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forceOfHabit

forceOfHabit
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  • In The Real World, Android Is A Proprietary Platform [View article]
    Florian Mueller? OSS IP maven? Seriously? I know Groklaw has shut down (sadly) but if you followed open source IP issues at all seriously over the last decade you would know how little credibility FM has, as his own words and actions have proven countless times over that span.
    Feb 18, 2014. 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Shipping Change Means The Earnings Miss Is Probably Massive [View article]
    Although I think you present a credible rationale, my best guess for an alternative explanation is they're trying to drive growth in AMZN Prime, especially the streaming video aspect. Critical mass (in terms of number of subs) there is crucial if its to actually become a credible rival to NFLX I'm guessing the numbers for Prime don't look good, and this is an attempt to shore up that side of the business.
    Oct 22, 2013. 12:14 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ComScore Is Reporting A Severe Slowdown In Amazon.com Web Traffic [View article]
    Please, allow me to quote your previous comment )rom a different thread):

    "Forget it. I thought it was a pretty straightforward question, but you clearly can't grasp what's being asked of you. Maybe politics is a good career for you, because you're very dodgy when it comes to direct questions. "

    Oh wait another quote from you, (from a previous comment in this thread)

    "Note: I hold no positions in AMZN and don't intend to ever. Rather, I am just here to point out when someone is wrong."

    Sad really. Don't you have anything better to do with your time?
    Sep 16, 2013. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis: Netflix's deal with Virgin Media has long-term implications [View news story]
    Looks like the market is fighting the hype pretty well today (-$8.00).
    Sep 11, 2013. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Golden Queen Mining Offers Good Value To Gold Bulls [View article]
    I'm no expert at evaluating gold juniors, but this is the way I look at the numbers you presented (very roughly):

    I pay $120 up front for a resource that after 2 years pays me $14/year (70,000 oz x $200 net per oz) for roughly 15 years (70,000 oz / year with roughly 1.05 million oz reserves). So payback on my initial investment takes 11 years (not even including any present valuing of the cash flows; if I stick in a discount rate of what 6? 8? 10? percent then it looks even worse.). Yikes! Suddenly I'm not so keen...or maybe this is typical for the gold mining industry?

    The only way I'd make this play as a small investor is if I thought there was a reasonable prospect of a takeover so I get a timely return on my investment. Any thoughts on how likely that is?

    As a speculator, I might buy this as a way to bet on gold prices, but fwiw, I'm not sure GQM is as leveraged to the price of gold as your chart would suggest. After all, the world in which gold hits $2000/oz is probably one in which energy prices and the cost of extraction also increase substantially.
    Jul 11, 2013. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX +5.1%) roars 6% higher after news of a content deal with DreamWorks Animation breaks. Though the partnership will significantly strengthen the company's menu of children's programming including the rights to air Shrek and Kung Fu Panda series, with financial terms undisclosed there is a wildcard in the mix. [View news story]
    mershaw2001: so true. As I understand it, they wont actually have any of this new content until 2016 which leaves a big window in which customers can switch over to AMZN Prime (which picked up a lot of the Viacom kid's content). And then in 2016 it will depend on whether or not the shows they bought are winners or not.

    I think the old phrase for this is something along the line of "buying a pig in a poke". I shorted some on the gap up, a little too early in the day as it turns out, but we'll see what tomorrow brings.
    Jun 17, 2013. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A BlackBerry - Chinese Company Merger Serves Apple And Maybe Hackers Too [View article]
    "China has the right hackers, its resources are limitless and its history seems questionable enough."

    Comparing the Chinese to the Americans, I have only three words to say:

    Pot. Kettle. Black.
    Jun 14, 2013. 10:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon (AMZN) scores a multi-year deal with Viacom (VIA) for many of the TV shows Netflix (NFLX -1.2%) lost last month, and boasts some of the content will be exclusive. "Hundreds of TV shows and thousands of TV episodes" from Viacom, including popular kids' shows such as Dora the Explorer, Blues Clues, and Spongebob Squarepants, are being added to Prime Instant Video, with British/German Lovefilm subs getting access to some of them this summer. Some of the content will also be added to the kids-specific Kindle FreeTime Unlimited service. (Amazon/Epix deal) (Downton Abbey exclusive) (original shows[View news story]
    I think its safe to say that Dora, Spongebob etc. are for the toddlers, and I would guess that the convenience of live streaming for that demographic (no sticky fingers or scratches on CD's, don't have to remember to bring the DVD's with you to grandma's house, on demand vs plan ahead availability etc.) far outweigh the logistics of DVDs.

    In terms of building a long term ecosystem, I think capturing the kiddie market is huge. I've been skeptical of AMZN Prime, but I have to agree, NFLX is being "Amazoned" (like investinginvestor said).
    Jun 4, 2013. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why LinkedIn Is Due For A Big Fall [View article]
    Are you serious? The "Range of potential outcomes" (see graph above) includes a non-zero probability of -$50/share??
    Jun 4, 2013. 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is No Holy Grail For Small Business - Shares Fairly Valued [View article]
    "bashing facebook"??

    They said current fair value is $25 (pretty much the same as today's stock price) and they have "...expected fair value of $35 per share in Year 3 ". Now I'm no analyst, but $25 -> $35 in 3 years is something like 12% cumulative annual returns for the buy and hold investor - hardly "bashing".
    May 31, 2013. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Time To Throw In The Towel? [View article]
    That's an impressive list of pros you cite. Now looka at the cons:

    1) "Once you lose your mojo you cannot get it back"

    Ridiculous! See AAPL.

    2) "Blackberry has made several moves to increase its cool factor. "

    2a) "First, the company changed its name from RIMM to BlackBerry."

    2b) "Second, the company hired Alicia Keys as a new creative director."

    2c) "Third, CEO Thorsten Heins has showed some spirit and made some great statements regarding the competition."

    2d) " Finally, BlackBerry is running some well-made commercials faulting the innovative features of the phone."

    Seriously??? Those are your reasons for selling the stock?? Oh wait, your actual reason is BBRY is insufficiently cool and your proof is "The lack of positive movement in the stock underpins this thesis."

    You mention the huge open short interest, but you think the "lack of positive movement in the stock" is attributable to lack of coolness? Could it possibly have something to do with being a target of the short sellers?

    I'm not saying you, or the market, or the short sellers, are wrong about BBRY's future prospects, and I certainly agree with you about the likelihood of large volatility, but for the most part, I think your reasons are shallow at best.
    May 30, 2013. 10:02 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Return Of 'Arrested Development' Demonstrates Netflix's Strength [View article]
    I disagree that the important aspect of movie (or tv show) making is addressed by Big Data (even if it is successfully implemented - a big if). After all, knowing that there is viewer appetite for, say, a spy thriller, or a movie with Johnny Depp, or a movie with a talking donkey doesn't even begin to address the bigger question of how to make a good movie in any of these genres. Lots of eagerly awaited movies with promising casts and directors and 100 million dollar budgets fail miserably.

    More important than the genre, or the star, or the gimmick, is the execution. I don't think NFLX collected data (or anybody else's) even begins to address this issue and so I don't see that they have any competitive advantage in terms of producing original content.

    Instead, where I think their data might be useful is in being able to identify early (i.e. before their competitors) which movies are going to have a long tail: the ones that people will want to watch and rewatch. These are the ones you want to lock up over as long a period as possible with exclusive distribution rights.

    Another area where BIg Data will be useful is in assessing the mix of genres that your audience demands. There will always be a certain percentage of your audience looking for historical romances, for Japanese anime, for nature documentaries or whatever. Viewing habits data will be useful in determining how many of each type of movie to include in your catalogue, and how quickly to turn them over for newer (or just different) selections in the same genre.

    Either of the above seem to me likely ways in which BIg Data is actually going to be useful (to NFLX or their competitors). I simply don't buy the argument that its particularly relevant or useful in successfully creating new content.
    May 29, 2013. 11:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX -4.5%) slumps after releasing all 15 episodes of Season 4 of Arrested Development over the weekend (following a 7-year break) to mixed reviews, at best. "If you truly loved [the first 3 seasons], it's hard to imagine being anything but disappointed with this new rendition," writes the NYT's Mike Hale. The WSJ's Nathan Rabin: "The pacing is notably slower than during its original run and the show lacks the breathtaking density that characterized its glorious past." The LA Times' Robert Lloyd is more positive. "I have ... watched it all – and not with grim determination, but rather great, increasing satisfaction." (The Daily Beast) (The Guardian[View news story]
    "I can't imagine a plunge on Disney, if a mediocre film came out. "

    Ummmm...have you compared the valuations of NFLX and DIS? NFLX is priced for perfection, DIS for reality. Can you really be surprised by a 4.5% drop when reality bites?
    May 28, 2013. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday: Resist The Urge To Short This Stock [View article]
    I too have a hard time resisting shorting companies like this. But I agree that sometimes you have to just bite your tongue and stay out of it. How do you think this compares as a short candidate to CRM (which reports today)?
    May 23, 2013. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Netflix The Exception That Proves The Rule? [View article]
    "...House of Cards starring Kevin Spacey has turned out to be everything Netflix had hoped for."

    I keep reading things like that but I still have no idea whether its true or not. Do you know of any evidence to support this statement? I haven't even been able to find out what metrics NFLX uses to guage the success or failure of their content, let alone how well or bady HoC performed on those metrics.

    How come I never hear similar (or even opposite) things about Hemlock Grove, another NFLX original? It seems like everytime I finish watching a movie on NFLX (yes I'm a subscriber) I get a trailer/advertisement for Hemlock Grove. Does that mean its underperofrming? Or is it just because it was released more recently than HoC? If it is underperforming, that's pretty bad because I would think the two minutes at the end of a (many? most?) NFLX movie is a pretty good advertising spot - think how much NFLX might charge to sell that time for - so you'd think they would be able to generate good viewership for HG.

    Just curious about how successful NFLX original content actually is. I don't suppose answers will be easily forthcoming - after all, I have the same sorts of questions about AMZN Prime.
    May 22, 2013. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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