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Abraxix

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  • Galena Biopharma's NeuVax Vaccine: What To Know Before You Invest [View article]
    Robert is confused. He does not understand, or chooses to ignore, that Neuvax is a prophylactic vaccine, it is NOT intended to be a late stage cure of heavy tumor burden. In an interview, Dr. Peoples expressed his opinion that the first successful cancer vaccines will be the ones that work with, and improve upon, best standard of care. However, most experimental cancer vaccines, like Stimuvax, have failed because they were trials designed around the magic bullet theory.

    Neuvax is the first prophylactic vaccine. Completely different theories, requiring completely different trial designs.
    Mar 14, 2013. 12:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Hedges, Shorts And Retail Investors - Oh My [View article]
    .....unless you assume that patients will only take Belviq for 30 days. Hardly!
    Jan 30, 2013. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Hedges, Shorts And Retail Investors - Oh My [View article]
    "Good - $12 million
    Great - $23 million
    Outstanding - $30 million"

    I knew you were a bear masquerading as a bull!

    100,000 scripts and you only get $30million revenue? What a joke! At $10 a day, minimum, that comes to $1mm PER DIUM! Multiply that by 365 days and revenues are $365mm PER ANNUM, of which Arena's take is over $100mm!!!!
    Jan 30, 2013. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Hedges, Shorts And Retail Investors - Oh My [View article]
    "What I need is a measuring stick.."

    Okay, I will play. My expectations for blockbuster threshold is $1.1 billion in sales. Backing down from this number with a Fibonacci sequence graph, comes to 6 years.

    However, all bets are doubled if Belviq is approved in combo with phentermine in the next few years!!!
    Jan 30, 2013. 01:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Hedges, Shorts And Retail Investors - Oh My [View article]
    "If you are that certain then you will find it easy to answer the questions I posed to you........ How many scripts are good, great, and blockbuster."

    Okay, I will play. My expectations for blockbuster threshold is $1.1 billion in sales. Backing down from this number with a Fibonacci sequence graph, comes to 6 years.

    However, all bets are doubled if Belviq is approved in combo with phentermine in the next few years!!!
    Jan 30, 2013. 01:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Hedges, Shorts And Retail Investors - Oh My [View article]
    "What "blockbuster" drugs on the market should be used to compare the sales data of Belviq, and what metrics should be referred to ? "

    Should be faster than Valium.

    Diazepam became widely available in 1963 and by 1969, six years later, it was the top-selling pharmaceutical in the United States. Reached peak sales in 1978 with 2.3 billion tablets, so what is that, something like 3 million scripts?
    Jan 29, 2013. 07:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Hedges, Shorts And Retail Investors - Oh My [View article]
    I appreciate your response, Spencer, but disagree that you are not asking investors to hedge their expectations to the downside. Belviq WILL be a blockbuster, I have NO doubt. Its going to take two years or more before it becomes obvious, but it WILL happen. Almost every reference to Belviq that a Google search turns up, gets the drug wrong. Some sites suggest there is an associative valvulopathy or cancer risk (there isn't), many sites get the mechanism wrong, often with comparisons to Fenfluramine, and very few sites understand the health benefits beyond weight reduction.

    When all this fog lifts (your article included), Belviq's value in the pharmacopia will be a clear landmark, alongside other blockbusters like valium, prozac, viagra.
    Jan 29, 2013. 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Hedges, Shorts And Retail Investors - Oh My [View article]
    When Arena was driven down sub-$1.75 a share I bought with the conviction that Lorcaserin--as Belviq was known at time-- would become a blockbuster. If I had followed your strategy of hedging my expectations I would have been shorn of my shares a long time ago. Retail investors aren't as dumb as you suggest.......it is the traders who act on (irrational) emotional impulse.
    Jan 29, 2013. 03:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach Results - The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly [View article]
    Great brand....... I dont own Coach but I can commiserate. Today's sell off was insane and people should come to their senses tomorrow.
    Jan 23, 2013. 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Place, A Bankrupt Xanadu, And Changing Leadership [View article]
    Thanks for your information and perspective. I trust the board is well aware that Trinity is a prize, that the stakes are high, and they better not screw it up. Ettenger may be incentivized to get this one right, after his failed tenure at Mills.
    Jan 18, 2013. 10:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Herbalife; Blyth Is The Real MLM Steal [View article]
    "Will I just get 'Ackmaned' become trader lingo for being squeezed out of a short? Only time will tell."

    How about, "I/he/she was Ackattacked"
    Jan 14, 2013. 12:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Sony Hand Over Fist [View article]
    "Its focus will also be on turning around the TV business? Me no likey. Apple about to enter that market and crush them."

    ....and Apple is going to get crushed by Google/Intel.
    Jan 6, 2013. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Sony Hand Over Fist [View article]
    I got burned by the rootkit problems too and Sony is going to keep falling until the company is broken up, imo.

    The premise of the article is solid, however. If not Sony, what then? My suggestion would be Eisai (ESALY), a first class pharmaceutical company with strength in gastrointestinal products that are vital. Plus, by the end of this year, Eisai should be profiting mightily from partner Arena's weight loss drug. With a pharmaceutical company you wont have the cost of raw material problem incurred by a weaker Yen.

    Disclosure: I own ARNA, not ESALY, but only because there is no options market in Eisai.

    C'mon people, there must be some other Japanese companies that will benefit from a weaker yen.
    Jan 5, 2013. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Fact Based Analysis Of Galena's NeuVax [View article]
    Thanks again Sasquach. I'm wondering if you would share your insight--as a former biotech researcher--into other opportunities? Are there any other compounds that strike your fancy?

    (Immunocellular (IMUC) has caught my eye).
    Nov 23, 2012. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Fact Based Analysis Of Galena's NeuVax [View article]
    Thanks Sasquach. Maybe this is the reason why we were able to acquire the vaccine from Apthera for "only" $6mm--it was cognitive dissonance among biotech scientists (and poseur biologists like Propthink and Adam F.). I think it is safe to say that immune studies will continue to surprise.

    There must be some kind of mechanism at work that keeps some breast cancer survivors node negative while others remain, or become, node positive. If Neuvax pushes the NP's to the disease free column (until nature smartens up) it will be a godsend.
    Nov 21, 2012. 06:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
348 Comments
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