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mortegaai1974

mortegaai1974
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  • 1 More Reason To Hate Amazon's Valuation [View article]
    Timothy,

    Your point 7 is incorrect if you compare q1 2013 vs q1 2012

    2013 2012
    16070 13180 revenue
    209 173 amount customer in millions
    76,88995215 76,1849711 average spend per customer
    Jul 2 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    Joe,

    I totally disagree with you.
    Please see comparison best traffic date q2 2012 vs this week 2013
    per amazon website. On the left you see the amount of increase in traffic assuming no growth in worldwide internet users ( which is very conservative)
    amount last year high q2 2nd week June 2013
    9.405.575 amazon.es 0,08 0,526
    15.275.039 amazon.de 0,98 1,715
    11.450.266 amazon.it 0,1 0,612
    223.472.622 amazon.com 6,2 11,68
    13.398.735 amazon.co.uk 0,8 1,451
    37.044.977 amazon.co.jp 0,97 2,42
    1.106.538 junglee.com 0,05 0,067
    8.659.865 amazon.cn 0,4 0,64
    4.762.926 amazon.ca 0,08 0,302
    13.687.397 amazon.fr 0,27 0,892
    110.654 amazon.com.br 0 0,0053
    amazon.in 0 0,0609
    338.374.595 - 9,935 20,3712

    Regards,

    Maarten
    Jun 13 05:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    Paolo,

    The big growth for Amazon needs to come from China and Japan. The recent introduction of the Kindle family in China could finally give some growth traction in the region.My analysis of Comscore data shows Amazon's reach has more than doubled the last two weeks from a year ago.
    The growth in Europe however is tepid (specifically the UK economy is in bad shape) so overall International sales growth will be on the low side.
    You should expect a higher revenue growth than last quarter.
    As a value investor I still do not understand why people are ignoring the fact that Amazon hardly makes any profit, and their level of cash. They can't afford too many mistakes.
    However it still remains one of the most amazing companies in the world, with an unprecendented service level.
    Jun 13 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Long-Term Earnings Model And Estimates [View article]
    Nice article Paulo, can't wait to see q1 2013 results.
    Apr 23 08:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Couple Of Comments On JPMorgan's Downgrade [View article]
    Santos, at the time I was an optiontrader in a certain stock it was JP Morgan who made the perfect short call on the stock.
    Mar 14 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley's Ever-Changing Amazon.com Bullish Story [View article]
    Paulo, Nice article. I just wondered where you get THE reports from.
    Feb 14 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Truth About Amazon (That You Probably Didn't Know) [View article]
    Jake, Nice article.
    I was surprised to see such à dismal quarterly revenue figure especially international sales based on Alexa.com data.
    Active users are not growing rapidly enough ( only 12 million last quarter) despite all kind new initiatives.
    Future growth should come from oversees websites. THE main issue is That Amazon does not have à strong enough présence in China ( 26th most visited website). In THE conference call THE CFO mentioned That they are investing heavily in China so hopefully they Will get th tra tuin they got in Japan last quarter ( number of visitors doubled)
    Feb 8 02:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copy And Paste Research Reporting [View article]
    Paulo, pretty nice research.
    What boggles me is That none of THE Amazon analist have à sell rating on THE stock at such high levels and disappointing q4 figures. I am still in shock how bad THE international sales were.
    Feb 5 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Amazon On Global Prosperity [View article]
    Dear Alex,
    I thought your article was okay until I read your price targets thru 2018. Could you please explain how do yet get to these price targets, because I think they are way to high!!!!

    I agree with you that the international sales opportunities are really big for Amazon but I think they already should have taken place in q4 2012. According to alexa.com data the traffic increased by 50% at the international Amazon sites. Especially Japan was a blow-out ( +100%) but the overall international sales growth was really bad.
    Feb 3 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]
    Paulo,
    I was surprised to see these terrible figures and q1 guidance.
    I cannot believe how bad the international sales were.
    Amazon should be trading below 200 but is trading up another 6%; crazy....
    Jan 29 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings Preview: 5 Metrics To Watch [View article]
    Timothy,
    I cannot believe how bad the sales figures are. International sales were very disappointing ( single digit growth in two areas).
    200 coming up...
    Jan 29 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders [View article]
    I agree with you that it is really strange that none of the 31 analyst have a sell rating on a share trading a different metrics than Apple/ Google etc.
    However expect blow-out q4 sales figures ( above 23 billion) due to the fact that there has been a rapid growth in international markets.
    Just over 2 more hours and we know more.
    Jan 29 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings Preview: 5 Metrics To Watch [View article]
    Timothy,

    Good article.
    THE international growth in q4 should be significant.
    In THE terrible q3 2012 THE growth was only 20 percent, as THE number of unique visitors was flat compared to q3 2011.
    In q4 2012 you saw à more than 50 percent increase in visitors compared to q4 2011, so you will see à reversal in THE international sales trend. Expect them to be really good!
    My concern is however where future growth should come from.
    THE heavy investments in India ( only 1.4 million daily visitors) and China ( only 10 million daily visitors) are not taking off yet. Openings in other countries such as THE netherlands ( was expected last october) take Much longer than expected which Will slow growth and Will affect THE P/L.
    THE big growth this quarter comes from Japan where THE growth
    was almost 100 percent ( 25 million people).
    Therefore I expect à revenue figure above THE 23 billion, Much higher than your 21.8 billion figure.
    Let's see Tuesday who made THE best analysis.
    Jan 27 07:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]
    I still remember that Yahoo increased from 120 to 350 within two weeks when it joined the S&P years ago.
    The reaction on Netflix yesterday and today seems also I little bit crazy. Slow growth 2 million on a 25 million customer base, future obligations +50%. Buying jan 2014 puts strike 100 do not sound bad.
    On valuation basis you should do the Apple vs Amazon spread. It will cost you 160 ( 444-284) but I think within a month it will be worth at least 210.

    Let's wait and see the 29th.I expect an sales figure above the 23 billion, but the big issue is the profit.
    Jan 25 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Run: Coming To An End? [View article]
    HS, Bezos sold Same amount in 2011, so it is not à such big issue.
    On valuation basis you would expect Amazon to be not worth 150 euro's, but you can expect rapid international growth in q4 which hopefully result in better than expected profit.
    Jan 18 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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