Shopper Beware: Buy Anything At Amazon Except Its Stock [View article]
Hi LTV, i'm confused by your statement that AMZN needs to grow 7x larger to match WMT's size. If you're referring to Market Cap then surely it would only need to double?
My Definitive 17 Cardinal Rules For Investing Success [View article]
Great article. As a relatively new investor I understand your thinking on #13 but this seems to contradict your story at the end of the article; had you simply invested and not taken profits on your 1.7k it would have grown to 470k. I'm defenitely in this camp.... Look for solid and consistent growers and ride the ups and downs. I will take profits when valuation gets excessive and If I have the funds I'll buy undervaluation.
How many times have I read on SA: "had i simply held the stock for X years I'd have been so much better off than trading in and out"?
FEI Company: An Undiscovered Gem Of An Investment [View article]
Hi John,
Thanks for the article. Looking at the projected 5-year EPS growth rate, it sits at 16%. Why in your opinion are analysts predicting such a deceleration in earnings growth (trailing 5 year EPS growth was 40%)?
If the estimate going forward is correct, FEIC appears overvalued. With 16% EPS growth I'd be happy to pay about $45/share.
Also, what do you make of the recent insider sales. According to Finviz insiders have reduced their positions by about 21%.
Shiller PE Continues To Mislead Investors, S&P 500 Is Fairly Valued In Early 2013 [View article]
Chuck,
Great article, I share your views completely. I am in 100% agreement that you can't characterize stocks as "overvalued or undervalued" but that instead you need to take them on a case by case basis.
Thanks for your thoughts Stephen. As I mentioned and as you point out, DXPE does have much smaller margins than MSM. I'd like to see those margins come up; perhaps with larger scale they will.
Overall DXPE does have a higher growth rate and in my opinion a better valuation than MSM.
DXPE has a lot to say about their vending efforts... They've got an entire section of their webpage dedicated to it. I agree that it's a big growth avenue for them going forward.
I am long DXPE but I appreciate your thoughts on MSM.
What are your thoughts of DXPE vs MSM? I own DXPE and my analysis reveals a company that's growing faster and has better fundamentals than MSM. Am I missing something?
Comparing the two companies, DXPE seems the better choice hands down: DXPE MSM PE 13.4 15.6 PEG 0.6 1.42 P/S 0.71 2.04 EPS('13) 57.6% 19.4% EPS('14) 17.59% 12.47% EPS(5yr) 28.1% 13.08% Return(1yr) 42.66% 4.6% Recom. 1.6 2.4
(Data taken from Finviz)
DXPE is a $700 million dollar company whereas MSM is a 4.8 billion dollar company. I also note that MSM does have higher margins than DXPE. I'd really be interested to hear your thoughts on DXPE vs MSM.
The Good News Keeps Coming For Arcam [View article]
I agree about the English reporting. Their company presentation is quite impressive (and they've even got some promotional videos on YouTube) but I'd like to dig deeper into their financials.
One thing I'm a bit fuzzy on is the company's revenue mix. Does Arcam make the bulk of it's money from machine sales or do they have recurring revenue from material sales (metal powders) as well? Are they dependant on selling more systems or will the existing systems and their increased use drive growth?
The Good News Keeps Coming For Arcam [View article]
Hi David, thanks for the writeup on Arcam AB. What are your thoughts on the likelihood of this small Swedish company trying to get off the Pink Sheets and onto the NYSE? At a glance it looks like only about 3500 shares are being traded daily but on a major exchange many larger investors would probably jump in.
Arne Alsin's Investing Themes For 2013 [View article]
Thanks for the article Arne, I've been following your work for quite a while now.
You mentioned that your second theme is homebuilding and infrastructure. Do you have any opinion on Tutor Perini Co. (TPC)? They seem much too cheap at these levels.
10 Favorite Stocks (And Trends) For 2013 [View article]
Interesting article. I own 3 of the 10 you mention including DDD, CTGX and GEOS. All three have been stellar performers in 2012 and I expect strong results in 2013.
I'm a bit perplexed by CIB. Morningstar has the market cap listed as 8.9B while Finviz and Yahoo show it as 14.75B. Why the huge discrepancy? Finviz has 2013 EPS at -39% and a 5-year EPS estimate at about 6%. Do you agree with these numbers and if so why the large drop this year?
I own DDD and you might also want to check out Arcam AB. This is a small 85 million dollar company that produces 3D printers incorporating their patented Electron Beam Melting technology. Arcam is best of breed when it comes to creating precision objects in Titanium. Arcam could very well become a heavyweight in the aerospace field.
The Female Health Company: Play And Keep It Safe [View article]
Thanks for the informative article. In your opinion, what are the barriers to entry in this niche market? What would prevent Reckitt Benckiser for example from seeking FDA approval to launch a competing condom?
It's my understanding that the fantastic numbers the company put out in 2012 were due to order backlog (NGOs and Governments tend to make large one time purchases). In the last conference call the company guided lower overall sales for 2013. FY 2012 EPS was $0.55 and FY 2013 estimates are $0.46. Overall it seems like the company's earnings fluctuate significantly YOY. Do you anticipate any normalization of earnings growth (perhaps if the company acquires more customers) or should investors expect large YOY fluctuations?
Thanks for your comments. This is a company that I like a lot and I began following it earlier this year.
Thanks for the article Alan. I own or have owned many of the names in your list. I'd be interested in your take on EZPW. I was disappointed with their 2013 guidance and I'm not a big fan of Cohen's excessive "consulting fee". Why are you bullish for 2013? Do you have any general thoughts on CSH and FCFS as similar investments?
I'd be interested in your take on the question I posed above... Why is 2012 / 2013 EPS growth triple the projected 5 years EPS growth? Why are 2012 / 2013 anomalies or why is the 5 year estimate incorrect?
Shopper Beware: Buy Anything At Amazon Except Its Stock [View article]
Regards,
My Definitive 17 Cardinal Rules For Investing Success [View article]
My Definitive 17 Cardinal Rules For Investing Success [View article]
How many times have I read on SA: "had i simply held the stock for X years I'd have been so much better off than trading in and out"?
FEI Company: An Undiscovered Gem Of An Investment [View article]
Thanks for the article. Looking at the projected 5-year EPS growth rate, it sits at 16%. Why in your opinion are analysts predicting such a deceleration in earnings growth (trailing 5 year EPS growth was 40%)?
If the estimate going forward is correct, FEIC appears overvalued. With 16% EPS growth I'd be happy to pay about $45/share.
Also, what do you make of the recent insider sales. According to Finviz insiders have reduced their positions by about 21%.
Regards,
Shiller PE Continues To Mislead Investors, S&P 500 Is Fairly Valued In Early 2013 [View article]
Great article, I share your views completely. I am in 100% agreement that you can't characterize stocks as "overvalued or undervalued" but that instead you need to take them on a case by case basis.
Thanks for the insight,
MSC Industrial Hits The Cliff [View article]
Overall DXPE does have a higher growth rate and in my opinion a better valuation than MSM.
DXPE has a lot to say about their vending efforts... They've got an entire section of their webpage dedicated to it. I agree that it's a big growth avenue for them going forward.
I am long DXPE but I appreciate your thoughts on MSM.
Regards,
MSC Industrial Hits The Cliff [View article]
What are your thoughts of DXPE vs MSM? I own DXPE and my analysis reveals a company that's growing faster and has better fundamentals than MSM. Am I missing something?
Comparing the two companies, DXPE seems the better choice hands down:
DXPE MSM
PE 13.4 15.6
PEG 0.6 1.42
P/S 0.71 2.04
EPS('13) 57.6% 19.4%
EPS('14) 17.59% 12.47%
EPS(5yr) 28.1% 13.08%
Return(1yr) 42.66% 4.6%
Recom. 1.6 2.4
(Data taken from Finviz)
DXPE is a $700 million dollar company whereas MSM is a 4.8 billion dollar company. I also note that MSM does have higher margins than DXPE. I'd really be interested to hear your thoughts on DXPE vs MSM.
Regards,
The Good News Keeps Coming For Arcam [View article]
One thing I'm a bit fuzzy on is the company's revenue mix. Does Arcam make the bulk of it's money from machine sales or do they have recurring revenue from material sales (metal powders) as well? Are they dependant on selling more systems or will the existing systems and their increased use drive growth?
Thanks
The Good News Keeps Coming For Arcam [View article]
Thanks for your thoughts.
Arne Alsin's Investing Themes For 2013 [View article]
You mentioned that your second theme is homebuilding and infrastructure. Do you have any opinion on Tutor Perini Co. (TPC)? They seem much too cheap at these levels.
Regards,
10 Favorite Stocks (And Trends) For 2013 [View article]
I'm a bit perplexed by CIB. Morningstar has the market cap listed as 8.9B while Finviz and Yahoo show it as 14.75B. Why the huge discrepancy? Finviz has 2013 EPS at -39% and a 5-year EPS estimate at about 6%. Do you agree with these numbers and if so why the large drop this year?
I own DDD and you might also want to check out Arcam AB. This is a small 85 million dollar company that produces 3D printers incorporating their patented Electron Beam Melting technology. Arcam is best of breed when it comes to creating precision objects in Titanium. Arcam could very well become a heavyweight in the aerospace field.
Regards,
The Female Health Company: Play And Keep It Safe [View article]
It's my understanding that the fantastic numbers the company put out in 2012 were due to order backlog (NGOs and Governments tend to make large one time purchases). In the last conference call the company guided lower overall sales for 2013. FY 2012 EPS was $0.55 and FY 2013 estimates are $0.46. Overall it seems like the company's earnings fluctuate significantly YOY. Do you anticipate any normalization of earnings growth (perhaps if the company acquires more customers) or should investors expect large YOY fluctuations?
Thanks for your comments. This is a company that I like a lot and I began following it earlier this year.
Regards,
My Top 20 Picks To Start 2013 [View article]
Regards,
Don't Just Go To Jared, Invest In It [View article]
Thanks for bring this obscure company to my attention. That truly is one of the fortes of FastGraphs; the ability to find little gems like SIG!
Merry Christmas and happy holidays!
Amdocs Offers Long-Term Opportunity [View article]
Regards,