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Bill Costello

Bill Costello
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  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]
    Funny 9 months later they announce the exit rate will be between 8,000 and 9,500 a little better than my 7,000 swag and the price today is splitting that $12-13 I mentioned. Better to be lucky than good. It hasn't exactly been a straight ride but they have done pretty well.
    Aug 15 11:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lynden Energy - Unknown Permian Basin Pure Play Could Triple [View article]
    I worked in West Texas, there was a place there called the Permian Basin that had as much oil as Saudi Arabia, in the summer of 81 and bought SLB in 1982. After oil collapsed I think it was till 1990 before I broke even on my SLB investment.
    Aug 15 10:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI: Potential 33% Upside After EPL Acquisition [View article]
    2015 guidance for one. If you look at the author's estimate and what management said you will notice it is lower.
    Aug 14 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI: Potential 33% Upside After EPL Acquisition [View article]
    Don't worry John will still get his huge bonus and load up on scotch and good wine. Only the shareholders will suffer.
    Aug 14 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Are An Alpha Seeker Looking For The Next Big Energy Play, Load Epsilon Energy Now [View article]
    I doubt the 3rd largest energy firm in the world is salivating at picking up less than 6K non-op acres to partner with CHK.
    Aug 14 09:53 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rex Energy to acquire Appalachian Basin acreage from Shell for $120M [View news story]
    Looks like a great deal for REXX. They really got this asset cheap. Mind you they need to put a lot of development capital towards it but it looks good.
    Aug 12 05:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lynden Energy - Unknown Permian Basin Pure Play Could Triple [View article]
    In 1992 I was working at Delphi and we were the third largest shareholder of his company. It was called Parker & Parsley before it morphed and he set up his kid in the new "Parsley Energy".
    Aug 11 09:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Approach Resources Q2 Earnings Announcement: What To Look For [View article]
    I wouldn't disagree with that conceptually. Especially at this price but I think the real issues that make it difficult are first the low return and what is arguably a high oil price and then just the continual cash burn with no path towards free cash flow. Sometime in 2015 they will need to think about late that year and 2016 and they won't have room on revolver so they will have to do a high yield or dilute you with another offering. I would say this stock hits $25 an offering comes. Now if I buy at $18 maybe I am not disappointed to see an offering at $25 but if oil went to $75 these guys don't make money (maybe they do in an accounting sense but their acreage can't be IRR positive at $75 WTI).
    Aug 11 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonanza Creek Reports In-Line Volumes, Bottom-Line Miss On One-Time Costs, Super Section Looking Good [View article]
    Great notes Zman. We were lucky enough to scoop up a bit (and some more SYRG) on the mini sell off before people figured it out today. Of course a bull market makes you look like a genius. That's the funny thing about the business too many people confuse luck with brains.
    Aug 8 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonanza Creek Reports In-Line Volumes, Bottom-Line Miss On One-Time Costs, Super Section Looking Good [View article]
    Thank you. It is really funny because I probably know very little in general but I do know E & P investing so much better than I do utilities. I do cover both but my E & P picks have performed reasonably well and the utilities marginally at best yet the only WSJ reporters who ever call me are the ones writing utility pieces. I guess there aren't many of us dumb enough to want to put our opinions in print probably for fear of being wrong. But hell I have been wrong so many times in my life what is adding one more time to the pile.
    Aug 8 05:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonanza Creek Reports In-Line Volumes, Bottom-Line Miss On One-Time Costs, Super Section Looking Good [View article]
    This call is very bullish. The 4 well test with IP30 of 477 Boe that is above their 313K EUR (I get 359K on my modeling) that has an IP60 of 463 raises my EUR to 432K. That could add a lot to NAV.
    Aug 8 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Approach Resources Q2 Earnings Announcement: What To Look For [View article]
    Bad tape if you don't get it right. Production was gassier than expected and in Q2 drilled and completed 16 wells average IP-24 was 556 Boe. Seems marginally economic at $95 WTI but I would guess 30% IRR at best. That was the reason I moved on from them 6 months ago. I like them and the contiguous acreage just wish it were better acreage. Just my opinion.
    Aug 5 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PDC Energy - Is Selling Overdone? [View article]
    Timing was good on this one with Colorado calming down a bit. We got a bit of a pop back.
    Aug 4 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Are An Alpha Seeker Looking For The Next Big Energy Play, Load Epsilon Energy Now [View article]
    I would hardly call something that represents 12% of pre tax income negligible but perhaps you are far richer than I so it would qualify in your book. As you must be well aware in the investment reporting world of E & P the loss would count as a negative since it was realized but the gain would not be as it is an unrealized number that could reverse (or increase) between the period and the end of the hedge. For an example look at the KOG release from last night. That is the convention though you can state any numbers you wish. I know and like the stock but I just thought the information should be presented in the convention of the industry.
    Aug 1 09:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Are An Alpha Seeker Looking For The Next Big Energy Play, Load Epsilon Energy Now [View article]
    You do realize that the jump in net income was primarily due to a $1.6 million unrealized gain on hedges and a $.7 million gain on sale of fixed assets as opposed to operating factors. Not that it was a bad quarter and it is an interesting stock.
    Jul 31 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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