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Bill Costello

Bill Costello
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  • PetroQuest: Click 'Buy More Shares' Now [View article]
    You got to try to keep some humor in such a rough tape. It hasn't been any fun but I like all the names I own and think they are executing reasonably well.
    Oct 14 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PetroQuest: Click 'Buy More Shares' Now [View article]
    Well we got to pick up a bit more under $4.15 today. Hopefully with enough fortitude one or two of these buys will look smart (right now I would even settle for less dumb).
    Oct 14 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    I like the stock here. Now to be honest I would have said that $5 higher and $5 higher and I have been dead wrong. They have solid reserves and good assets and I like the acquisition they made. The balance sheet is an issue but they are fully funded in my opinion through 2015 and I think they have some salable assets. Liquidity always is a concern in falling commodity prices and a skittish market. I would say the longer term price target of $30 is probably impaired by the differentials but I think $22-24 is reasonable for this stock 3 years out. I see many more positives than negatives here. But again I have been dear wrong on this.
    Oct 14 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PetroQuest: Click 'Buy More Shares' Now [View article]
    It had been down earlier today like most energy. We picked some up at $4.65 today. Of course that looks good on the close but I thought I was smart last week at $5.70 so you never know. Good presentation of the facts though I would caution a bit about the reserve adds in the CV. I think the wells are really good and I think you will seem upward revisions but with the few wells they have drilled it really won't be a huge jump (per well it will be a nice move) next year if they can bring 18 on line at 15 bcfe EUR would be nice. Also while all indications are Thunder Bayou is doing fine and I think there is little to no value in the stock for it if it is a dry hole that will be a bad day to be a PQ holder. Of course if successful we see well over 50% production growth next year. My final concern (and why it is a half not a full position for me) is the debt level. I know debt to EBITDA is okay but they should call the high coupon and try to really finance it right to allow them to manage better.
    Oct 8 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FMSA Holdings Looking Strong Heading Into IPO [View article]
    I was only saying that the total market cap is higher than it was listed above. I think there was confusion on the number of shares offered versus total outstanding after the deal. So if some one was thinking they were buying a small cap ($1 billion) they were really buying a Smid cap ($4 billion). For instance I can't participate for my fund as it is too big even if I thought it was the greatest deal and knew it would double. I wasn't talking at all to attractiveness or valuation. I met with them and was very impressed with management and the business model. I think the sand dynamics are going to be strong the next couple years (maybe longer) but since I couldn't be a buyer I didn't build a model or push the numbers.
    Oct 2 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goodrich Petroleum: A Positive TMS Update [View article]
    Time will tell on that. Of course @ $12 million a well they would need $24 billion to drill 2,000 wells. They aren't a cash machine over time. If not for equity offerings they would have been bankrupt by now. Their best year was 2012 when they generated $174 million and only spent $252 million. They have done some form of equity raise in 05, 07, 08 12, and 13. They have only had 1 year of positive EBIT in the last 10 and debt has gone from 27 million to 485 million despite those equity deals. There is potential but I think to just assume 2,000 locations and 600,00 EUR is wishful thinking.
    Oct 2 10:29 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goodrich Petroleum: A Positive TMS Update [View article]
    No doubt it is volatile. But how would you define undervalued ? It has gone from $27 to $13 so mathematically it is cheaper but what metrics would you use to claim undervalued ? Certainly not on the conventional ones that many people use (EV/Ebitda or P/cf) possibly on NAV but you have to make big assumptions on a play at that we really don't know the economics on. These EURs are being tossed around as if it is uniform and without a long enough history on any single well to prove them. The costs are being set a low level when most of the wells have cost $14+ million. Possibly $10 million is right in development mode but that has to be proven. It may be cheap I just don't see it but it isn't my type of stock so I don't follow it closely. To me TMS is unproven and the company is way over leveraged and has poor management. But I could be wrong on a few of those assumptions.
    Oct 1 04:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FMSA Holdings Looking Strong Heading Into IPO [View article]
    I don't think it will have a market value of just over $1 billion. I think it is closer to $3.5-4 billion.
    Oct 1 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Synergy Resources: Exceptional Drilling Returns In The Niobrara [View article]
    Nice balanced article. Operations update out today in line with expectations. 90 day rate for Union pad solid and above Phelps. Kiehn wells look to spill over into 2015 as there will be 13 wells including 5 Weis wells. They have done a very good job for shareholders and should be able to produce a very good 2015 and beyond. It would not be unreasonable to see two more years of triple digit growth without stretching the balance sheet.
    Sep 30 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buda Oil Well Rates Of Return Better Than Eagle Ford [View article]
    Totally different basin and subject but to your point a bit who would have thought the old vertical boring Cotton Valley sands that were abandoned for the Haynesville Shale would all of a sudden be a hot horizontal play with the likes of APC MMEP PQ getting 10-15 million a day 30 day IP in East Texas and moving over to Louisiana seeing even better results with the likes of MRD routinely over 20 million. But like the rebirth of the Permian (probably for the 6th or 7th time in the last 70 years) everything old is new again
    Sep 25 06:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buda Oil Well Rates Of Return Better Than Eagle Ford [View article]
    That sounds pretty interesting.
    Sep 25 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quiet Period Expiration For Viper Energy Partners IPO Could Have A Bite To It [View article]
    Perhaps but if you have perfect timing and are willing to be a flipper you can almost always find a time frame that justifies a buy. Most people have selective memory when it comes to investments you would be amazed how many people I know who bottom tick 95% of their buys and top tick 95% of there sells. Then there are schmucks like me who are lucky to be right 55% of the time. I think if I bought post IPO or on the secondary I might not be too pleased. But I bought a few shares yesterday so we can see in six months or a year. I think I will be okay.
    Sep 25 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Preview: Vantage Energy [View article]
    Correct. They didn't want to take a price $3 below low end which was where investors were thinking it had to be priced to get it done.
    Sep 25 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quiet Period Expiration For Viper Energy Partners IPO Could Have A Bite To It [View article]
    I am afraid the only bite this one had was to those who bought.
    Sep 24 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contango And U.S. Energy Are In Austin Chalk Sweet Spot [View article]
    I see they are presenting at the Johnson Rice conference in New Orleans next week (MCF that is) maybe we get more data.
    Sep 23 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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