Emerald

Sell in May and Go Away: Good Advice?

Fools and their money are easily parted. Let's look at the current economy. Earnings are down and will say down for the next two quarters. Ther is basically no new lending tking place and the velocity of money is down. Deflation rules as companies and consumers deleverage. This bear market rally is based on thin air and no real breath from the pro's. Banks and hedge funds are manipulating the day trading trying to outguess each other. Job losses are continuing and home prices are falling. Commercial real estate will now be the headline and it is downright ugly! Yes, opportunities are available in gold and shorting the long Treasury bond. Stocks can be had for a cheaper price this fall when investors realize the game has changed for the next decade or two and dividend yields must surpass 5% on intermediate bonds for buyers to come back. If you must buy stocks, look at China and the FXI. For myself, I am long GLD, integrted oil companies, Ginnie Mae bonds, inetrmediate investment grade corporates and muni's. Cash is in the SHY (1-3 year Treasuries at 32%). I am also short the Dow, the QQQ and the S&P. Am I talking my book - absolutely.