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Bill Costello

Bill Costello
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  • IPO Preview: Stalwart Tankers [View article]
    This one seems to have death written all over it. Especially in a risk-off market.
    Apr 10 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nighthawk Energy Sees Triple-Digit Growth By Hitting Sweet Spots In The Denver-Julesburg Basin [View article]
    Just out of curiosity do either of theses things bother you or perhaps there are logical explanations ? The Chairman of the board resigned 3/31 though that may be normal course of events and he is staying on to help them replace him. Second current production (Feb. 2014 of 1650 Boe/d) seems to be from 6 wells. The three oldest account for about 70% and the next three they brought on were less than half as productive. Granted it is a small sample size and there is variability in all plays but it would be worth looking into. Finally there are a few other wells highlighted in the presentation like the Telluride and Big Sky 14-11 (which may be waiting on completion or might be identified locations not yet drilled) that don't seem to be producing yet. The Big Sky 12-11 came on 5 months after the previous one so it might just be the nature of the beast but was wondering the status of those highlighted non producing locations ?
    Apr 9 02:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcon Resources - 4th Quarter 2013 Turning The Corner On Risk [View article]
    Good article Steve. It isn't my type of stock as we don't have the same risk profile but I like Floyd and wish him and you well with the investment. As an aside I was surprised and happy I guess about the Eaglebine sale. My real question is who was the buyer as I would be very interested. Given HK's desire to go to the TMS and the need to restrain the balance sheet the buyer might have gotten an advantageous deal on the acreage. I didn't listen to the call with all the other earnings going on but didn't know if they said. If not any thoughts who might care in that area ?.
    Feb 27 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tuscany International Drilling: Is Something Rotten? (Part 2) [View article]
    We did as well but they have done a nice job transforming the company.
    Feb 21 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sundance Energy Hopes For A Glowing IPO [View article]
    I got calls from almost every underwriter begging me to take a meeting with them. It was as cold as the Northeast has been this winter.
    Feb 21 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tuscany International Drilling: Is Something Rotten? (Part 2) [View article]
    Walter Alfred Dawson at Tuscany
    Feb 18 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Top Idea Explained In Non Technical Language - AusTex Oil [View article]
    I have not. I think you make a compelling case but given the structure and size it wouldn't be something I could own in my fund so it is more of a PA stock for me and I really don't do much of that as my firm frowns on it and I especially stay away from energy names (I actually owned SYRG at $2.60 in summer of 12 because my team didn't want to own a $2 sub $300 million market cap but by the end of the year it was close to $5 and I though compelling so I sold mine to have the fund buy it) because if it is good enough for me but not the fund it gives a bad impression no matter what the reality is. We are a publicly traded firm and we want to be above the board on everything and make sure the optics of everything we do look good. A bit long winded sorry.
    Jan 23 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Top Idea Explained In Non Technical Language - AusTex Oil [View article]
    I agree completely with your statement. Both as a matter of fact as you do a great job on your disclosure.
    Jan 23 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Resources Looks Poised for Growth [View article]
    I think there are some interesting ones. We really don't own any of them but LPI seems well run and I was impressed by the ATHL results though I might not say it was cheap and FANG has caught people's attention. Not that this is relevant but I think we will see 3 or 4 Permian IPOs before the summer. A little bigger but I like XEC's Deleware Basin assets. It has been the basin I have focused less time on (to both my chagrin and detriment) that has been getting steadily better.
    Dec 4 07:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Resources Looks Poised for Growth [View article]
    I haven't followed it as closely as I had in the past so I am a bit stale on the name. I thought the last quarter was good and guidance okay. It is cheap but given they want to do an acquisition I am not sure what they bring to that table.
    Dec 3 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Corp.: A Limited Risk Investment With 40% Upside [View article]
    Absolutely the dividend is stable. Nowhere in any statement did I say it was going to be cut. I did say they would in the past if you care to do some research. I don't have a "sell" on it nor am I short it. It could very well work out over time as you collect your dividend and possibly the stock will appreciate at some time. What I am saying (and thought I did so articulately enough to be understood) is 2013 will be a peak EPS year (actually 2011 was) that due to the nature of their hedge book they won't be able to eclipse till 2016 or 2017 save a big accretive acquisition. As long as they earn $2 in EPS which I think they will be above the dividend is safe.
    Nov 13 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]
    Michael will have a much better answer for you but here are a few simplistic things you are missing though a more detailed response would be needed. First SYRG has an odd fiscal year (August) so the production was for the 3 months ended August 2013. The 5 wells Michael is referring to came on in early September which while technically what we all think of as third quarter it is in SYRG's fiscal first quarter of 2014. They actually brought on zero operated wells in their fourth quarter as they were drilling and completing the five well pad. So their first quarter should benefit from all that flush production. They are drilling a 6 well pad now that won't contribute to the first quarter (ending November 2013) but should hit in Q3 but really only for a month. The move to pad drilling will cause real lumpy production but big lumps. Then if you take the 224 wells SYRG has a working interest not 100% especially some non op wells where they could have under 5%. The last difference is the five well pad is their first horizontal foray so the 202 wells are all vertical and many older so their productivity is nothing like the horizontal wells. Those are a few of the reasons.
    Nov 13 09:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Corp.: A Limited Risk Investment With 40% Upside [View article]
    I wouldn't bet on it any time soon. Next quarter should be closer to $500 million unless we have extreme temperatures. Q1 should tick up from there then Q2 back down to the $500 million level and Q3 next year up from Q2 but below $750 million. You probably need to understand their business model a bit better. They are so fully hedged power prices and locked in at lower rates (than 2013) for the next three years on what is 2/3 of their business.
    Nov 13 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]
    We do SYRG isn't our only holding or energy holding. It is a diversified portfolio. We did own KOG which we recently sold as it got to big (it is a small cap fund). We own CRZO, BCEI, REXX, and MTRX not that it is an energy company in the sense we know it (not an E & P) but lumped in there. At times we have owned AREX, MTDR, GPOR and PDCE as well but we limit exposure to any one stock or sector. We try to buy "high" quality E & P companies if that is a real term that have decent balance sheets (for instance we didn't buy CRZO till they started getting religion on capital discipline and keeping debt/EBITDA under 2.5 X) that have good assets and execute well. We don't tend to buy leveraged companies (heavily leveraged) so for instance last year we owned SFY and I was dead wrong there. I wanted Eagle Ford but miss judged their asset quality and they have outspent cash flow for 4 years now and are overleveraged and the execution is lacking. In a way it is why you won't see us own HK, MHR, PVA or GDP. Some of these have been homeruns (MHR, PVA, and GDP) from their low points but we just can't get comfortable with the risk involved if I am wrong (which I often am) or if Jeep is right about the collapse of oil prices (time will tell). So SYRG is just one name in a few as we spread risk. If it ahead of itself near term that is fine as I think it doubles in three years. Could it go to $6 first ? yes
    Nov 12 04:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]
    Very fair points. I look at but don't really use a flowing barrel valuation when I value the stocks myself. I was comparing it back of envelop to KOG as it reminds me of them when they were struggling. My price target is actually 8/2016 7 x Ev/EBITDA discounted back to get $13 and similar P/cf methodology and I typically average them to try to compensate for debt structures. I burden them with the negative cash flow for the 3 years (maybe my cap ex assumptions are too low or growth rates too high though historically that isn't the case as I am usually conservative) and grow the share base a couple percent each year for option dilution. I also compare against a prospective NAV which is also a method I don't like to use but just to see where that falls out. For SYRG I get $11.15 on my base case and $14.85 on a very optimistic one. That would be 25% of Northern Extension working at 250 Mboe EUR (200K after royalty). You should check out the CS report that says core Niobrara acreage could be worth $200,000 per acre if you want some silly pie in the sky math. I think the stock has come very far very fast and needs to grow into their valuation but I think the 5 well pad was very good and if the 6 well pad comes on as well in January while lumpy on a quarterly basis those 2 pads go a long way to doubling production in their first half of year (quarter ending February 2014).
    Nov 12 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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