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  • Pan American Silver Looks Like A Buy Here [View article]
    Georgea_ The author made it clear his/her opinion was based on an increase in the price of silver..."good way to gain exposure to the price of silver". Not unreasonable to assume we will see an Ag price double that of today. With a current silver/gold ratio of 74 to 1, it would take very little increase in investor demand to pull that ratio down to a more reasonable 50 to 1.

    Was your comment on Argentina in reference to the monster deposit at the Navidad? If so, I believe it is fact that that potential mine is not priced into PAAS share price as a positive. Hasn't been since buying it several years ago. Following the election news out of that country, it seems possible that project could come back to life in a hurry. With a large stash of cash and growing reserves, what is not to like about this company? A little risk can sometimes bring big rewards..that is the case here IMO.
    Jun 13, 2015. 12:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Did Silver Standard Resources Acquire A Small Stake In Golden Arrow Resources? [View article]
    SimpleDig_ Thanks for tracking the Arrow and especially for this write-up. From what little I find on the subject, the upcoming Argentine elections should result in a much more friendly mining environment. If true, SSRI might be feeling in a rush to tie this deal up before others join the hunt.
    Jun 13, 2015. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hecla Mining: It's About The Future Not Current Silver Prices [View article]
    Christopher_ You nailed it! Great appraisal of Hecla's future and the price of silver damage to current earnings. Thanks
    May 8, 2015. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Operational Improvements, Coeur Mining Looks Like A Risky Investment [View article]
    Azinsd_Good comment. Damn the history others look to repeat, Coeur has taken the opportunity to invest in the future when the PMs rebound. SD's comment is also good as it fills in some of what will cause a CDE profitably explosion when projects come together.

    I think the author relies far too much betting that there will be a substantial rate increase and that there will be a headwind facing the PMs. It is more likely a crosswind will come into play. Opinions on this huge question are all over the board with reputable economists. For sure, there are few who see a significant bond rate increase anytime soon that would make bond buyers see real interest earnings gains.

    As far as the silver "surplus", this is likely a myth as attempts quantify the real physical supply/demand figures are masqueraded by the huge paper derivatives levered against the small amount of visible metal in the market. We will eventually see how this all pans out. For sure many will have egg in their face.
    May 5, 2015. 01:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Pan American Silver Is A Stock To Avoid [View article]
    V-I_ Your whole premise seems to be anchored to your belief that there is a growing surplus of silver to keep the price down. Your thought process has a few discrepancies. The first is that demand for Ag will lessened due to a raise in interest rates and resultant rush to "interest earning" bonds. That increase in rates per-supposes that the economy (US) is growing...not contracting as you suggest. More importantly, the USA is not the world market. Europe and Asia is the true silver market. Nothing I read suggests that people and companies in those countries will rush out of PMs to buy US bonds which yield "income", be it only equal to inflation.

    Linking silver price (surplus) to industrial demand is suspect as ~70% of mine production comes in the form of a bi-product of other metals. A stagnated world economy will hit hard on the base metal bi-product production, perhaps to the extent any further metal price decrease will result in a pull back in mine output for these metals and that silver bi-product. A robust world economy would in contrast spark both the metal prices and mining output across the board. As speculation is perhaps the greatest catalyst to gold and silver prices and regardless what the banks you quote say (in support of their book?), there is a potential demand for PMs that is far and above current investment. NOTE, the total World mine production would only provide for a little over half the Chinese population owning a single ounce of silver, annually.

    While you insist there is a sizable over supply of silver, the evidence indicates the opposite. Try to add up the known silver stores from reputable sources and you will have trouble identifying more than the annual demand for silver. By the way, the most respected PM specialists are forecasting an increase in silver demand in the coming years. These specialist by and large are aware of the out sized amount of silver is shorted with the real silver only available to cover a small proportion of those shorts. A very volatile situation should we have any number of potential black swans swoop down on the COMEX price setting scheme. In sum, I believe that PAAS will be just fine as will a number of the primary silver miners.
    Apr 29, 2015. 02:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On China, The Demand For Silver And SLV [View article]
    lior_ Sorry to be redundant but my comment on your previous referenced article fits for this one also.

    "Lior_In most discussion concerning the supply side of silver production, little attention is given to bi-product source. From all accounts, that source amounts to ~70% of mined silver. The mechanics of how the the silver yield is being affected by low base metal prices are not discussed in detail. If high grading by these miners is being practiced it is likely playing a part in continued growth in silver mining supply. If so, we know this cannot be sustainable. There is discussion concerning old base metal mines getting close to exhaustion.If so, will new ore sources be as silver rich as these traditional suppliers? I have noticed in a few instances that if base metal ore grades double, the silver grade triples, or even quadruples. A non liner relationship. It would be interesting...and tellng if this were to be the case across the board. Likewise, it would be interesting to know if indeed the new replacement base metal mines are lower in silver grade.


    On the demand side, I suspect the higher silver prices of the past few years pretty well flushed out those industrial silver users who could substitute with a cheaper alternative. These users (past users) will be less of a head wind when silver makes it's next big run up. Certainly a lot more questions than answers when looking at silver supply and demand in an environment where there is scant above ground silver to be accessed when supply goes negative.
    31 Mar, 04:45 PM"

    I would sure like to see some discussion on the question of how much silver mine production is coming from inelastic bi-product sources. In this context, the slowing of Chinese growth (base metal demand) will eventually have an impact on silver mine supply. Thanks for your coverage of the subject.
    Apr 21, 2015. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Silver Production Matter For SLV? [View article]
    Lior_In most discussion concerning the supply side of silver production, little attention is given to bi-product source. From all accounts, that source amounts to ~70% of mined silver. The mechanics of how the the silver yield is being affected by low base metal prices are not discussed in detail. If high grading by these miners is being practiced it is likely playing a part in continued growth in silver mining supply. If so, we know this cannot be sustainable. There is discussion concerning old base metal mines getting close to exhaustion.If so, will new ore sources be as silver rich as these traditional suppliers? I have noticed in a few instances that if base metal ore grades double, the silver grade triples, or even quadruples. A non liner relationship. It would be interesting...and tellng if this were to be the case across the board. Likewise, it would be interesting to know if indeed the new replacement base metal mines are lower in silver grade.

    On the demand side, I suspect the higher silver prices of the past few years pretty well flushed out those industrial silver users who could substitute with a cheaper alternative. These users (past users) will be less of a head wind when silver makes it's next big run up. Certainly a lot more questions than answers when looking at silver supply and demand in an environment where there is scant above ground silver to be accessed when supply goes negative.
    Mar 31, 2015. 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hidden Leverage In Precious Metals Streaming And The Hidden Leverage Erosion In Precious Metals Mining [View article]
    BKN_ I appreciate your detailed presentation. Unfortunately, it is a busy weekend an II don't have much time to digest all you have written. In my quick review of your work I don't see a comparison of market caps that would give one a good idea of how the streamers are currently priced relative to silver miners. Looking at Silver Wheaton with a market cap of about $8 billion. That compares with the total market cap for three major silver miners of ~ $3 billion. Those miners would be Hecla. Pan America and Coeur. Their combined silver equivalent production sums to somewhat in the 100 million ounce range. If I remember correctly, SLW expects to produce 45 million silver equivalent next year. My point is that the favorable issues accruing to the streamer is substantially priced in to the share price. More than twice the cost and less than 1/2 the silver production?

    An issue that might raise its head is the possibility that the silver pricing system implodes with the streamers receiving their silver income based on paper prices while the miners sell into a silent market. Several years ago in a Coeur conference call the CEO said they were being visited by silver users looking for direct purchases. Pending the contracts the streamers have, it is not too far fetched to fathom where the miners are able to garner prices substantially above open market quotes. Thanks for the good work.
    Mar 29, 2015. 12:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hecla's Cash Cost Could Be Lower Than Anticipated In 2015 [View article]
    AW_Good to see coverage of HL's often overlooked base metal mining component. What I don't understand is your statement:

    "Hecla,.........., expects a supply shortage. The company has currently hedged 31% of its zinc exposure at $0.98 per pound. This means it is in a position to capture the potential upside in the zinc market."

    Admittedly, I am pretty ignorant of hedging, but it seems to me that Hecla will LOSE 31% of potential upside of Zn with their hedges (puts) set at $0.98. This is not necessarily a black mark as Hecla has done very well with it's hedging program all the way down in the base metal price crash the past couple years. They also have and continue to hedge a lesser percentage of the lead production. Thanks for your work.
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why An Expensive Hecla Mining Looks Like A Risky Investment [View article]
    Renu_Errors and Omissions cloud your conclusion. Some of the major issues I have with your article:
    Accepting Hecla's 2014 earnings as a valid bench mark without clarification is deceptive. Hecla's Lucky Friday decades old mine was being brought back on line in 2014 after a year of rebuilding with no production for that period. HL is 3/4 way through its Friday #4 shaft project that will cost ~$250 million and access huge, high grade reserves next year. HL's balance sheet for the year looks much better when a final payment of ~$55 million to the Silver Valley Superfund cleanup is considered. The Hecla commitment to this project was ~$250 million, paid down over the last several years.

    You say"...grade at Lucky Friday to 1.4 ounces per ton." I believe you missed this by a factor of 10. In fact, Friday silver grade is closer to 20 ounces per ton.

    Your comment of ( A significant gap between the forecasted resources and the actual resources at the Francine vein mine in Mexico could turn out to be a headwind for Hecla going forward.) makes no sense. Francine Vein is not a mine. It is a new add to the San Sebastian project. Hecla last operated a mine there 10 years ago and like you say the drill results have been spectacular. Where is the "headwind" you see?

    The "headwind" seen here: "Now, gold pricing is expected to improve at a greater pace when compared to silver going forward." is puzzling. It is generally accepted that the silver gold ratio of >70 is out of historical norms and should move closer to 50 to 1, significantly increasing the silver price.

    Another headwind: "As wages are pushed higher, so too should core inflation rise as increased purchasing power unleashes a wave of consumer demand, especially in housing." So you think that this would be negative for zinc, silver and gold? I think few would agree.

    As far as your comment concerning continued low PM prices: "Apart from a slow recovery in gold and silver pricing, this looks like another reason why paying almost 60 times last year's earnings to invest in Hecla looks like a risk" I suggest that this might apply to any company that has invested a large cap-ex that is expected to drive a substantial production increase. Sharp investors might disagree with you.

    My concluding comment is that if you believe Hecla is a "risk", I don't think you will find a silver miner without substantial risk. Still, most have great outlooks given a reasonable Ag price. That is what buy low and sell high is all about.
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:43 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coeur Mining's Turnaround Set To Continue [View article]
    Harsh_ For a quick look, your article has merit, but you have skimmed past some important factors that a serious investor needs to investigate. For example, the purchase of San Miguel is most beneficial to Coeur as it allows the company to avoid the harsh condition of having sold one-half of the flag ship Palmarejo gold for $400 per ounce. That deal applies only to the original Palo property and will not apply to the Miguel deposits. Don Ese hosts much higher grades than the even Guadeloupe. That deal with Franco Nevada also requires a delivery of a minimum of 50,000 gold ounces annually but that condition will cease to exist in a year or so. By the way, the deal with Paramount is an all shares deal that would calculate out to be closer to $147 million than your $47 million.

    I think your figures on silver demand are miss-quoted in saying: "680 million ounces by 201". That would be more likely be the "mined silver" figure and adding the recycle ounces would put "demand ounces" in the range of one billion oz. On silver mined silver I am always surprised that so little attention is given to the bi-product production from copper/gold and lead/zinc mines which amount to ~70% of silver mine supply. There is chatter about old base metal mines nearing depletion. Like wise, there is some noise about the same fate for old copper/gold mines. Major gold producers are reportedly due for a "peak" status as soon as next year. It will interesting to see how this all pans out given the projection of increased silver demand in the years ahead. Your effort is appreciated.
    Mar 12, 2015. 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An In-Depth Look At Coeur Mining's Recent Acquisitions [View article]
    Somabull_ Good job of covering the recent acquisitions by Coeur. I especially liked your coverage of the NOL aspect regarding the Wharf move. Also, good attention to the Franco streaming agreement being a major element in the Miguel purchase. I do agree with your conclusion that Coeur is still under valued. This is clearly true if the prices for PMs make a significant move up. A quick look at silver equivalency production comparisons with other companies showing far larger market caps, one can see a needed rebalance between Coeur and the peers.

    My opinion is augmented by the very encouraging drill results coming in for Rochester and Kensington. We should get some data in on these new discoveries fairly soon. Ore grade adjacent to existing infrastructure is key. However, right now with 4th Qtr earnings report....Ugh
    Feb 18, 2015. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just Who Is Hoarding All This Gold? [View article]
    mtclm_Thanks for clarifying that:
    "central banks purchased between 400 to 500 metric tons of gold (over $16 trillion at Spot Price $1,261.5) in 2014".

    I bet Russia would be tickled to have $48 trillion in gold reserves (1,200/400=3 x16 =$48).
    Feb 16, 2015. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • H.C. Wainwright's Heiko Ihle: Back To Precious Metals Equity Investing Basics [View article]
    HI_ Lots of good reading in your interview. I do want to point out that you were either in error or misquoted when you said:

    "He previously ran Aurizon Mines, which was bought by Coeur Mining Inc. (NYSE:CDE) in a bidding war."

    In fact it was Hecla, the other major USA silver producer that did that. They purchased Aurizon Mines to get the Casa Bera gold mine. By the way, that purchase seems to be paying off as HL has put money into the mine increasing production and researves. Good job of explaining the ramifications of Coeur's offer for Paramount G$S.
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Hecla Mining Rapidly Expands Its San Sebastian Silver Discovery [View article]
    I didn't trust my memory and thought I better check my accuracy. I was wrong on the date of Hecla's prior mining. This comment from a 2013 release gets it straight. It reads as follows:

    "Hecla operated the underground San Sebastian mine on this property from 2001-2005. During that time, the district produced 520,666 tons of ore containing 196,456 ounces of gold and 12.7 million ounces silver. With an average grade of 11.7 g/t Au and 763.1 g/t Ag, San Sebastian was one of the highest grade gold and silver mines in the world. Hecla geologists have long recognized the potential for the district to host similar high-grade mineralization, and a persistent ongoing exploration effort has been in place since Hecla took control of the district in 1999." Good comment, Guest11, This is a good company to own.
    Jan 24, 2015. 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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