Emerald

Bond ETFs: Winds of Change Begin to Swirl

A year ago, many investors rushed to short the long Treasury and got crushed. We are in a deflationary environment with the consumer tapped out and businesses not looking to borrow. I'm in intermediate corporates, governments and munis, but not shorting.

ETF Trends: 9-11 Lends Pause to Market Activity

We are still in a deflationary environment as savings increase and we work off debt over time. Expect a slow recovery. Equities are a little pricey. Intermediate bonds are a good bet for the next six months to one year for yield and safety. Note: Long BND, AGG and 65% fixed income.

Background Info on Leading Bond ETFs

Good overview of an important topic. Many non-sell side analysts are suggesting you stick with bonds and ignore all the Brown shoots out there in the equity market.

Current Markets Picture

Thanks Richard for the wonderful update.

ETFs For Retirement

Vanguard has a decent number of ETF's.

Keeping Portfolios Simple

Excellent article and a great idea for the average investor.

Bogle: Investors 'Getting Killed' in ETFs

I would suggest that readers take a look at "the Lazy Portfolios" that offer a diversified mix of mutual funds (or ETF's) that you only tweak annually. Traders get killed over time. Another good source is the No Load Investor newsletter that offers different portfolios of mutual funds or ETF's from Fidelity, Vanguard, or T. Rowe Price. They rebalance every so often depending on the market ("noloadinvestor.com").

Vanguard's Bogle: Buy and Hold Is Alive and Well

You repeat a commonly held error that equties always outperform bonds over the long term. Recent studies have refuted this so-called fact. Bogle is correct in that bonds should make up an age-related percentage of the average investors portfolio. Given the prospect of rising interest rates in the next few years, I would stick to average durations of six years or less. Note: Long bond mutual funds in GNMA, AGG and Vanguard short term bond with a little TIP in an IRA.

The 'Bond Vigilantes' Are Back

My pick is a combination of investment grade corporates, high yield and muni's. Spreads will continue to narrow for corporates and high yield and tax rates will inch higher (for muni's). I am long accordingly.


On Jun 11 08:15 AM prairiedog555 wrote:

> But what is the pick going forward for fixed income?

Use Conservative Growth to Conquer the Current Market

The fundamentals of this market are negative with narrow trading breath and volume. Earnings are down. Credit spreads ae wide on corporate debt, so I agree AGG is a good bet as are Ginnie Mae bond funds. Common stocks are risky with an impemding correction due to the rapid growth over the last month. Note: Long the above.

Getting Out of the Debt Crisis: Just Renounce It

Does "free enterprise" mean allowing the oligarchs of Wall Street to game the system by putting their key people in government positions (The Goldman Sachs revolving door), keeping profits and socializing losses? Capitalism is excellent as long as there is some regulation. Simply blaming Obama and his team ignores the last ten years that strted with Clinton/Summers not regulating derivatives and the Bush team aggravating and expanding this looting. Who do you suggets eats the losses now and how hard a freeze of the financial system is ok with you? The middle class will be the victim either way once the harm is done.


On Apr 28 11:01 AM Prudent Man CFA wrote:

> I am afraid this is correct.
>
> Why anyone would want to be a partner with Tim Geithner and BHO is
> beyond me. They are inveterate deal changers and flip flopper's.
> As Geithner, who as President of the NY Fed was cozy with all of
> the players (see 4/27/09 NYT) who levered the economy into insolvency,
> continues to disingenuously state that he "inherited" this crisis
> that he was a major part in causing I see little recovery in this
> situation unless Congress gets some honesty.
>
> The budget BHO signed and the debt he and Congress has put on generations
> is theirs. As long as the voters stay clueless (or in denial) of
> our current fiscal situation and policy the politicians will continue
> to defer allowing the Free Enterprise System to work it wonders.

ETFs with Rising and Falling Long-Term Averages

Well done.

Neitzsche or Roubini? Mixed Bag Markets

As we remain in a deflationary environment, I don't see interest rates increasing over the next six months. I do see a curency devaluation on the part of the US and China to revalue assets and inflate their way out of this problem over the next two years The Ye4n and Euro will suffer immensely. Currently long short and intermediate investment grade corporates, muni's and Ginnie Mae's for an average yield of 4.6%. Holding cash in SHY (1-3 year Treasuries) for a 2% cash yield. Stock positions in major oils and MLP's. The future of stocks is in Asia when the USD collapses.

How to Use Bond ETFs

Some of the best bond funds are Ginnie Mae's from Fidelity and Vanguard. Solid +4.5% yields with the underlying collateral guaranteed by the government. "Boring" solid returns with limited risk due to repayment and rising interest rates in tis deflationary emvironment. Agree holding invetsment grade corporates at 6% yields and intermediate munis at 3%. Long all of the above and avoiding the hedge funds and major banks who are manipulating the stock market with endless short term trading and high volatility.

Why Not to Buy Bond ETFs

Useless article. No analysis.