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jarekjac

jarekjac
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  • Interest Rates Make Stock Bubble Bigger Than In 2000 And 1929 [View article]
    This is the best article I came across here. Just wondering how the data would look for Japan, with extended history of low interest rates post 1990 top. Just by looking where the NIKKEI is now compared to 1990 you are likely right that low interest rates beget lower PE.
    May 23, 2014. 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • By 2015 Hard Commodity Prices Will Have Collapsed [View article]
    Nice explanation and in agreement with charts for hard commodities that are pointing down. Monetary inflation (money printing) has already levitated commodity prices for a while. That's already build in. Speculation alone can't sustain the commodity bull (that has already ended, but most failed to notice) and the prices will come down hard for the reasons stated very clearly in this article.
    Dec 16, 2012. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Chart Of The Day: Aussie Dollar Pressures Commodities [View article]
    Looks like rolling-over right shoulder
    Dec 1, 2012. 12:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Be Worth $1111, But Shares Won't Get There Anytime Soon [View article]
    This beats handsomely "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." from Irving Fisher.
    Nov 27, 2012. 11:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Tell When The Commodity Supercycle Is Over [View article]
    Well, as a buyer you should certainly care about the label attached to the product you are buying and debunk it if it is inaccurate. Would you be buying "A Cure For All Ailments" (panaceum) without examining if it's true?
    Nov 23, 2012. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bearish Case For Gold, Technical And Fundamental. [View instapost]
    I gave few fundamental reasons in this post why gold may go down. Regarding the outcomes certainly it can go up, down or stay the same and I fully realize that. Regarding relationship with dollar, I agree that's where the answer is. Interestingly today's move in Euro while impressive did not change the technical picture yet. I just updated Euro charts on my stockcharts list and will put together post with that here. One of my major points is that even if gold corrects to $1000 it still would be in an uptrend and such magnitude of correction is quite possible and happened during the last gold bull in 1970's when gold fundamentals were arguably more bullish than now. Going to $700 would actually mean that gold bull is completely over.
    Nov 23, 2012. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Tell When The Commodity Supercycle Is Over [View article]
    I am glad we agree that in deflation price of gold will go down as opposed to Youngone's views that it will go up. As to the definition of money, just read it again. When did you last buy anything with gold? If it was just dollars, you just sold it for money, keep in mind that it is not a two way road, that way you would call your grocery supplies money.
    Nov 23, 2012. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Tell When The Commodity Supercycle Is Over [View article]
    I think you are talking about "barter economy" which develops with hyperinflation and people start using hard assets as money trying to avoid paper money that loses value every day (literally). We are not there yet and gold and other hard assets are not money and any significant bout of deflation will prove that again as it did in 2008.
    Nov 22, 2012. 12:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Tell When The Commodity Supercycle Is Over [View article]
    All this chart reflects is inflationary boom when commodities were rising faster than stocks. It went on in 2000s and ended up badly in 2007-2008. Since then stocks and commodities have been tightly correlated as reflected on this chart by what appears to be kind of consolidation or beginning of a reversal. In a deflationary bear market when both assets classes would go down the consolidation would just continue while gold could decline severely. Folks comparing current situation to 1930s forget that gold was money than, but not now.
    Nov 22, 2012. 09:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Basel III And Gold [View article]
    Its in my instablog. A version with more charts is on my private blog, all linked to my profile. I also keep chart list on stockcharts.com, linked from my private blog.
    Nov 21, 2012. 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Basel III And Gold [View article]
    Hi Interesting Times, they are indeed. I am primarily technical analyst (hobby) and I call things as I see them, and as I was bullish on gold and silver in 2000 and 2001, I am bearish now. Good Luck.
    J.
    Nov 21, 2012. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of The Commodity Super Cycle? [View article]
    Many excellent points in this article. Just few side comments. Seems like the “Commodity super cycle” is just an attention-catching phrase, used by Citi’s analyst just for that, to get attention (word “supercycle” is being used in the investment publishing in very similar way as big-breasted women on Latin TV shows). In reality commodities rise rather in a stair-step fashion: periods of rapid increase in prices followed by oscillation around the new median for another extended period of time. Just for simplicity let’s look at the crude oil prices. From 1950s till early 1970s oil sold for between $2.50 and $3.20, then jumped to between $20 and $30 until 2002 (I am not including short spikes outside that range). A nice, short reference is http://bit.ly/SQeY5D. About same revaluation happened for gold. I do not have to do the math for you on that. In 2000s looks like we moved the range and its median for oil higher again. However, this time it may be rather 3 to 5-fold for oil and bit more for gold. The real question is whether the process is done, and we will have another extended period of price-stability (it was 2 decades last time) or the market is just in the middle of this process of rising prices ( “this time is different” ). If the appreciation is done, gold bulls are due for another long period of pain (the new median could be $700 or $1000 or about), and in this sense the analyst could be right, just using the phrase “super cycle” is not entirely correct.
    Nov 20, 2012. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why America Is About To Join Europe's Austerity Mess And What To Do About It [View article]
    Kudos for an intelligent article and good discussion here. Austerity is coming to the USA and even in a lite version that is likely here, it will likely have very negative impact as outlined in this article. I would not count on gold to walk on the water in such circumstances and technical are pointing down as I put it out in my instablog
    Nov 19, 2012. 03:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Basel III And Gold [View article]
    If so, why Euro was at 142-144 then compared to 128 now?
    Nov 19, 2012. 03:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Basel III And Gold [View article]
    Thank you for this lengthy gold infomercial. Plenty of those around lately, but could you explain why gold is 200 dollars cheaper now than at its top over a year ago, if that what you are posting about has any bearing on the gold's price?
    Nov 18, 2012. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
18 Comments
6 Likes