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jp99

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  • The Case Against Buying Low And Selling High [View article]
    extremebanker,

    On all SA articles like Tim's, I look forward to the commentary and spin through the cheer leading quickly while looking for a different point of view on the article's thesis. Your comments, in this case, are generally in the category of attacking the messenger rather than a thoughtful counterpoint to Tim's argument.

    There would be value in your 'cherry picking' reference by presenting a caution with examples of blue chips that are no more or sector risk like banking - that would be useful.

    As I recall, you have made very good commentary to other articles and authors. Not so in this case.
    Jun 14, 2013. 01:38 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse Likes Utility Stocks: Fundamental Look At Top 6 Picks [View article]
    rnsmth,

    You are correct - the dividend 'capture' is in the form of capital gains. Casual terminology-wise, I like 'harvesting', and, better yet, richjoy403s declaration of 'special dividends' to himself.
    Apr 23, 2013. 04:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse Likes Utility Stocks: Fundamental Look At Top 6 Picks [View article]
    Rich,
    A fine answer and thank you for taking the time. My education continues.
    Perhaps in the future Chuck Carnevale will enhance the FAST tool with some magic that discloses the source of the money moving the price of a given stock.
    Thanks, again.
    Apr 22, 2013. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse Likes Utility Stocks: Fundamental Look At Top 6 Picks [View article]
    Chuck,
    Not knowing the detail of your future article, I do hope you include a discussion of historical volatility as apart of the decision process for selling to capture multiple years of dividends - with an expectation that future volatility 'might' be expected too create a good re-entry point.
    I keep looking at CL, JNJ, and KMB over a varying number of past years and conclude that CL is not very volatile and I have no data to believe that will change in the future - so, absent a major market meltdown, CL is will probably just climb back to its normalized PE - and probably not present a much better entry point. KMB and JNJ have a different historical volatility profile and could be candidates for some selling to capture 'future' dividends with some reasonable expectation that a good re-entry point could appear.

    Understanding how FAST does future forecasting, I do a mental overlay of my view of the historical volatility pattern onto the FAST forecast chart to get a feel for probability of the curves. I'll stop right there since there is no end to the analytical choices in something as data rich as the market.

    I look forward to your article.
    Apr 22, 2013. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse Likes Utility Stocks: Fundamental Look At Top 6 Picks [View article]
    Rich,

    Regarding your comment "...when we have sufficiently reduced the supply of buyers ...." , how do you see that in the breakdown of institutions verses retail buyers?
    I've been looking at Chowder's view (I think it was his view) that institutions can move price dramatically and provide support at various price points while retail investors represent far fewer shares and rarely drive price movement. (That's very rough view of what I believe Chowder noted on his blog).
    My simple interpretation is that institutions are the primary drivers of the higher valuations in utilities and until they decide differently, the valuation will remain higher. The cash on the sidelines will matter if it's institutional cash. Related - any future correction will be paced by the selling rate of institutions, not the retail investor.
    Your thoughts are appreciated.
    Apr 22, 2013. 04:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Double-Edged Sword With DRIP Dividend Investing [View article]
    Tim,

    I enjoy - and learn from - all of your articles. Well done.

    Point of clarification on this article, however. You are, I believe, describing DPPs - Direct Purchase Programs - while making reference to DRIPs - Dividend Re-Investment Plans. These are different things, but can be complimentary.

    Since I've never DPP'd, do you know if a DPP requires DRIPing if there is a dividend or can one take the dividend as cash?

    Thank you.
    Apr 9, 2013. 05:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Value, Growth And Income After The Recent Run Up? Check Out These Tech Titans [View article]
    Chuck,

    FAST Graphs is an excellent tool and, as I get smarter on DGI I'm sure I'll upgrade to the Pro version. Soon, I hope.

    Observation for you. I have been long MSFT since 1993 and my gut tells me that INTC and MSFT will share a similar fate on a similar timeline if enterprise ever begins evolving away from MSFT products on any significant scale. I think the two are tied at the hip and mid-to-long term success for each will depend on how well they can evolve. It's getting a little late. Given my position in MSFT, I, personally, wouldn't add INTC.

    Also, correlations are interesting. I brought up an MSFT price chart on Yahoo for 1994 forward and did a compare with INTC. They are almost lockstep in pattern. Your Price/Sales and PE/Interest Rates charts show them roughly similar but not as tightly correlated as price movement. I added Cisco to the price chart and it follows the same pattern. Correlations are, also, tools to think with. Perhaps this simply shows the big PC era tech titans dominating the same enterprise marketplace, and nothing more.

    Aside from accepting generous dividends, the real question is longer term future earnings and where those will come from.

    Thanks
    Apr 5, 2013. 04:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Myths 11-15 [View article]
    David,

    Thanks for the response.

    A few clarifications - (1) I have an extended watch list that has included your selections except for WU and CA. (2) My interest is in learning how experienced DGI investors value stocks and determine entry and exit points - I have no interest getting specific recommendations from you or any other SA poster. Anecdotal references that interest me may go through my own DD.

    Your response was excellent on the front end in describing your screening methodology, and I thank you for that.

    My comment on your 'excellent timing' was in the context of being ahead of the updraft in the DOW and rails and the SWY earnings bump in Feb/2013, all of which were unknowns at your purchase time. And, I understand, you bought on value, not timing.

    My question regarding selling was clear about asking "in general terms" ("...... in general terms, when you will sell given the historical volatility, perhaps flat price history, in a few cases current price recovering to previous levels and so forth - but in all cases still undervalued per FAST Graphs."). I infer from your response that the items in my question are not a factor for you and you will hold as long as you see value in the positions. That's useful to know but implies that you do not set a specific exit point for non-core when you buy. That, too, is useful to know.

    Thanks, again. Your posts are valuable reading for me, and I'm sure that's true for many others.
    Apr 1, 2013. 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Myths 11-15 [View article]
    David,

    On the November non-core buys (CSX, WU, NSC, SWY, SPLS, CA) - your timing was excellent.

    Please drop the other shoe for your followers and let us know, in general terms, when you will sell given the historical volatility, perhaps flat price history, in a few cases current price recovering to previous levels and so forth - but in all cases still undervalued per FAST Graphs.

    Thank you.
    Mar 30, 2013. 05:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illinois Tool Works Dividend Stock Analysis 2013 [View article]
    Well done, very helpful.
    Mar 18, 2013. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CenturyLink: What Lies Ahead For This Giant [View article]
    Patrick,

    A thought for future reference. The early warning on CTL was the lack of a dividend increase in the last two years and a huge dividend payout ratio of almost 200% in each of the last two years.

    I don't claim any unique knowledge but have read enough from smart people publishing here in SA that both factors - a frozen dividend and an unsustainable payout ratio should be, individually or together, a large red flag and reason to sell, if you are a dividend growth investor and don't want to lose capital.

    Good luck.
    Mar 18, 2013. 03:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Reinvestment [View instapost]
    Chowder,
    Thanks for the response. Again, I value your thinking and experience.

    Have you ever viewed this question from the point of volatility? Meaning, historical volatility may say there may be a very favorable re-entry point on the stock harvested. So often I see SA references to 'rinse, wash, and repeat' where it's a total return play, often with a cyclical stock.

    I can see the argument either way and your response is pretty clear - you just don't do 'rinse, wash, and repeat', if I read you correctly.

    Thank you.
    Mar 13, 2013. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Reinvestment [View instapost]
    Chowder,
    I'd welcome your thinking and experience on this "rule" I am developing. (I, also, re-invest all dividends.)

    Rule: If total return for a non-core holding reaches 40%, sell if you can harvest at least 5 years of expected dividends, compounded.

    Thank you.
    Mar 11, 2013. 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A High-Yield, Low-Payout Dividend Growth Model Portfolio For 2013 [View article]
    Jeff,
    LMT shows a 99% debt/capital number in FAST Graphs. At what point does this become a concern?

    Thank you.
    Mar 9, 2013. 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sleep Well At Night With This Dividend Aristocrat You Can Buy Right Now [View article]
    Brad,

    Thank you. The numbers you provide from SNL match Robert Schwartz' data at http://bit.ly/12lYJas .

    Taking it back to 8 years, as noted in the earnings transcript statement, the dividend growth rate appears to be far from the stated "7% per annum". Rather than a delivery "in spades", it is more like "a modest and consistent dividend growth rate".

    I'm learning and would appreciate knowing how you view this disparity.
    Mar 3, 2013. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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