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  • Atlas Resources: An Undervalued Play On Natural Gas  [View article]
    ARP is in a special situation where they have a relatively small
    $2 billion market cap, and bolt-on and organic growth is very accretive with a $4 NG price deck.

    They will become more oily, only 21% now, with their organic inventory which will improve margins from here as well as reducing G&A per share going forward.

    Their G&A is fully covered by the income generated from their public LP program sold through thousands of stock brokers and should accelerate going forward as word spreads of their very profitable drilling results.

    Their hedge program actually has increasing NG pricing in their 5 year hedge book, all above $4 for their natural gas.

    They are poised to increase the quarterly distribution to .65 cents in the 3rd quarter from last quarters .54 cents a share this quarter.

    They are like to earn between .70 and .75 cents a share this quarter, giving a better than 1.1 coverage ratio. They are also likely to announce positive results from their organic drilling program and public partnership program which will drive earnings in 2014.

    They have room for another $400 million of future acquisitions without issuing more equity which has a super accretive effect prior to issuing more equity when the stock price recovers to the $25 level from nearly $20.

    They are poised to distribute at least $2.60 cents a share in 2014 relying only on moderate organic growth. Therefore, we could get to .75 cents a share a quarter by the end of next year if they execute their plan.

    That would be a $3 distribution level at a projected $25 stock price which would be a 12% yield.
    Sep 2, 2013. 12:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EV Energy Partners: Potential $30 Upside For The Patient Investor  [View article]
    I think when the deal settles and the price
    per acre is analyzed, we will see an average
    price of $10,000.

    What is more important to EVEP is the "quality"
    of assets we get in trade and where the
    distributable cash flow lands. I'd like to see
    a $5 annual distribution with a 1.2 DCR within
    a year of announcement

    The price should rise to around $80 over the next few years
    as we move to a $6 distribution sometime in 2015.
    Jan 28, 2013. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Peer Review Credibility From Johns Hopkins Could Drive Star Scientific Shares Higher  [View article]
    When the Flint mid-study report is released
    sometime this quarter, please respond to the
    parabolic effect it may have on sales and stock
    price. Please extrapolate from there.

    If it shows to reduce hs-CRP levels in this double blind
    study by, 30 to 50% perhaps you will become long as well.
    Jul 25, 2012. 08:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bakken Update: Should Risk Be Bought In This Market?  [View article]
    Thank you Michael. You are awesome!
    Oct 28, 2011. 06:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment