that, my wife and I (childless,
    > retired in a mountain top community, zero debt, and cash heavy) are
    > in the final stages of a major move away from the USA:
    > 1. We will sell our house for whatever it will fetch.
    > 2. We are moving to Latin America.
    > 3. I will trade into foreign currencies as quickly as I can and at
    > the most ripe moment.
    > 4. We will break all ties to the US tax system, since Tax rates on
    > the "rich" (traders, income producers, and titans of industry - -
    > those who make more than a dollar a day (HA!), will see their tax
    > rates beat what we already see in the EU.
    > 5. We will find our health care somewhere else as this will never
    > be solved and the AMA has a complete strong-hold over the industry.
    > Even the last word of my last sentence tells us something (profits
    > from health is counter productive and leads to what we have now:
    > huge insurance premiums, deductibles and we are scared doo-doo-less
    > that a single health crisis will wipe us out---we are in our 50's
    > and the BIG C could kills us in more than one way).
    > 6. We will continue to believe not one word of the Wall Street spew
    > we read every day.....and not one word of the 10Q's and Quarterly
    > reports which contain lies, and misleading data...
    > I could go on and on, but folks the good OLE USA is doomed.
    May 3 11:22 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Rally Is Unsustainable [View article]
    The author is correct. Earnings are deteriorating and fundamentals remain weak. Banking sector is essential to a recovery and banks are crippled; facing more real estate writeoffs and consumer deleveraging. Stock market has "corrected" to the upside and will now give it back over the next three months.
    -Investors can find monthly cash flow in MLP's around 7-10%(KMP, EPD, TPP, LINE) and Ginnie Mae bond funds (4.5-5%).

    -Also consider intermediate investment grade corporate bond funds due to wide credit spreads that will come in over time(5%).

    -Stocks with strong balance sheets will be buys again after the market corrects.

    -A strong short is the TBT (20 year T bond).

    -Cash can be held in SHY (1-3 year T's; 2%)

    Note: Long all of the above.
    May 2 12:48 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday FX View: You’re All Mad! [View article]
    Given the hugh losses awaiting the Eurozone from failing banks and industries and the lack of meaningful central bank powers, the Euro will not strengthen against the US dollar over time. The dollar will weaken due to government issuance but Euro interest rates will have to decline soon.
    May 2 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mack-Cali Late to the (Follow-On) Party [View article]
    All REIT's are not created equal. First, many REIT's are using new stock issuance to pay down bank lines, thereby cutting debt exposure (good), but diluting current shareholders at these low prices (bad). Note that many of the underwriters are using the proceeds to pay down their own lines. Yes, it is disclosed in the Offering Memo, but this is incestuous.

    Second, retail and office REIT's are facing a leasing storm that theatens to take them under given the high tenant improvement costs they face to replace tenants. Many well capitalized apartment REIT's are under pressure from declining employment, but are good buys at these depressed prices, assuming they have taken care of debt maturities for 2009 and 2010. Examples of these better apartment REIT's are AvalonBay and Equity Residential. This sector will also be the first to rebound and pays a dividend to wait. Be careful shorting REIT's via the SRS because it has large apartment REITs in it and is less likely to have big declines from here. Note : Long EQR.
    May 1 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sam Zell: 'Very Few CRE Financings from 2003-2007 Are Above Water' [View article]
    Not really. Many new equity issues note that they are repaying their lines of credit, i.e. the underwriter seels the sticok that repays its own line. Hence, the debt is destroyed and no meaningful equity is created. It's a swap of interests with a dilution of the shareholder as a result. Keep your eye on the moving ball!

    On Apr 28 07:10 PM babajay wrote:

    > Question for everyone or anyone...... Cant the borrowers just keep
    > issuing equity (ala KIMCO) to get out of this mess...? $100 million
    > in equity will pay a lot of interest. The investment banks are starving
    > for business... so secondaries or converts(at the right terms) will
    > be welcome business for them and hedge fund clients. Doesnt this
    > stave off the grim reaper..?
    Apr 29 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TIPS: Good in Deflationary and Inflationary Times [View article]
    Try a Ginnie Mae bond fund where the underlying collateral is guaranteed by the government. Current yield around 4.6% and pays monthly. Some repayment risk but minimal today and some interest rate risk if rates skyrocket. Average duration is effectively around four years to minimize rate risk. Note: Long a Fidelity and Vanguard GNMA bond fund. Also the SHY (1-3 year Treasury ETF) that pays approximately 2% today.

    On Apr 29 09:36 AM oldman wrote:

    > I do consider TIP's a great holding and I own the ETF and an individual
    > bond matures 7/15/16. But these are not for cash flow, which I need
    > at my age (75). where do you suggest for cash flow?
    Apr 29 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fast Money Recap - Is Being Long China Dangerous? (4/27/09) [View article]
    Please remember that Fast Money is another CNBC game show filled with mostly day traders who recoomend a position, but may also sell it at the open the next day. They trade throughout the day so add nothing to your positions.
    Apr 29 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Lightning Round - A Plethora of Fantastic Rails (4/28/09) [View article]
    Stop covering the game show. This is not analysis or insight.
    Apr 29 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Out of the Debt Crisis: Just Renounce It [View article]
    Does "free enterprise" mean allowing the oligarchs of Wall Street to game the system by putting their key people in government positions (The Goldman Sachs revolving door), keeping profits and socializing losses? Capitalism is excellent as long as there is some regulation. Simply blaming Obama and his team ignores the last ten years that strted with Clinton/Summers not regulating derivatives and the Bush team aggravating and expanding this looting. Who do you suggets eats the losses now and how hard a freeze of the financial system is ok with you? The middle class will be the victim either way once the harm is done.

    On Apr 28 11:01 AM Prudent Man CFA wrote:

    > I am afraid this is correct.
    > Why anyone would want to be a partner with Tim Geithner and BHO is
    > beyond me. They are inveterate deal changers and flip flopper's.
    > As Geithner, who as President of the NY Fed was cozy with all of
    > the players (see 4/27/09 NYT) who levered the economy into insolvency,
    > continues to disingenuously state that he "inherited" this crisis
    > that he was a major part in causing I see little recovery in this
    > situation unless Congress gets some honesty.
    > The budget BHO signed and the debt he and Congress has put on generations
    > is theirs. As long as the voters stay clueless (or in denial) of
    > our current fiscal situation and policy the politicians will continue
    > to defer allowing the Free Enterprise System to work it wonders.
    Apr 29 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
    Intermediate corporate bonds, muni's and Ginnie Mae's provide a very nice port in this storm versus cash. Very foolish to try playing in a very unsettled stock market that is being manipulated by "lies" and short term options traders with Cray computers. Using stop losses results in you getting blown out mid day, every day when playing stocks. Wait for the end of the next correction that will come in this quarter.
    Apr 28 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Bonds and Buy Gold [View article]
    Perhaps I will sell bonds, on the other hand buy bonds. Huh?
    Apr 28 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Lightning Round - No to NOV (4/27/09) [View article]
    Wow! "Great analysis" with comments like "I'm going to send you to XYZ stock". This is meaninglesss dribble for the short-attention-span crowd and has no place o SA. Conversely, LINE and NOV are great buys at these low prices and eventual rebound in oil and nat gas. LINE has hedged their inventory through 2012 and it's yield is solid with that income stream. Creamer is nonsense. Note: Long LINE.
    Apr 28 10:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Expert: Monday Outlook [View article]
    The 30 year is slowly rising in yield over the last month and has begun its slow climb in response to deficit spending. A longer term short here ( two years) should be profitable.
    Apr 27 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs with Rising and Falling Long-Term Averages [View article]
    Well done.
    Apr 23 10:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment