Stephen Simpson's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/542417/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1431361/comments?source=feed#comment-18893341 18893341
I expect the majority of their business going forward will be through the big labs - it just makes more sense for the hospitals/clinics to outsource their lab functions as opposed to buying the equipment, hiring the techs, etc.

I think the size of the business today is small enough that this conversion issue is a big deal, but it won't (shouldn't?) be an enduring issue.]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 09:34:29 -0400
I expect the majority of their business going forward will be through the big labs - it just makes more sense for the hospitals/clinics to outsource their lab functions as opposed to buying the equipment, hiring the techs, etc.

I think the size of the business today is small enough that this conversion issue is a big deal, but it won't (shouldn't?) be an enduring issue.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/454691/comments?source=feed#comment-18665931 18665931 It helps, but one of the big challenges is getting patient compliance ... and unfortunately, most patients don't follow data. ]]> Fri, 10 May 2013 08:00:53 -0400 It helps, but one of the big challenges is getting patient compliance ... and unfortunately, most patients don't follow data. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1382021/comments?source=feed#comment-18313191 18313191
In case I wasn't explicit enough before, I'll say that I think mgmt's synergy goals for the first 18 months are too ambitious. I model 25% EBITDA margin for 2014.]]> Wed, 01 May 2013 10:50:19 -0400
In case I wasn't explicit enough before, I'll say that I think mgmt's synergy goals for the first 18 months are too ambitious. I model 25% EBITDA margin for 2014.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1382021/comments?source=feed#comment-18312321 18312321
Moreover, I said that my FV estimate for *today* based on 2014 EBITDA is $26 - higher, I believe, than the current sell-side avg price target.

I honestly don't know what you're all so riled up about. ]]> Wed, 01 May 2013 10:30:46 -0400
Moreover, I said that my FV estimate for *today* based on 2014 EBITDA is $26 - higher, I believe, than the current sell-side avg price target.

I honestly don't know what you're all so riled up about. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1382021/comments?source=feed#comment-18311511 18311511
Go back five years and look at the number of homebuilders and/or building supply companies that used debt to make multi-hundred million dollar acquisitions at/near the peak.

Look at the number of oil/gas and mineral companies that spend millions/billions on acquisitions at the peak of the cycle.

Look at CAT's recent purchase of that Chinese mining company and the subsequent writedown of 80%+ of the purchase price (fraud-related in this specific case). You don't think CAT management thought that they "fully vetted" the deal? And we're talking about CAT, a Dow stock, and not a $300M helicopter services company.

Corporate executives routinely make bad deals and then try to sell the Street on the notion that they just made a great deal. That's been going on for decades.

Look, if you think EAC is great, go buy it. I really don't care. This is my analysis and you're free to accept it or reject it as you like. I will continue to maintain that blindly accepting whatever management says is NOT analysis, but if that's what you want to go with, it doesn't cost me a dime. Just don't complain that you weren't warned if/when it blows up in your face.]]> Wed, 01 May 2013 10:08:05 -0400
Go back five years and look at the number of homebuilders and/or building supply companies that used debt to make multi-hundred million dollar acquisitions at/near the peak.

Look at the number of oil/gas and mineral companies that spend millions/billions on acquisitions at the peak of the cycle.

Look at CAT's recent purchase of that Chinese mining company and the subsequent writedown of 80%+ of the purchase price (fraud-related in this specific case). You don't think CAT management thought that they "fully vetted" the deal? And we're talking about CAT, a Dow stock, and not a $300M helicopter services company.

Corporate executives routinely make bad deals and then try to sell the Street on the notion that they just made a great deal. That's been going on for decades.

Look, if you think EAC is great, go buy it. I really don't care. This is my analysis and you're free to accept it or reject it as you like. I will continue to maintain that blindly accepting whatever management says is NOT analysis, but if that's what you want to go with, it doesn't cost me a dime. Just don't complain that you weren't warned if/when it blows up in your face.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1382021/comments?source=feed#comment-18297381 18297381 Tue, 30 Apr 2013 22:31:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1382021/comments?source=feed#comment-18296811 18296811
So, you have the sequester, the probable future cuts in defense spending, particularly in manpower and mobilization, and the Afghan wind-down. Moreover, in past periods of DoD spending cuts, eliminating outsiders has been a common move. I believe that is going to hammer EHI's profitability, and I believe EAC is going to have a difficult time reassigning those aircraft to firefighting, construction, or timber operations at similar levels of net profitability right away.

Long term, it's a not a problem (I think they're buying good assets at a reasonable price). I just think the expectations for 2013/2014 EBITDA are too high. Moreover, the free cash flow outlook (net of debt) just isn't that strong.]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 22:07:50 -0400
So, you have the sequester, the probable future cuts in defense spending, particularly in manpower and mobilization, and the Afghan wind-down. Moreover, in past periods of DoD spending cuts, eliminating outsiders has been a common move. I believe that is going to hammer EHI's profitability, and I believe EAC is going to have a difficult time reassigning those aircraft to firefighting, construction, or timber operations at similar levels of net profitability right away.

Long term, it's a not a problem (I think they're buying good assets at a reasonable price). I just think the expectations for 2013/2014 EBITDA are too high. Moreover, the free cash flow outlook (net of debt) just isn't that strong.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1382091/comments?source=feed#comment-18287851 18287851
Isis got $45M from JNJ for a two-drug partnership back in 2007. Again, that would have been a first-in-class drug.

Long before that, NKTR got a smaller upfront from Pfizer for Exubera, but that was a weird deal all around.

Normally I'd think $30M to $45M upfront, with most of the costs paid for by the partner would feel about right. ]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 17:09:27 -0400
Isis got $45M from JNJ for a two-drug partnership back in 2007. Again, that would have been a first-in-class drug.

Long before that, NKTR got a smaller upfront from Pfizer for Exubera, but that was a weird deal all around.

Normally I'd think $30M to $45M upfront, with most of the costs paid for by the partner would feel about right. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1382091/comments?source=feed#comment-18286441 18286441
I was referring more specifically to what sell-side analysts were doing insofar as setting a target date, seeing it go by, and then setting a new one. I don't think mgmt has said more than "before we start P3" as the target date.]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 16:42:39 -0400
I was referring more specifically to what sell-side analysts were doing insofar as setting a target date, seeing it go by, and then setting a new one. I don't think mgmt has said more than "before we start P3" as the target date.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1382091/comments?source=feed#comment-18285961 18285961
So, I'm not mocking you at all, nor arguing with you. Rather, just offering up that others have said that before about other incremental datapoints. ]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 16:31:32 -0400
So, I'm not mocking you at all, nor arguing with you. Rather, just offering up that others have said that before about other incremental datapoints. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1382021/comments?source=feed#comment-18285841 18285841 Tue, 30 Apr 2013 16:29:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1382091/comments?source=feed#comment-18285391 18285391
Then again, who knows? Maybe that explains why the P3 partnership announcement is so long in coming.]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 16:18:56 -0400
Then again, who knows? Maybe that explains why the P3 partnership announcement is so long in coming.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1382021/comments?source=feed#comment-18285331 18285331 Tue, 30 Apr 2013 16:17:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/6880-alan-brochstein/1809481-mjna-seeking-alpha-writers-litigation-is-misguided?source=feed#comment-18271901 18271901
I love it when lousy companies start throwing around allegations of misrepresentation, defamation, and so on. While it plays well to their crowd (credulous retail investors), I think they'd find the discovery process of an actual lawsuit to be quite adverse to their own interests. ]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 11:36:13 -0400
I love it when lousy companies start throwing around allegations of misrepresentation, defamation, and so on. While it plays well to their crowd (credulous retail investors), I think they'd find the discovery process of an actual lawsuit to be quite adverse to their own interests. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1369511/comments?source=feed#comment-18092461 18092461 Thu, 25 Apr 2013 14:31:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1339491/comments?source=feed#comment-17605711 17605711 Sun, 14 Apr 2013 13:58:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1339491/comments?source=feed#comment-17597901 17597901 Sun, 14 Apr 2013 09:33:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1339491/comments?source=feed#comment-17597361 17597361 Sun, 14 Apr 2013 09:15:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1319921/comments?source=feed#comment-17210851 17210851
If you really believe that, what's the point of investing in individual stocks? The whole point of active investment is the notion that stock prices can deviate (sometimes very significantly) from the intrinsic value of the company. ]]> Thu, 04 Apr 2013 10:22:50 -0400
If you really believe that, what's the point of investing in individual stocks? The whole point of active investment is the notion that stock prices can deviate (sometimes very significantly) from the intrinsic value of the company. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1319921/comments?source=feed#comment-17202321 17202321 Thu, 04 Apr 2013 06:33:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1312611/comments?source=feed#comment-17116801 17116801 Tue, 02 Apr 2013 12:26:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1312611/comments?source=feed#comment-17115861 17115861 Tue, 02 Apr 2013 12:09:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1312611/comments?source=feed#comment-17115401 17115401 GE's about the only co I could see doing it, and I don't really think they're all that interested. ]]> Tue, 02 Apr 2013 12:00:42 -0400 GE's about the only co I could see doing it, and I don't really think they're all that interested. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1308031/comments?source=feed#comment-17088281 17088281 Mon, 01 Apr 2013 17:19:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1308031/comments?source=feed#comment-17009881 17009881 Sat, 30 Mar 2013 09:39:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1304571/comments?source=feed#comment-16995011 16995011 Fri, 29 Mar 2013 17:02:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1303581/comments?source=feed#comment-16941581 16941581 Thanks for spotting that. There are 500+ banks in Texas total, and about 50 with assets between $1B and $4B. I switched the numbers when I was writing and didn't notice that.

As for the number between $100M and $2B, I was talking only about the top 25 MSAs; I believe your 363 number for the state in total. ]]> Thu, 28 Mar 2013 13:03:00 -0400 Thanks for spotting that. There are 500+ banks in Texas total, and about 50 with assets between $1B and $4B. I switched the numbers when I was writing and didn't notice that.

As for the number between $100M and $2B, I was talking only about the top 25 MSAs; I believe your 363 number for the state in total. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1303581/comments?source=feed#comment-16932101 16932101 Thu, 28 Mar 2013 10:27:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1295891/comments?source=feed#comment-16825241 16825241 Tue, 26 Mar 2013 10:58:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1292631/comments?source=feed#comment-16673181 16673181 Fri, 22 Mar 2013 16:10:32 -0400