One Truth About Amazon (That You Probably Didn't Know) [View article]
Jake, Nice article. I was surprised to see such à dismal quarterly revenue figure especially international sales based on Alexa.com data. Active users are not growing rapidly enough ( only 12 million last quarter) despite all kind new initiatives. Future growth should come from oversees websites. THE main issue is That Amazon does not have à strong enough présence in China ( 26th most visited website). In THE conference call THE CFO mentioned That they are investing heavily in China so hopefully they Will get th tra tuin they got in Japan last quarter ( number of visitors doubled)
Paulo, pretty nice research. What boggles me is That none of THE Amazon analist have à sell rating on THE stock at such high levels and disappointing q4 figures. I am still in shock how bad THE international sales were.
Dear Alex, I thought your article was okay until I read your price targets thru 2018. Could you please explain how do yet get to these price targets, because I think they are way to high!!!!
I agree with you that the international sales opportunities are really big for Amazon but I think they already should have taken place in q4 2012. According to alexa.com data the traffic increased by 50% at the international Amazon sites. Especially Japan was a blow-out ( +100%) but the overall international sales growth was really bad.
It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]
Paulo, I was surprised to see these terrible figures and q1 guidance. I cannot believe how bad the international sales were. Amazon should be trading below 200 but is trading up another 6%; crazy....
Amazon Earnings Preview: 5 Metrics To Watch [View article]
Timothy, I cannot believe how bad the sales figures are. International sales were very disappointing ( single digit growth in two areas). 200 coming up...
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I agree with you that it is really strange that none of the 31 analyst have a sell rating on a share trading a different metrics than Apple/ Google etc. However expect blow-out q4 sales figures ( above 23 billion) due to the fact that there has been a rapid growth in international markets. Just over 2 more hours and we know more.
Amazon Earnings Preview: 5 Metrics To Watch [View article]
Timothy,
Good article. THE international growth in q4 should be significant. In THE terrible q3 2012 THE growth was only 20 percent, as THE number of unique visitors was flat compared to q3 2011. In q4 2012 you saw à more than 50 percent increase in visitors compared to q4 2011, so you will see à reversal in THE international sales trend. Expect them to be really good! My concern is however where future growth should come from. THE heavy investments in India ( only 1.4 million daily visitors) and China ( only 10 million daily visitors) are not taking off yet. Openings in other countries such as THE netherlands ( was expected last october) take Much longer than expected which Will slow growth and Will affect THE P/L. THE big growth this quarter comes from Japan where THE growth was almost 100 percent ( 25 million people). Therefore I expect à revenue figure above THE 23 billion, Much higher than your 21.8 billion figure. Let's see Tuesday who made THE best analysis.
It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]
I still remember that Yahoo increased from 120 to 350 within two weeks when it joined the S&P years ago. The reaction on Netflix yesterday and today seems also I little bit crazy. Slow growth 2 million on a 25 million customer base, future obligations +50%. Buying jan 2014 puts strike 100 do not sound bad. On valuation basis you should do the Apple vs Amazon spread. It will cost you 160 ( 444-284) but I think within a month it will be worth at least 210.
Let's wait and see the 29th.I expect an sales figure above the 23 billion, but the big issue is the profit.
HS, Bezos sold Same amount in 2011, so it is not à such big issue. On valuation basis you would expect Amazon to be not worth 150 euro's, but you can expect rapid international growth in q4 which hopefully result in better than expected profit.
Is Inorganic Growth What's Really Driving Amazon's Sales? [View article]
Michael, Nice article. The key for it's international growth is China. Amazon.cn is the 25th most visited website in China, compared to a top 10 spot in all other countries except for Spain (15)/Italy(11)/Amazon.... (390) / Junglee.com (145) which are operational for less than two years. They need to get amazon.cn in the top 10 most visited websites of China in order to see a rapid growth in international markets. They are currently in 25th spot with on an average not even 10 million unique visitors on a daily basis. The key is probably the introduction of the Kindle. See example below. As I wrote on SA several times before Amazon.co.jp ( Japanese website) has seen a doubling of number of unique visitors since the introduction of the Kindle late november. You can expect blow-out 4th quarter international sales, despite tax issues in both UK/France. You can expect new markets: - Netherlands Amazon was expected to open here in october last year, but they still haven't. Maybe due to the fact that we have a fixed pricing book law. - Turkey rapid growing economy and more than 60 million people live their. - South Korea high usage of internet. I do not understand why they have not opened anything there yet.
Analysts Likely To Be Shocked As Amazon's Growth Disappoints [View article]
Adam, due to the limited information I can find on average spend per region I took the average spend from q4 2011 ( which is conservative). Due to relative high price of Kindles to other products such a products/CD's my average spend figure seems not to aggressive. Let's just wait for the 29th.
Analysts Likely To Be Shocked As Amazon's Growth Disappoints [View article]
Adam, You are right. If you look at the alexa.com data you see a two week dive in visits on international amazon websites ( even lower than 2011). For the quarter the amount of visits was just a fraction higher than 2011, although alexa.com does not take into account mobile visits. The big thing for Amazon is whether or not they are getting traction in China, like they are currently experiencing in Japan.( Due to introduction of Kindle). Within a month after the introduction the number of unique visitors have doubled, which is amazing because we talk about 25 million people (1,04% of world wide internet users). To guess which percentage of the 25 million actually buys, I make the following assumption; In q1 2012 they had 173 million paying customers, while they had a 10,625 % worldwide share. Based on a global amount of internet users of 2.4 billion ( figure I got from a website on end 2011 figures), this equals to 255 million unique visitors ( All figures rounded). If you divide 173/255 = 68% 68% of 25 million is 17 million new paid customer in Japan alone. In q4 2011 on a average 106 dollar got spend ( 17430mil sales /164million customers) .Assuming you have 17 million new customer you get the following increases in international revenue. See stats below. Example. Assuming you had 17 million new customers for half the quarter = 46 days and they will spend 106/92 = 1,15 dollar you have an extra revenue of 900 million in the quarter. Please note the rounding errors. percentage days extra revenu percentage inter sales 50% 46 903.380.000 12% 60% 55,2 1.084.056.000 14% 70% 64,4 1.264.732.000 17% 80% 73,6 1.445.408.000 19% 90% 82,8 1.626.084.000 22% 100% 92 1.806.760.000 24%
This shows you q4 international sales should be significant higher, compared to last quarter. As said many times before. In q3 number of unique visitors according to alexa.com almost flat while the sales increased by 20%. My assumption of 106 dollar average spend is also conservative because on average the q-on-q increase on yearly basis is around 2 to 3%
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I was surprised to see such à dismal quarterly revenue figure especially international sales based on Alexa.com data.
Active users are not growing rapidly enough ( only 12 million last quarter) despite all kind new initiatives.
Future growth should come from oversees websites. THE main issue is That Amazon does not have à strong enough présence in China ( 26th most visited website). In THE conference call THE CFO mentioned That they are investing heavily in China so hopefully they Will get th tra tuin they got in Japan last quarter ( number of visitors doubled)
Copy And Paste Research Reporting [View article]
What boggles me is That none of THE Amazon analist have à sell rating on THE stock at such high levels and disappointing q4 figures. I am still in shock how bad THE international sales were.
Buy Amazon On Global Prosperity [View article]
I thought your article was okay until I read your price targets thru 2018. Could you please explain how do yet get to these price targets, because I think they are way to high!!!!
I agree with you that the international sales opportunities are really big for Amazon but I think they already should have taken place in q4 2012. According to alexa.com data the traffic increased by 50% at the international Amazon sites. Especially Japan was a blow-out ( +100%) but the overall international sales growth was really bad.
It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]
I was surprised to see these terrible figures and q1 guidance.
I cannot believe how bad the international sales were.
Amazon should be trading below 200 but is trading up another 6%; crazy....
Amazon Earnings Preview: 5 Metrics To Watch [View article]
I cannot believe how bad the sales figures are. International sales were very disappointing ( single digit growth in two areas).
200 coming up...
Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders [View article]
However expect blow-out q4 sales figures ( above 23 billion) due to the fact that there has been a rapid growth in international markets.
Just over 2 more hours and we know more.
Amazon Earnings Preview: 5 Metrics To Watch [View article]
Good article.
THE international growth in q4 should be significant.
In THE terrible q3 2012 THE growth was only 20 percent, as THE number of unique visitors was flat compared to q3 2011.
In q4 2012 you saw à more than 50 percent increase in visitors compared to q4 2011, so you will see à reversal in THE international sales trend. Expect them to be really good!
My concern is however where future growth should come from.
THE heavy investments in India ( only 1.4 million daily visitors) and China ( only 10 million daily visitors) are not taking off yet. Openings in other countries such as THE netherlands ( was expected last october) take Much longer than expected which Will slow growth and Will affect THE P/L.
THE big growth this quarter comes from Japan where THE growth
was almost 100 percent ( 25 million people).
Therefore I expect à revenue figure above THE 23 billion, Much higher than your 21.8 billion figure.
Let's see Tuesday who made THE best analysis.
It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]
The reaction on Netflix yesterday and today seems also I little bit crazy. Slow growth 2 million on a 25 million customer base, future obligations +50%. Buying jan 2014 puts strike 100 do not sound bad.
On valuation basis you should do the Apple vs Amazon spread. It will cost you 160 ( 444-284) but I think within a month it will be worth at least 210.
Let's wait and see the 29th.I expect an sales figure above the 23 billion, but the big issue is the profit.
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On valuation basis you would expect Amazon to be not worth 150 euro's, but you can expect rapid international growth in q4 which hopefully result in better than expected profit.
Is Inorganic Growth What's Really Driving Amazon's Sales? [View article]
Nice article.
The key for it's international growth is China. Amazon.cn is the 25th most visited website in China, compared to a top 10 spot in all other countries except for Spain (15)/Italy(11)/Amazon.... (390) / Junglee.com (145) which are operational for less than two years.
They need to get amazon.cn in the top 10 most visited websites of China in order to see a rapid growth in international markets. They are currently in 25th spot with on an average not even 10 million unique visitors on a daily basis.
The key is probably the introduction of the Kindle. See example below.
As I wrote on SA several times before Amazon.co.jp ( Japanese website) has seen a doubling of number of unique visitors since the introduction of the Kindle late november.
You can expect blow-out 4th quarter international sales, despite tax issues in both UK/France.
You can expect new markets:
- Netherlands Amazon was expected to open here in october last year, but they still haven't. Maybe due to the fact that we have a fixed pricing book law.
- Turkey rapid growing economy and more than 60 million people live their.
- South Korea high usage of internet. I do not understand why they have not opened anything there yet.
Analysts Likely To Be Shocked As Amazon's Growth Disappoints [View article]
Due to relative high price of Kindles to other products such a products/CD's my average spend figure seems not to aggressive.
Let's just wait for the 29th.
Analysts Likely To Be Shocked As Amazon's Growth Disappoints [View article]
You are right. If you look at the alexa.com data you see a two week dive in visits on international amazon websites ( even lower than 2011). For the quarter the amount of visits was just a fraction higher than 2011, although alexa.com does not take into account mobile visits.
The big thing for Amazon is whether or not they are getting traction in China, like they are currently experiencing in Japan.( Due to introduction of Kindle).
Within a month after the introduction the number of unique visitors have doubled, which is amazing because we talk about 25 million people (1,04% of world wide internet users).
To guess which percentage of the 25 million actually buys, I make the following assumption;
In q1 2012 they had 173 million paying customers, while they had a 10,625 % worldwide share. Based on a global amount of internet users of 2.4 billion ( figure I got from a website on end 2011 figures), this equals to 255 million unique visitors ( All figures rounded).
If you divide 173/255 = 68% 68% of 25 million is 17 million new paid customer in Japan alone.
In q4 2011 on a average 106 dollar got spend ( 17430mil sales /164million customers) .Assuming you have 17 million new customer you get the following increases in international revenue.
See stats below. Example. Assuming you had 17 million new customers for half the quarter = 46 days and they will spend 106/92 = 1,15 dollar you have an extra revenue of 900 million in the quarter. Please note the rounding errors.
percentage days extra revenu percentage inter sales
50% 46 903.380.000 12%
60% 55,2 1.084.056.000 14%
70% 64,4 1.264.732.000 17%
80% 73,6 1.445.408.000 19%
90% 82,8 1.626.084.000 22%
100% 92 1.806.760.000 24%
This shows you q4 international sales should be significant higher, compared to last quarter. As said many times before. In q3 number of unique visitors according to alexa.com almost flat while the sales increased by 20%.
My assumption of 106 dollar average spend is also conservative because on average the q-on-q increase on yearly basis is around 2 to 3%