jonreagan

The Writing Is on the Wall: Banks Today, the Rest Tomorrow

Nothing more here than the stench of a short pig. Love hearing them squeal when the market rallies like it did this week.

Davis's Tuesday Outlook

Interesting that "cheesecake" mentions GS...the company that has managed to profit from its own bad loans.

One show I was watching last night (Tues.) made the observation that we need at least two days without any bad news. (This is kind of tough, given that the bar has been set pretty low in terms of what qualifies for news.) The show's hosts went on to say that today (Wed) might be such a day, given that no major government reports were scheduled to be released.

And what do we wake up to? GS announcing that they now officially expect a recession. Well. I guess we just add this to a long list of other suspicious announcements:
--Morgan Keegan analysts downgrading RIMM 3-4 weeks before their 12/22 earnings announcement, creating a great buying opportunity.
--Bank of America's downgrade of INTC, aggravating the NASDAQ's downturn relative to the rest of the market...again, two weeks before major tech companies report earnings. What a great time now to buy APPL!
--And of course, then there's the occasional rumor that comes out of nowhere, and swings prices wildly before anyone steps forward to refute it.

Let's face it, we all have similar stories that could fill a book. This system is gamed and rigged in a way that turns retail investors into chumps if they're not careful.

Why Stocks Will Struggle in 2008

AND ANOTHER THING....

You would think to read this piece of garbage that "all sectors are created equal". Is Ag goint to lose the same % as the Financials? How about Infrastructure, or Home Builders? The lack of any depth in this rather feeble "commentary" is pretty awful.

I smell the stench of a short pig here...please go ply your ruinous trade elsewhere.

Why Stocks Will Struggle in 2008

SA needs to filter these articles more carefully. The objective of a Seeking Alpha article should be to to tell us something we didn't previously know (inform), or to offer a new (perhaps contrarian) viewpoint that isn't already out there (persuade). This article does neither, and is just a re-hash of things which have already been published.

Greenspan's Christmas Carol Warning

Alan Greenspan's comments haven't been the least bit helpful in clarifying the complex set of challenges that our economy faces today. Rather, their sole purpose seems to lie in absolving himself of any responsibility or role in creating today's mess; to hear him speak, one would think he had nothing to do with creating the "real estate bubble"....he probably maintains that there no such thing exists. But why should he be any different? The CEO's of our major companies don't assume any accountability for thier performance.....guys like Bob Nardelli leave behind a big mess at Home Depot, and get promoted! Let's face it, Chysler will really get what it deserves at this point...and I don't mean a bailout.

Ben Bernanke's approach doesn't seem to be understood or appreciated in a society that believes there's a quick fix for everything; only time will tell. Complex problems often require complex, or at least thoughtful and innovative solutions. Perhaps a hopeful sign is that after several talking heads suggested that Mr. Bernanke had destroyed the equity markets (damn it, he's just RUINED our Christmas!) the markets seem to be functioning normally, and liquidity seems to be flowing again. And hopefully, we've begun to break the cycle which is Greenspan's true legacy--that the Fed will always step in to offer rate cuts to hungry markets (addicts?), offering short term fixes, but long term damage. For all we hear about the need for long range, "strategic" approaches, maybe 2008 will actually see them begin to take hold.

Should the Fed Do Nothing Today?

Right on. Ironically, it was a US Senator from Oklahoma--populist Fred Harris who said it best: take the rich off welfare!

Was Tuesday's Fed Cut Meaningless?

As always, very well said. Today's inflation numbers---combined with respectable retail sales for November--suggest that Bernanke may have gotten it just right. I know just enough about monetary and fiscal policy to be dangerous. But at this point, we have relatively full employment, as well as strong GDP numbers through the 3rd quarter; this is not especially surprising, given the massive tax cuts and deficit spending of the last 6 years. So should the Fed really be embarking on a monetary policy of aggressive rate cuts at this point?

Against this backdrop, it's especially aggravating to hear Alan Greenspan spouting off about how recession is now a real possibility, at the same time absolving himself of any and all responsibility for the current housing mess and liquidity crunch. He's very much like the clowns who have been running our major financial institutions; Chuck Prince's excuse for Citi's massive write-downs/bad loans was that "when they're playing the music, you have to dance"...hmmm. No wonder he was so well paid, with such profound thinking.

Similarly, most of "the maestro's" pronouncements since publishing his memoirs (a real literary masterpiece) are aimed at convincing us that "it's not his fault!" Accountability is rare these days, let's face it.

The markets--and people like Jim Cramer--have become like opium addicts, screaming for a fix. We've had enough of easy fixes....hopefully, this Fed will continue to seek a balance of sensible (and creative) policies that promote long term growth. As a trader and investor, my balance sheet would look a lot better today had they gone for the half point, and played Santa Claus. But just remember the let-down you felt when you found out that Santa was actually just a big lie.